Member Info for Barrieprov

Windows345
That’s normally my trick but in a week I think we’ll know a lot more about the potential for the SP

So Brent futures up and SP down

I really hope announcement on 29th breaks the trend by rendering the shares more attractive on a yield basis

Only a week to go to learn how much cash generated in Q2 but I expect it’ll be a lot!

Nail sorry

Mathsprof you’ve hit the mail on the head
Berenberg upgraded CCL to hold on lower risk since the successful refinancing recognising the problems associated with the sector so I think it’s right to assume it’ll be a year or two before pre Covid SP is likely to be a possibility but at least it’s more likely than it was two weeks ago

SP gone from sub 210 to better than 260 in 4 weeks
Past no guide to future of course but we’ll done to all who stuck with it so far. I’m out at the moment as ploughed huge amount into large company recovery play in energy sector but may come back and stick for long haul next year if I make the return I hope for and can be less risk averse

My strategy too Bimmer668
Think we’re moving into an interesting period of gradually exiting demand and supply constraints coupled with a new distribution policy.
GLA and enjoy the ride

Me too Marcus Aurelius
Life’s too short and investment too hard so I tend to welcome constructive comments.

I find Boyobach’s posts very informative though there are others I follow on here too

I’ve now built up what for me is a sizeable position on RDSB but my break even is pretty close to current SP so am awaiting the dividend yield announcement on 29th July with trepidation

GLA and fingers crossed for next Thursday week

I agree Boyobach with OP futures down 10% in less than a week anything is possible though RDS probably underperforming relative to other oil majors.

Im tempted to buy if RDS sticks at this level before results come out and it’ll be interesting to see what market makes of announcement

RDSB following OP explicitly while reopening trades like cruise lines getting hammered by Covid concerns impact on economic recovery eg Carnival down 10%

I’m going to bet the ranch on RDS anywhere below 1300 before it goes ex div on 12th August but DYOR and GLA as I’m not the guy you should be listening to for advice on timing of investment decisions !

Boyobach

At the moment RDSB fall appears to be in line with both but if negative sentiment toward inflation continues maybe RDS will go out of step we shall see? Inflation worries will hit dollar price and commodities but it’s unclear how that’ll develop

Boyobach

It will be interesting to see if slashing exploration investment reduces the supply side resilience though demand is well off historic levels and Covid depending may remain so for some time. I can see it’s tempting for UAE wanting to earn money at current prices but they must realise oversupply is a short term problem and a bit of patience will reward them better in the long run when demand has recovered. I’ve continued to build my stake in RDSB with a core holding averaging 1300 and a trading position around 1400 looking to sell at 1500 and buy on any dips but 29th July statement might reduce volatility and set a new range so it’s probably a one off punt albeit with more shares and a higher dividend it could be a nice earner

A difficult decision having waited a long time for news but weighing up uncertainty over whether FCA might increase redress and / or the dilution that a share issue if successfully negotiated could cause I’ve relinquished my modest 10,000 shareholding at 4.3019 but will continue to follow this share as I know a lot of you are in big time and though it would mean my decision was erroneous I’d be delighted to see you do well and make serious money on a bounce. I’m deep in RDSB so hope that my modest hit on sale of NSF will be well covered soon! DYOR and GLA

Sorry “buy lists” spell check

The Lex article on the back page is particularly informative

Operating cash flow has been boosted $20 billion by the recovery in OP which was unforeseen when the dividend was cut last year albeit Shell could’ve maintained dividend and still covered its payout with hindsight

The new dividend policies could add $2 billion a quarter to payout

A significant metric on 29th July will be how near RDS got to the “retired” $65 billion debt target as this will make the decision to advance payout perceived as prudent as well as pragmatic since the shares have been left off but lists since the dividend cut and subsequent frugal uplifts

Boyobach

It will be interesting to see if this resets the relationship between RDSB SP and OP more towards your original formula which might suggest yield gap between RDS and other oil majors was the issue of concern

TheFD
Assuming half money goes to dividend and 25% of CFFO is deployed that’s $7.5 billion with roughly that number of shares in issue or say 25c a quarter v current 17c or so giving a yield of 5% around current level with buy backs raising the dividend by reducing the denominator over time
The business still has challenges to fund transition but if dividends went back to 25c ballpark ultimately heading back toward 36c of old Id imagine the implied yield would send the shares back up to £18 st least in next 12m but DYOR and GLA

Gavster-NBC

Yes Jessica Uhl confirmed the $6.4b per annum increase in cashflow per $10 per barrel rise in OP in her Q1 presentation so the maths is easy based on averages over respective quarters - should be a corker

Share a real traders dream past 24 hours hitting 1475 then 1421 now 1454 but I’m holding not second guessing move

Gavster-NBC

I’m with you as don’t believe £22 unless massive cash generation feeds through to raised dividend or buy backs

Q2 results on 29th July will be pivotal and should be start of a journey though despite OP surge I can’t see debt target being reached in single quarter it’ll be close enough to make prediction on Q3 and RDS might signal intent about preference between raising divi or starting BB

Sudden drop of 1.75% in past few hours - not seen why as all recent hews said price going up due to lack of wading on production cuts

SP now turned negative having been up most of day

Neversellshell22

Thanks appreciate your analysis and informative posts

I’m now more invested in RDSB than I ever thought I’d be so am quite keen to see the price kick off from here