RE: Lacklustre finance10 Apr 2018 13:55
Thanks ddubya and thanks for your take Nigwit.
My reaction is negative. I hope it's unfounded but I can articulate why.
Deciding to invest in a new technology company is always a balancing act between the size of the opportunity and the costs incurred to get there. Timing is key. The update has changed my expectations regarding both formal and informal guidance given previously by the company. The formal part, that we are funded until mid 2019, is blown completely out of the water I think. The informal part, that Dow revenues are increasing and that we are in full execution mode (I would expect some sort of ramp up last 1/2), really doesn't look credible.
Unfortunately, the text of the update is obfuscatory. It's not possible to draw any conclusions as to whether such concerns are unfounded or whether Nanoco is struggling. Some specifics...
Display (my expectations lowered):
- Dow is a dead duck. If we get anything from them over the next year it will be a bonus.
- Merck is several years off doing anything significant. This is as expected. It's a great partnership but as we know, due to natural product cycles, it takes a couple of years at least to be up and running properly. As they're working toward the future product area of the IP I would think it'll be 5 years before we get anything significant from them.
- AUO really does look like the partner Nanoco always needed. The 4K monitors and the BFGDs appear to be amazing products. I'm sure they will establish a reputation for quality. They're niche though. Revenue would be significant if I were not now less confident on costs and with nothing else coming from Dow.
The new partner (sounds great but short term liability):
- Obviously a very big and significant opportunity.
- CAPEX maybe covered but I doubt OPEX is. So all the new staff, admin and any further research will be paid for by Nanoco. This is the main reason I don't think existing financial guidance still stands.
- No disclosure on the upfront or milestone payments. We have nothing to gauge whether it will even start to cover the additional costs this year.
- Taking staff from Display doesn't feel right to me. Display is supposed to be the main driver for the company. Everything depends on whether the management is doing the right thing here.
Other business lines (expectations unchanged). All are very promising but still a long way off. I can't see any significant income for many years:
- Stadium lights - Qatar 2022.
- Careware in discussion with the Chicago Cubs. This is not going to become a big business quickly.
- Agricultural lighting is not an industry yet beyond a few show offs trying to get on BBC Click.
- Good to hear progress in LIfe Sciences but but I worry there's potential for significant cost increases. Clinical trials are not cheap.
Overall, financial risk has increased. I haven't sold any today but might trim my holding by 50% if the SP rises above my average and buy back on news