Member Info for Bantham

Those who believe in this now have an opportunity to pile in at a price level they can never have imagined.

The question is, is this now at a level to see strong buying and a big bounce in the share price ?

I still prefer to sit this out on the sidelines.

I would guess the people selling at 20p this morning wish they had sold 15% higher at 23p last week.

It seems however low the price goes there is still a lower low.

Very good news required to reverse this. I realise that’s possible. But risk to me remains of continuing weakness.

IMO DYOR

Bolo - if they don’t release news which shows material sales the share price will remain weak - and IMO - continue to go down.

And my maths show the upside case that 40% of the company goes to new equity. The downside case is a lot more dilution than that. Or they can’t raise the equity.

All holders are therefore relying on material good news - ie real revenues - to reverse the vicious circle. Of course that is possible but it runs against the clear message in the Jan RNS and seems an extremely risky position to take versus cutting some losses / sitting on the sidelines. That’s been my position for some months.

I posted some time ago the risks to existing holders of dilution given the equity required against the declining market cap.

Now the price has further collapsed the position is even more risky.

Market cap now £55m. Let’s say it needs £20m and to avoid an even more serious run that needs to happen by Q4 2023 at the latest.

How big a discount needed to raise >33% of the market cap? I think at least 50%.

That means new equity would own >40% of the company once financed.

That’s ugly.

And it’s a vicious circle - not helped by the foolish Board decision on pricing the options.

My position remains to stay on the sidelines until capital is raised ( assuming that it can be raised ). The risk of that is that sudden good news is announced and you miss the bounce. But I think the risk of missing out is much less than getting wiped out by the dilution.

IMO DYOR

How true Geeman. Not a well timed post from me ??

Well I guess the people who sold at 23p yesterday wanted to avoid selling at 22p today.

And the people selling today at 22p today want to avoid selling at 21p tomorrow.

Etc etc

I assume that given the options announcement Angle has no price sensitive information in the pipe. That means no new contracts on the horizon.

In which case I think this record might not hold for long.

Going large I had a few spare minutes and re-read your posts over the last few months.

You have been remarkably accurate on Angle.

This is poor - to put it mildly. It’s actually worse than it looks at first glance given the implications.

First - they have chosen to do this at the historic low. Second, the vesting hurdles are weak. Finally, the CEO and FD take 40% between them - are they 40% of the value of the people in the company?

So if i have read correctly if the share price recovers to 51.5p within THREE YEARS ( 2.2 times 25.75p) they get 100% vesting.

That is a pathetic target given the historic price and capital raise.

It also raises real questions about the Directors’ confidence in the long term value of this company. If they believed, 100% vesting would be at a much higher price.

In figures, if the share price hits 51.5p in three years AN gets £900,000 and the FD a bit less. As these hurdles are meant to be tough, they are sending the market a clear message about the difficulty in raising the share price. And then of course - there is a capital raise to come - i expect they have factored that into these numbers.

IMO - final nail in the coffin for this company. Uninvestable.

Agreed - it is a negative take. You may be right. And it’s turned blue to.

Well that explains what held the share price up. And it’s good to have a shareholder with belief. However, unless they keep buying it’s not encouraging for the price outlook - without them buying where would the share price have gone to in the last couple of weeks?

Please could you clarify what you mean? Who is manipulating it / why/ and how?

Thanks.

You buy at the current price because you have faith that this team will start to perform soon - and that means they are going to generate meaningful sales. And so you believe the inevitable equity issue will be priced off a price 50 to 100% up from here.

You stay on the sidelines if you think the Jan RNS is telling you that good news may be some time away and difficult to predict + the inevitable equity issue will be priced off something near to the current price. Or you worry that if they don’t get their act together fast their won’t be an equity story which is good enough to issue sufficient equity.

It will be interesting.

They set out their stall with the last RNS and it didn’t look very attractive.

Another month closer to having to raise equity…..

I was thinking it might just drift around 30p but maybe that’s optimistic.

Without an nice rabbit - which they’ve told us not to expect - this looks high risk to me.

I am just going to watch at sidelines until we get some clarity…

IMO / DYOR etc etc

This has settled around 30p and no reason for it to move much from there until material news ( positive or negative ) - given everything that could be said was said in the RNS. The smart ( lucky? ) money bought at 25p and sold at 34p. Great trade if you had the b$lls.

Yes - i know and that’s what informs the maths. Look you can play around by a few months on when the capital is required. But they have been burning £20m pa against the £32m of cash. So let’s assume they can cut that right back ( BTW does that align with their growth strategy?). Maybe they get into 1Q 2024 before they have to raise. But they are telling you they will run out of money sometime in H2 2024 and i don’t think even AN is so stupid as to wait after his cash working capital is below, say £10m ( or six months burn ).

Let’s say Angle needs to raise £20m by the end of the year to avoid serious concerns on its financing position ( I am assuming it carries on with a net annual cash burn between £15m and £20m ).

Now let’s assume - in line with last weeks RNS - that there’s not a lot of good news on sales coming out of Angle for a while. So the share price stays at 25p. In that case Angle needs to raise 30 per cent of its market cap. That’s a lot. Let’s assume that gets raised at a 50% discount - ie 12.5p. That would mean that existing shareholders are diluted to the extent of only owing half the company. And the share price probably drops to around the equity issue price to reflect that.

So you can play around with the assumptions and come up with different maths. But the point is that unless Angle make some really serious progress in sales in the next 9 months there is enormous risk to the share price even at 25p. My reading of the RNS suggest that’s not likely. Of course, if they do achieve real sales in that time period the maths changes and existing shareholders make money from today’s price. Anyway, that’s why I am staying on the sidelines until I see how they are going to get longer term finance.

DYOR etc etc

MJ I must admit to knowing very little about the tech. When I bought in the Summer I was assuming that it was exactly as set out by the CEO ie revolutionary, proven and massively beneficial. But I guess in a nutshell the more I listened to the CEO the more I began to worry that he was an enormous b;:lsh@tter on a massive ego trip. That’s why I sold and that’s why I am very cautious.

Look I think everyone agrees they are going to have to raise a lot of money. That’s the key thing here. Holding out for a hugely uplifting announcement in the next 3 to 6 months after yesterday’s underwhelming RNS on the status of discussions isn’t really tenable is it? So that means raising money at a big discount to where we are today IMO. And that’s value destructive to the existing shareholders.

Rah - again I agree FDA was a serious achievement.

The problem was the arrogant hype around it which made the CEO look arrogant, ridiculous and unbelievable. It’s the same thing with the ‘ 100 billion dollar’ silliness when he’s made £1m in revenue.

So the danger is this guy has way overplayed his hand, is spending cash like there’s no tomorrow and when he needs a lot more money in 12 months there are no serious players that believe him. And that’s the risk here. Some will think - no problem it will all come right. I think - with this fellow seeing is believing.

Dear RAH - that’s my point - they only raise £20m at 80p six months ago on the back of the `FDA hype. Unless AN starts some serious delivery they will need to raise a similar amount when the share price has cratered. That seems like a big risk to me - hence the concern it could be unfundable.

But I agree this won’t be clear until the back end of the year when we will all see whether it was great to invest today or a disaster.