Member Info for Barrieprov

Boyobach is it as simple as Chevron currently has a dividend yield of 4.8% which translates into a higher ratio of SP/OP than RDSB currently nearer 3.6% - the premium on Chevron to RDSB yield is 25% or have I misread the scale on your chart?

Boyobach’s analysis looks sound to me as unfortunately the OP is being underwritten and not subject to normal market forces which limits the upside for SP
Timing of a buy or sale is therefore going to be very hard ahead of Q1 results on 29th and for the foreseeable
If 1250 is a realistic possibility then I’m tempted to hold on for that as running out of available capital and overweight on this share but equally any surge in price may be sudden and based on the perception the economy has turned the corner
More likely is anticipation of that but again timing will be difficult to get right. GLA next 3-6 months will be important

FireAnt my sentiment exactly
RDSB have modestly increased their dividend for Q1 and as OP range and money tied up in receivables falls into a relatively stable channel, profit and cashflow will start to get more positive hopefully underpinning an incremental or possibly one off hike in dividend. The attraction of yield should then hopefully re rate the stock restoring the relationship between SP and dividend towards levels seen pre Covid discounted to a degree by the need for RDSB to invest capital in the transition to green energy. A 30%-50% rise from here doesn’t seem unreasonable by end 2021 /Q1 2022 but time will tell and the re will be volatility along the way. A critical deliverable will be hitting the debt reduction target so look out for that! GLA

Odd to see “O” trade of 1.5m shares go in at 1380
Quite a strange day - gradual decline in price then sharp fall but rally at end - generally FTSE very happy at 12m high See what tomorrow brings GLA

Maybe this?

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/biden_plan_targets_fossil_fuel_subsidies_worth_35b-08-apr-2021-165110-article/

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/biden_plan_targets_fossil_fuel_subsidies_worth_35b-08-apr-2021-165110-article/

Could this be hitting SP?
Seems to have gone into free fall

Hood point Pokerchips as of course gearing automatically increases even if debt stays constant when assets get marked down. I suppose it’s a question of if refinery or other fixed asset investment these can be revalued but current assets like inventory if bought at lower price and valued at cost can boost cash when realising higher value. Will be fascinating to look at balance sheet comparatives in detail as well as margin recovery as I’m guessing there’s a lag tendency with regard to effect of OP recovery

Hi Boyobach
Absolutely I understand what your formula does and I too have noticed RDSB gain relative ground lately flour to other factors. It’ll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow if Brent holds its gains since the close

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202104/royal-dutch-shell-winter-weather-weighs-on-guidance

Might be useful read

This data is a bit old but somewhere recently I saw a post asking about this so hopefully it might elicit a response from the smarter people than me in the room - GLA little did I know how heavily I’d get into this share so long after I was an active investor and sometime CFD trader

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2020/04/30/shell-slashes-dividend-we-dont-know-whats-on-the-other-side/

Sorry misread article
BP hit its debt reduction target early which probably explains its relatively good SP move this morning
I do however believe RDSB results will improve slowly which will hopefully underpin SP in medium term as it continues to track OP recovery anyway GLA and no doubt there’ll be a lot of analysis of Q1 figures when they’re published later this month

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/royal-dutch-shell-RDSB/share-news/Shell-Warns-Oil-Price-Gains-Partly-Offset-by-Hit-F/84769837

Mixed bag but debt reduction comment is positive

This year will be interesting and I’m continuing to accumulate to an overweight level but am conscious it’s a risk and would advocate as always DYOR and GLA

Nice SP bounce today up 15 or 7%
Good buy off back of fall but 20/20 hindsight of a former holder who’s still sitting on the sidelines although I’m more confident now of PFG long term viability I’m currently all in elsewhere gambling on a strong recovery in the energy sector

I’m waiting for the financial figures on 21 April I think it mentioned as difficult to make sense of the mass of figures but there’s an inference tgat tge recovery in OP is starting to improve margins albeit there’s a 6 month lag
Also tge business is still not operating at anything like full capacity so the fixed costs of tge operations will still be a drag on profits and cashflow but again there’s a hint that this is less marked than the previous quarter. I’ll buy on weakness but with a SP average of 1298 before accounting for dividend accumulation it’s probably not worth me doing more than a small amount above 1300-1350

Kenswayken

Having witnessed the decimation of the Leisure sector in general and cruise lines in particular I saw this as a recovery play and wished I’d backed my judgement a week or so ago but am very long in the energy sector specifically RDSB
Still I think this will reward patient investors and my great aunts were regulars on Transatlantic cruises in the 69s so I always promised myself one day I’d do that in style so would definitely take the 100 share qualification when I’ve flipped a few oil shares - GLA and hopefully exciting times ahead for the industry

Current SP level starting to move closer to Boyobach formula
(OP-59)x22+1280 maybe buoyed by a bit more optimism over prospects for US economic recovery? GLA

SmithS2019
Many of the variants to COVID are more infectious and there’s no guarantee a less deadly strain won’t be randomly generated. The H1N1 second wave in 1918 was significantly more deadly than the first - I’ve filtered bald_eagle and will anything not SP related so no more disinformation please

It’s called politics as sadly I do wonder about the independence of SAGE spokesmen while in other news OP appears to have recovered overnight and RDSB is hovering around 1350 and I’m hoping if it’ll stay down at this level or below I can add more at month end GLA

Nice move on PFG today Theborn

Not so much April fool as all year round one
Maybe yesterday’s drop priced in move on Brent or the undershoot in SP/OP recovering. Either way I’ll stick to patient investment as I’m clearly lacking any trading ability in terms of predicting SP movement GLA today!