Member Info for Barrieprov

Boyobach it’s early days but SP response to OP of $68 not
that bad so far today but it’s significant that oil has
crashed through $70 level which I hadn’t expected albeit
RDS will have had a good start to Q3 off back of average
OP so far
have

€70.30 currently- yes be interesting to watch relationship

Boyobach
OP recovered a bit too - falling price meeting rising demand so hopefully it’ll support SP at raised floor
Roll on ex divi date and share buy backs represent good value at this level IMHO hope for a good end to the week!

Investornoob21

Dividend yield is one valuation calculation basis so if RDSB stopped paying dividends the SP would fall significantly as even II invest for income as well as capital gain.

The advantage of share buyback as you know is that it reduces the overall payout at a given dividend level by reducing tge number of shares left to pay it and also gives each one of us a slightly bigger slice of a smaller cake so the opposite of dilution.

It also increases return on capital employed at a given level of profit which is a key performance measure that RDS will be judged against its peers and again may make it a relatively attractive investment.

The SP is also influenced by the OP as the company trades in that commodity but again that’s just a facet.

You are of course right to point out that determination of value depends on much more than dividend payment and share buybacks which are only made possible by cash generated by the business which for RDS is a known strength.

Above all the faith the market and shareholder collective have in the business management and their strategy for the future that ensures continuity of profits and cash flows are sustainable over the longer term is what underpins valuation.

My average isn’t much below yours at c £13.25 and I’m overweight in terms of where I’d expected to be but have decided to hold on for another year to see how the business performs under the stewardship of its management team and see how far the SP goes.

Good luck to you and all of us on here!

The SP is holding up despite the slide in OP but it’ll be interesting to see where it goes from here

Hope those analysts who predicted OP might go back up to $80 are right and we might see £16 over Summer

Meanwhile I remain overweight in this state and look forward to a nice dollop of dividend

A £3 handle on share price is a pretty good milestone

Interesting BP results ahead of forecast so dividend upped and share buybacks

It remains to be seen if that attracts more institutional cash and RDS languishes

So many more factors than OP to consider when forecasting the SP

Boyobach
Thanks for your informative posts as always
I’m pleased with the increased dividend as have built a nice position and am coming to terms with the price not moving up quite as quickly or substantially - will hold for longer term and certainly sell none of my holding under £18 given the wait

Just goes to show how weak the correlation between OP and SP has become - I’ve concluded it’s best to focus on the longer term trends - hopefully RDSB will vindicate my patience in holding for Q2 results which were as good as I could’ve expected. There’s more to SP than yield obviously but the company generating huge amounts of cash while the OP sits up at these levels should either underpin further dividend growth and / or larger levels of share buybacks

grippa

The company has authority under Companyues Act to buy that many but the current $2b program which ends on 31 Dec 2021 would fund by my estimate up to 100m shares so the sanction will take some time to work though

Neversellshell22

I saw that too abs assume the company will adopt a softly softly approach ramp ling up its program given the total spend by the calendar year end will (depending on price) see up to 100 million shares bought.
There’s 150 days to go so that’s over half a million daily average purchases allowing for modest price appreciation.

Looking at daily volumes if the company tries to appropriate too many shares it’ll cause price instability and cost them more reducing the number cancelled. An interesting balancing act!

Boyobach

Yes testing 1450 again as I speak

Sorry 38%

Dadean

Think previous divi 16.65 and 17.35 so increase from latest is indeed 37%

Hi Optimus
Based on the latest exchange rate that’s close
It’s 68.75p per annum which at current price (1440) is 4.75% yield which isn’t bad but at the conservative end of expectations for some until the effect of the buyback is taken into account as with fewer shares presumably the option of increasing dividend per share is available at same overall cost

I should’ve kept my earlier post in which I estimated a divi of 25c because it equated to an even $1 pa and also that old jet debt target of $65b would be close to being achieved
A $5,6b reduction isn’t bad
The buyback of $2b will support share price in longer term
Hold for the ride but if OP stays at current level this share looks undervalued currently IMHO DYOR and above all GLA

GLA

A lot riding in this for many on this BB

Been a long wait - hope patience rewarded

Just seen US oil inventories dropped more than anticipated

U.K. economy has been buck frexited by leave vote and major components including RDS underperforming so no surprise
Hopefully our little share will pick up after Q2 announcement

Latter / previous period I mean - sorry tge typo significantly altered the meaning

Megla
I assume the adverse working capital movement is due to higher receivables as the underlying commodity price increases but the uplift in prices on average will not be as great in the later period - as you say going to be a big number for debt reduction and I’m going to guess that’ll risen from $4.1b to c $6b in the quarter so almost to the previous debt reduction target of $65b
Share buybacks must be attractive at these levels and would quickly stabilise the price but as investors I’m sure we’d welcome a reset in the yield to at least 5.5% say in the region of a 25c a quarter dividend