Member Info for Barrieprov

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678347-exxon-points-to-healthy-q1-boost-on-higher-oil-prices-sec-filing-says?utm_source=investing.com&utm_medium=referral

Mariog someone or some institution bagged 1m stares at 6.05 average which is about 0.3% of the equity
Admittedly plenty sold but more bought today
Amigo SOA RNS though not conclusive might lift sentiment but at the moment the anxiety is provably also how quickly and sustainably we all come out of lockdown to resume normal life and free up the business models of sun prime lenders once / if FCA hurdle is successfully jumped over.

Contract trading at $62.91 a short while ago as apparently no policy statement from OPEC+ so I’m guessing SP doing to tilt down to 1300 maybe lower tomorrow and Boyobach may have called the ball on support. Holding tight but profits evaporating albeit unrealised GLA

Thanks Pokerchips - got it and will keep eye out
Best wishes

Thanks Boyobach will take your comments on board and look at charts
Interesting to speculate over performance but if industry wide then not specifically an RDSB problem

Bit of a down day relative to OP but definitely think there’s concern about recovery coming through now as SP relatively depressed versus July contract

OPEC+ meets tomorrow/ Friday and market already discounted no change in production cuts do it’s going to come down to easing lockdown off back of control of infection rates which isn’t really happening at the moment

Pokerchips is that on 29th April?

RDSB looking more volatile v OP currently
Not sure if OPEC+ is problem or wider concern about stalled global recovery if vaccine roll out doesn’t touch poorer countries soon and imported variants rain on our parade . That said Brent still trading around $64.50 while RDSB 1340 so looking more like 1230 +/- 20p in $ from a $59 baseline

Maybe a bit of nervousness being seen in SP relative to OP right now ahead of meeting as though expected production cuts will roll over for a month demand picture unclear in medium term due to COVID resurgence and so usage not likely to pick up that quickly one assumes? GLA do wish my crystal ball was working when SP hit 1518 as I’d be buying back a few hundred more shares a nil net cost now

Maybe a buying signal soon as presumably once OP stabilises and eventually rises RDSB SP movement may disproportionately increase though sentiment always plays a part in any SP and with Covid concerns in US and Europe there’s a bit of a downer on the sector in terms of demand maybe which accounts for the slippage perhaps? GLA
I’m probably going to add more though overweight already if this divergence pushes the price down towards 1300

Bit more buying - good to see it moving into 6s

Few trades no price movement clearly in need of some news hopefully not too long to wait now

Just bought at 1381 a little late in the recovery phase but taking a medium term view and capturing the slightly raised dividend with the strength of the $ giving it an extra kicker

Thanks I find your analytics a very useful rule of thumb and I’m really enjoying this share Boyobach

Interesting mits almost like RDSB behaving like an oil ETF Mathematically I guess the further you move from the mid point the more non linear the behaviour might become as
e.g. yield starts to breakdown for income investors making the share less attractive. Also earnings will probably start to improve dramatically as OP rises past a certain point as the fixed cost of RDSB operations are absorbed and margins fall toward the bottom line though the company would probably reinvest or pay down debt which would act as a buffer at least in the short term. It’s quite possible you’ve hit on Boyobach’s law of linear interpolation and it’ll certainly be fascinating to test it scientifically over the months ahead :-)

Brent futures falling back but RDSB looking weak

Am looking to top up possibly below 1350 if that doesn’t hold

GLA easy to see in hindsight that OP of $70 and concomitant SP was overdone but then again not a good idea to sell a whole position you’ve held a while only to get your timing wrong GLA and all eyes on Suez Canal I guess

Not sure if that unusual for RDSB but not an UT just a “O” block of 1m shares sold at 1377 I think

I’m thinking too that Brent uplift is as Boyobach mentionsed
a technical reaction to the tanker being stuck in the Suez Canal channel and confess to have been fascinated reading about how it might be got out so think I might just hold off buying until it’s freed in case the SP resumes a downward path which from the chart doesn’t seem unlikely- GLA and let’s hope we don’t have an environmental disaster

Buying “much” I meant to say but then 40p on 250 shares is still £100 saved

Thanks Boyobach I am watching today and was contemplating buying at 1375 but thought I’d wait to see what happens at US open as time difference only 4 hours until next week not that I’m buying more
I’ve adjusted my expectation to maybe seeing £15 again this year and £18 next if reopening isn’t further delayed and was interested by Binmer668 comment about whether there’s a last hurrah for oil but I guess in RDSB case SP might also depend on success of their green transition strategy
I can really only take a 2-3 year view on most of my investment l, possibly 3-5 depending on other factors so timing matters and the analysis you do is informative and interesting. GLA

Bimmer668 you might see 1250 the previous support level as Brent May 21 contract has now fallen below $61
I’m going to try to average down a bit but have made my job harder by buying some shares as high as 1496 which though for longer term shows how not bright I am GLA!