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https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/RDSB/share-news/Key-U-S-Energy-Pipeline-Closes-After-Cyberattack/85054317?xref=newsalert

Hi Boyobach
Yes perversely as Brent slips back RDSB now seems to be rising but it goes ex div next Thursday so maybe more attention is being focused on it and maybe people have digested that the OP strength will be additive to RDS cash generation this quarter - $400m pa per $1 / barrel on upstream operations alone plus $125m pa for LNG
Hopefully another good chunk off debt in Q2 and closing in on buybacks and dividend hike

Ahead of results and CCD announcement on Monday GLA

At 1535

Mystery solved I guess

II swap

Ouch a block of 4,000,000 shares sold at 1352
Guess there’ll be a lot of institutions buying and selling chunky positions but not something you see every day

Boyobach

I’d be intrigued to know how off the OP formula RDSB is now

Albeit there seems to have been a bit of a rally in the past 2 hours

Really should’ve taken a few more when they dipped below 1300 maybe but scope limited unfortunately

Still maybe I should before they go ex div on 13th

Neversellshell22

It’s a fascinating trade off

Jessica Uhl presentation clearly states that RDS is going to allocate 20-30% of cashflow from operations but the split between dividend and buybacks isn’t specific

The dividend policy is currently just a 4% annual increase which isn’t going to make the shares attractive v peers but RDS has for the past 4 years outperformed on cash generation so if it’s shares continue to languish then cancelling them at half the historic level of £26 is a no brainier as has been pointed out it will reduce the dividend bill forever and maybe the market will apprehend this could ratchet up the percentage of distribution going forward or at least allow it to hit the upper end of the range. With every $10 rise in Brent RDS generates an extra $4 billion upstream $1.2 billion in integrated gas and for every $10 increase in JCC3 an extra $1.2 billion in integrated gas and Wael Sawan Director of upstream is due to give a presentation on upstream on 25 May.
I’m accumulating albeit with cash constraints from an overweight position, effectively capitalising dividends as I go.
When this share pops it’ll pop but timing is the mischievous aspect. DYOR GLA

Hi Neversellshell22

I think Q2 will have to be a corker to deliver the target as that’d mean $6.25 billion off Q1 debt whereas Q1 delivered $4.1 but it’s not impossible though if the target is substantially reached then I think the dividend policy could be reset for Q3 and in any event I’d like to think they might do another tweak maybe up another 4% off back of Q2?
There’s weird stuff going on about their energy transition though to be honest the Methodist church flogging £21m doesn't concern me as much as the possibility big oil get into a ****ing contest to woo II on adherence to Paris climate accord objectives. TBH I think once dividend yield is reset pension funds aren’t going to shun the shares and they’ll re rate in next 3-6 m unless **** happens and we get COVID-21 so Though a bit overweight on RDSB I’m a weak buyer at the moment but the longer the share sits at these levels the keener I’ll be to add including reinvestment of dividends which are ratcheting up now I’ve added but as usual DYOR and GLA here’s to the roaring 20s

Two of them at 6.03 and 6.04 so over £60K worth
Unlikely a PI unless lottery winner having a punt
Something going on - hopefully we’ll find out what that something is soon!

Neversellshell22

Thanks but to be honest wish I wasn’t ..... ;-)

Maybe the bulls will win next time and I think we should make this a regular quarterly thing :-)

Think problem is it’s less attractive than the alternatives right now but will catch up - divi yield near 3.6% BP 5.4% with BP having hit debt reduction target already
UT took out 1.5 m shares so net 4m sold more than bought
Brent slipped back but OP very high v historic levels will continue to drive strong profit in RDS so I’m a holder to weak buyer at this level - next quarter results will make more of an impact if they don’t disappoint market IMHO DYOR GLA

My share price competition entry for close of business isn’t looking so off piste after all but I can’t claim any credit for knowing why I chose that

Meanwhile SP has fallen back which I half expected though not entirely sure why

Boyobach

Pretty sure current dividend yield is a big negative for FM to back this oil majors but that’ll change if debt continues to reduce and we move into territory of raising dividend to percentage of operating cashflow

I’ll take a look at your analysis though as it’s always good to see and GLA as at these prices I'm probably going to buy some more

Lynxx

Could be to do with options expiry but also FTSE had a good run this year - interesting to see how it shakes out though

34adsaddsa

Especially with Brent futures trading at $68.33
Problem is market knows no hike in dividend until debt falls below $65 billion so institutional money elsewhere but this share is like a coiled spring and another good quarter reduction on debt will put it in sight of being able to divert 20%-30% of operating cash flow to payouts at which point yield will match or exceed BP and the share price will pop in anticipation - variants permitting so as always DYOR GLA
Think I’ll be buying more on a pull back which could happen if OP slips back or euphoria of results which were very decent dissipates

Great $71.25 billion down from $75.39 billion
Cashflow from operations was $8.29 billion
Once net debt is < $65 billion dividend payout will be 20-30% of that figure so let’s say a quarter or $2 billion a quarter
There are 7.8 billion shares in issue so that’s 25c a share in round figures give or take compared with current 17.35
At a $ exchange rate of $1.4 / £1 that’s 5.4% yield at current share price about the industry standard and a worthy objective

Thanks Boyobach I’m glad to he wrong about SP as expected slight fall but OP robuster than perhaps I expected
Think the low divi is disadvantaging the share as I saw at least 2 one million block share sales yesterday which was hardly a vote of confidence, some 8m+ in all with very much lower buying. Think things may improve relative to OP if good Q2 but may pick up a few more if price eases back this afternoon or at least stays under 1340

Neversellshell22

The Q1 2021 divi was 4% up on Q4 2020 I believe

I’ve just speculated RDS might do that again this quarter as a payment on account of their participating dividend announcement once they’re debt target is reached.

Won’t really make much difference to yield but if pace of cash generated looks good it might send a positive message to the market that this policy might continue. Might see a modest increase in SP depending on OP but until RDS yield hits 5.4% industry average I think it’ll be in the doldrums

Oh alright then £12.90 if no uplift in divi next quarter and £13.50 if there’s a further 4% uplift albeit the $ could impact the £ value of that increase. Look out for that all important debt figure at 31/3

Nice little uptick has temporarily at least pooped SP
Think US inventories came out lower than expected
Wouldn’t date predict the price tomorrow May as well toss a coin! GLA