Member Info for Bantham

Unhooked - the way this would work is MM does a joint bid with PE. So his shares are bought out like everyone else’s but he has equity in the bidding vehicle. It’s been done many times before. Very simple.

So he faces an interesting equation - the higher the price the better in terms of the value for his plc shares but the lower his percentage in the bidding vehicle although this would all get finessed along the way. He would not have a vote on the Board in terms of whether to recommend such an Offer nor, for that matter, whether to engage with the bidding vehicle in the first place. That would be done by the Independent directors. So there’s an element of tension there.

No doubt Oxford Bull and hereshopin will tell you i dont know what i am talking about but that’s how it would be.

There are more sensible things for all of us to be doing but watching this share price is too hypnotic.

You wonder whether the time has arrived to buy back in - but then you look at the share price since IPO and realise that to date there has never been a good time to buy in.

Plus - personally i don’t like the Ukraine risk / reward. Whilst the bulls on this site seem to think they can read Putin’s mind and it will all be ok, they tend to be the same people who think ‘ hold at all costs’ is the only professional strategy and PE is on the verge of making a bid.

Post a good update, i have to agree there would be real upside. On the other side of the coin, what happens if an update isnt so good…..?

And there’s the problem - you aren’t going to get fresh investors into this ATM.

Unhooked - It’s what happens when you are too emotionally invested which often goes hand in hand with being too economically invested.

Wishful thinking becomes the only determinant of what investment action you take.

I’ve been there before. I expect we all have.

So i have great sympathy for that way of thinking. But maybe in that situation it shouldn’t be about selling out entirely versus staying in / topping up ( and topping up seems mad to me )? Maybe just taking a bit of risk off the table - even if it means crystallising a loss isn’t a stupid thing to do when you are a long way down. I think that was an obvious thing to do when the share price was at 135p on the back of a nonsense rumour - the problem is that all these people didn’t see that as an opportunity to reduce risk at a better price. They ignored the facts and saw it as the launch pad for further enormous share price rises. And they think of themselves as experienced professionals. Is taking a bit of risk off the table now when you are 20% down from that rumour inflated price? That’s a more tricky one to answer.

I realise these are tough days but as a little light relief i thought this comment was quite funny. One to re-use:

‘Forget the news that this stock is sinking faster than the Titanic, at least that had a excuse.’

Well if i know so little and you know so much, you might look back to what i said last time and compare it with what happened. And when you do that have a look at what some of these other people were saying.

Having done that you can then see what happens this week.

And then you can calculate profit and losses based on the different understandings we have of this situation.

Hereshopin - you seem to have a speciality in being horribly derogatory about people with opinions you don’t like. So here’s another forecast - you will continue to lose money from this situation because of their own stubborn stupidity.

Rock and Hosai - you seem like posters who actually think about the situation. And there’s plenty of what you say that isn’t out of line with what i am thinking. It’s a debate worth having.

But one thing where you aren’t correct is what determines whether or not an RNS has to be made in response to a leak. The Rule applies to situations where there is rumour and speculation and a material share price movement. That is exactly what we had a couple of weeks ago. The Rule also requires any named party in such circumstances ( eg Leonard Green or Advent ) to contact the Panel and - if they wish to continue considering an approach - make their own RNS. So it is unarguable that no RNS on the Monday morning = no continuing discussions ( whether or not there had been any in the first place ).

And, by the way, there is no scope for ‘ downing tools’ one weekend only to pick them up again a couple of weeks later.

I have no doubt THG is planning for a Defense. And a falling share price makes an approach more likely at some stage. And i think that should put a floor on the share price - unless there is some particularly bad news. My point is simply that there are some people here encouraging the belief that something could imminently happen to drive up the share price. And the facts simply don’t support that hype.

Hosai- my mistake on that para being removed. I misunderstood Rock8.

As for the rest - there is nothing new in any of this. Having your corporate brokers advising on defense is just obvious, basic, normal housekeeping.

I don’t understand why some of you don’t understand that when there is a substantive leak of Takeover discussions this is what happens: the company concerned or the potential Offeror have to call the Takeover Panel. And then either the potential Offeror totally ceases working on the takeover or the Panel require an immediate announcement.

So if there’s no RNS it means no ongoing discussions. The fact that THG plans for Defense with its Corporate Brokers means nothing at all - its just good housekeeping.

Finally - the fact that M and A arb hedge funds don’t buy in and push the price to a proper premium tells you everything you need to know.

I assumed it was negative as i took the summary provided by Hereshopin: ‘ Yes, mainly about Dermologica, owned by Unilever, being unhappy about their products being discounted on THG and similar sites when they want a higher price to be charged to protect the brand.’ That seemed negative to me. But Hereshopin does seem to misinterpret things like this - so maybe it was a positive article.

Hereshopin - there’s ignorance and then there’s wilful ignorance.

You have managed to translate a negative article on THG into something which confirms bid speculation. Of course it does nothing of the sort. All it says is that after such a precipitous share price fall THG has put in place some defense planning with it’s Corporate brokers as would any company in that situation. That’s just normal behaviour. And it seems even that paragraph has been dropped from the article if i have understood Rock8 correctly.

There is nothing to see here. Nothing of substance has been confirmed. The Sundays have not picked up Friday’s rumour because there was nothing in it. There will be no takeover / leak response RNS tomorrow. I have no idea where the share price will go, but one thing’s for sure - this bit of tittle tattle will have zero impact.

It is a re-hash. The banks like Jeffries have always advised THG as a public company. McKinsey is just a consultant not a bank advisor of the type required for a Public Offer.

But if you want to believe it, whatever…….

Well i had it right last time. Because i know the Rules and being rude to me doesn’t change that. If you had listened - or read the Rules that i posted for you to read, you could have top sliced and been in a happier position today.

Anyway, this time the rumour is just a very weak re-hash of the old one.

If the Sunday papers pick it up. - well then i will have got this wrong.

There seem to be a lot of people here wanting to believe stuff like this. And i think it’s a shame to spend another 48 hours expecting something that in my view just won’t happen.

And i was invested and sold for a loss of a few thousand pounds. . And i may well invest again. As i think it’s got some really interesting and potentially valuable elements.

You have seen how this this played out before. This time i would expect zero reaction over the weekend from Sunday Times et al.

I would read Betaville’s definitions for his stories before expecting anything at all from this. UNCOOKED means he just heard a rumour and has done nothing to verify it. It basically means nothing at all……..

Anyone who understood the Takeover Code knew at 7am that Monday morning that either 1. The rumours were ill-founded or 2. If they weren’t that they had been leaked too early and had ceased. That’s why no hedge funds moved in. That’s why the price gradually fell away. The market reaction reflected the facts.

A lot of people on this site simply do not understand the regulations.

If you were a LTH - the smart trade would have been to top - slice on the bid rumour and buy back now. And this isn’t being smart after the event.

I think the attitude of holding on through thick and thin, only looking at the upside and ignoring facts or news you don’t like isn’t a great way to preserve your investment, let alone make money.

The point is that believing in the company long term doesn’t mean you should hold all your shares and buy more as the share price drops. There are smarter strategies to consider.

Dear all - nothing at all out there suggests a bid let alone a bidding war.

Do you not realise there are hedge funds out there much bigger than you and much better informed than you. If they thought there was a bid arbitrage in prospect what do you think they would do and where would the share price be today?

It’s good to look at the positives. For instance, I think ingenuity is very good. But deluding yourselves on bids is not going to help you make good investment decisions.

11. ( or maybe 12) ‘ anyone who questions my upbeat narrative is clearly paid by short-sellers and / or is a horrible person, so i can safely ignore the substance of their points’

Agreed - that is also quite funny. But not as funny as number 11 ( in future to be known as number 10 )

I was only amusing myself with these - but the problem is thinking like this seems to affect people’s investment decisions. And i am not sure thats a good thing.

Maybe - but you must admit number 11 is quite funny.

Thanks unhooked. Good additions. Especially 11 ??

5. ‘The share price is only down due to shorts and they will soon get burned. BOOM’

6. ‘ We can ignore Blackrock selling down - in fact it creates a great opportunity to buy at a discounted price ‘ [ I must admit to being guilty of falling for that one myself for a while ]

7. ‘ I love it when the share price falls because it gives me a great opportunity to buy more at a discount’ [ And i am not immune from that one either]

1. ‘MM is a great guy and won’t let us down.’

2. ‘ Putin will not invade’.

3. ‘ All the evidence points to a bid. BOOM.’

4. ‘ We can ignore broader market rotations from tech as interest rates rise.’