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Any of you experts taken a look at SoftBank financing concerns recently? A quick look at the FT might be enlightening.

In any event, they clearly got the whole thing horribly wrong when they bought the THG shares and entered into the option.

I am a holder - now averaging 96p. I want this to go up. But i don't understand all the ignorant wishful thinking. On that topic any of you still thinking a bid is just round the corner? They are certainly taking their time finalising that aren’t they! :)

Anyone placing any value on those analyst prices, or thinking there’s the remotest chance SoftBank will exercise the option or hoping for a bid to bail them out needs to think again…….. The key issue here is whether THG is performing or not in this difficult environment . And no-one knows that yet.

Yes - good points - thanks.

I just read through Musclehead’s posts on THG.

If you are thinking about investing and wondering about how much you actually understand about this company that’s not a bad way to test yourself.

I invested over the last couple of weeks ( av. 101p) but his questions are a good reminder of why the share price isn’t leaping up.

All you people pinning your hopes on PE ( which in my view is fool’s gold ) and getting disappointed almost every day could do worse than taking a look.

And then it would be very interesting to see one of you get to grips with the substance of his points ( ie play the ball, not the man ). Anyone want to take that up?

Thank goodness you’re here musclehead . I thought the lunatics had taken over the asylum.

Sorry - in that case i stand corrected. But i don’t think it changes the thrust of my point.

Oxford - if there is any doubt - this is definitely not financial advice . I am just sharing how i am thinking about things. And i suggest you and hereshopin ignore all my musings.

Yep - that’s right 1pencil.

Hereshopin just loves the crude abuse. So odd.

Yes hereshopin - i know they were a long term investor way before the IPO.

Yet again you get the wrong end of the stick. The fact they were a long term investor and then sell out in this way is even more significant than if they had popped in and out: it means they had a very serious reverse of opinion having had a fantastic relationship previously with MM. Thats one of the issues that spooked the market so much. I am surprised that even you didn’t realise that.

Here’s a reasoned opinion on trading THG. Hereshopin will shoot we down with a torrent of abuse - but that’s no bad thing. My trading decisions mean i am up on THG ( i disclosed both my trades on this site ) and i doubt he is.

So - first. Forget Beta man and all his rumours. Why? Because none of the institutions are interested. There is zero bid premium in the share price today because the real market has zero expectation of a bid. On the Chairman - I wouldn’t be surprised if they announce a Chairman soon - they have been looking for a while. That is no great insight.

So - what i think is important is perceptions of risk and invest ability.

We have had a long period where confidence has been shot. It’s rare to see a major shareholder like Blackrock exit its entire shareholding in a short period of time so far below the IPO price. That was a massive sell signal to anyone paying attention. And then the market focuses on all the different risks and thats a great environment for shorts.

So if these risks start to be addressed the stock becomes investable on the basis of judgement rather than hope.

So what’s changed ?

1. The last RNS which stated THG was not aware of any reason for the share price fall. Hugely important
2. Moody’s - specifically the comments on liquidity: i can’t overstate the importance of that

Now - if and when they appoint a decent Chairman ( and i agree that shouldn’t be too far off ) that deals with further risk: which decent Chairman comes into a situation like this without serious diligence? People like that care about their reputations. On the flip side ( as Beta guy has realised ) these kinds of people don’t bother getting involved when bids are cooking - but i hope everyone here has realised by now, that isn’t happening - and IMO - we do NOT need bid spec to drive this share price upwards.

Wondering about buying more today but i went quite long across the board yesterday am.

Thanks Hosai.

The point Moody’s makes on liquidity is the key one for me. Questions of liquidity risk have been around this for a while - and that’s a pretty damn serious kind of risk.

But Moody’s states: ‘2) its excellent liquidity, with cash balances continuing to exceed funded term debt; ‘

If it has excellent liquidity, then liquidity isn’t a risk! And its not really a question of opinion, its a point being made by Moody’s.

That could be quite helpful to how THG trades in the coming days…….

1 Pencil - for total balance you can add the second section:

‘However, CFR also reflects (1) the company's still relatively modest size; (2) the negative impact of high delivery costs on profitability and credit metrics in 2020 and 2021 (3) a leveraged capital structure and relatively high capital spending limiting free cash flow and interest coverage.’

To my reading that is - overall - extremely positive.

What’s more - it’s another risk effectively being dealt with. (And it’s analysis from an independent third party expert - who has had access to the numbers and so is well informed. ( Those who asked for action from the BOD - here you can see it. )

And every risk which is dealt with reduces selling pressure and makes this more investable to new investors.

Pretty good.

Pokerchips - i completely agree. This isn’t the moment to go all in. Trades which look good one day can go to s$$t the next…….

Pokerchips - i had to read that twice! What a great trade that would have been.

You have to keep a broad view - not get lost in the detail :)

I have been buying across the market today - things like Persimmon ( 10 per cent yield ) and Scottish Mortgage. Been in cash so i take the view if today’s not a decent day for some investment ( when a lot of risks are crystallising ) then when is it…….

Hi Hereshopin - you were right again. Can’t resist another post.

Bought another 17,000 at 91p.

Why? Because so much risk is priced into this now. And the RNS has shown the company has no material negative knowledge. So risk / reward looks good to me.

Whats your trading strategy?

Hereshopin - i started posting on this site out of idle interest / a bit of fun and i thought I could save some people making some losses given the specifics of the situation.

You and your pals were derogatory. But your stupidity only hurt yourself. You are down another 35% from there. That’s a lot to lose when with a little understanding it was perfectly avoidable.

But you were right in one regard - i was wasting my time and should have shut up.

Most of the LTH’s on this chat are sailing in a ship of fools of which you are the angry and emotional captain. Carry on making basic errors due to your rare combination of stupidity, ignorance and arrogance .

Goodbye.

Ok Pokerchips - any situation I’ve seen where there’s a bid rumour and its believed drives the share price up. Yes - hedge funds invest into those situations.

I am bored of this now.

Believe what you like. It’s a free country. I am switching off.

Poker chips - interesting post.

I agree - excellent question. How come Beta guy got the rumour? And how come it arose when it did? Where the hell is Kleinman in all of this? He is the man who nearly always breaks the big stories. How come Beta guy has eaten his lunch? How come Kleinman hasn’t cooked the rumour and served up something fully baked? And yet - correct me if i am wrong - he has not said anything about it.

So back to the initial question. One theory would be as follows: The share price is dropping and dropping. One way to at least hold it is to put out a bid rumour. And there can be a tiny element of truth to it - which is that PE want to have a look at Beauty or whatever - i mean PE always want to chat about a potential opportunity don’t they. But its a long way from that to thinking about a public offer. Anyway, the simple fact of a bid rumour is going to make the shorts think hard about the risk of a bid - if not now then at some stage in the future. Not a bad idea. So how do you get it out? Well Kleinman wouldn’t buy it - because he ONLY writes up fully cooked rumours which he has checked out properly with various sources and he KNOWS to be true. So you need to find someone else. Well - how about Beta guy - he’s happy to put out UNCOOKED rumours on the basis they MIGHT be true. So he’s just the ticket isn’t he.

Could that be a possibility do you think?

Ok - fine Hosai. You go with the Betaville guy. I can see i am not going to persuade you!

But i keep asking the question - if Beta guy is so well informed - where are the M and A Arbitrage funds ? Why is the price at 101p? Out there in the market it doesn't matter for a moment what i think. What matters is what the Institutions think. And they don’t think there’s anything in it - AT THE MOMENT. Things can change obviously. So it sort of boils down to common sense in the end…….

Hereshopin - you sit there interpreting any piece of news - negative or positive - as a buy signal. And you just won’t listen to anything that would make you question your understanding. That’s a pretty poor way to invest. And it’s no way to learn. It’s why you are down so far on THG. Once again expected some kind of share price uplift on Monday due to Betaville. Once again you were completely wrong. That’s twice in short succession you have totally misunderstood the same situation. And no doubt you will do exactly the same thing when Betaville comes out with his next insight on Friday.

I am investing on the back of a specific announcement which i think i am qualified to understand.

The share price may go up or it may go down but at least i have a solid basis for my decisions - maybe my judgement will be wrong but, if so, won’t have to blame myself for just taking a silly gamble based on the hope of a return. You, however, do not have that luxury.

Amazed how you can be so rude and aggressive to people. Maybe it helps you deal with some of the poor decisions you have made.

There’s nothing strange about it at all Hosai. The Beta guy has got an over-developed impression of his own importance. No-one serious out there is remotely interested in what him and his uncooked rumours. It’s only PI’s who are listening in and getting their hopes up.

Can’t you see that if any serious market player believed there was a decent chance of this being true they think would have bought in size and the share price wouldn’t be where it is today. It’s just basic common sense.

If i am wrong - that’s great because i now have 25,000 shares. Unfortunately i am not wrong.