Member Info for Banburyboy

Dofus - guys on here posted a picture of new river cruiser spirit of danube I know you think river cruises are coming up on the side !!! How much does one cost ? Whats the capacity ? Just want to do the maths based on cruise metrics.

Also two ships one cost £245m and the second £295m both i beleive have 999 bearths whats the difference ? Why cost diffetence
Lots of nhs chat on here i hold two ned posts at the nhs - i come on here for an escape :)

Longterm could not agree more.
RH that was a pretty offensive post. I have freinds who have died who are fit and well Horse posts on here and was incredibly poorly. Investor sums it up.
Good if you stuck to your history list or joke board

Should read Funding conerns 2021.
Having a year end so early in the year confuses !

Hi Bat - TU has said they will declare a profit. They would not say that unless there was absolutely no doubt.
Interims where we had two months of sailing were £16m but that included £49m of travel income for a single ship.
Im expecting £15 m - £20m for the year.
Cash burn is key and we know across the group it was £9m five months to 31st Dec. Final month will be interesting. But if thats ok no funding concerns in 2022
Finals will also reveal :
1 what 5bp means in £ as a covid claims dividend. No one has a feel on the board on loss ratios
2 the valuation of the three properties up for sale as they need reclasifying to "assets held for resale". As far as i can see they are paid for and the book value is circa £5m. So could be usefull. A builder on her was talking £30m for just one. Im not holding my breath.
You would not beleive how relaxing it is typing on Saga as working through an absolutely evil accounting officer assessment its a public sector thing to support items that are arguably novel and contenious. Id take a job looking at Sagas account over that anyday !

Millionaire - insurance definately stabalsed at £120m per year PBT. Cash outflow £9m in five months. Goodwill write downs unlikely. One off £ boost from land sales and 5 basis point off loss ratio from covid lower claims discount. Agree we will be kicking ourselves.

S&S - doesnt sound like you will be on the data base. The jewel in the saga crown that Dofus ( aka RdH) beleives is worth millions. 600k of names who like three years but no S&S !!

Slowandsteady
The beauty of 500k of three year insurance policies sold and 80% customer retention is the customers love the product. I think it genius and has stabalised insurance which has been in decline.
The savy like you and i are in the minority. The majority love certainty of future premiums even if its more expensive. Crazy but true.
Looking ahead to the first renewal of a three year in eighteen months - customer has no claims same price sir !! Its genius and they have cornered the market.
Anyone remember Tiswas ? Great progamme catch phrase " This is What they want " Saga have nailed it.
From an accounting perspective three year fixes under ifrs requires some deferal of income recognition in the accounts. Its the laymans equivelent of money in the bank.
Lance was a duff CEO but he did well with this.

NdH just chill.
Molehills only become moutains if you make them.
RH aka Henry Kissinger was trying to lighten the mood with his joke thread. I tried it. Go for it it might work and we can all get on.

Thanks Gooner the 2013 sale is therefore an accounting exercise. If Pmh is right on the value could be a £20m windfall plus annual savings from rates and maintenance. As i said it will need reclasifying as asset held for resale in the accouts so should reveal more. Also might get some indication of value of those other two properties you tipped us of on.

A young girl pops into the supermarket and sees the guy who had his wicked way with her the night before in there stacking washing powder .

"You lieing b***** last night in the club you told me you were a stunt pilot.

" No i told you i was a member of the Ariel display team"

Boom boom

I think the sheer pace of vacinations and general upbeat mood will push it higher. If general market is not down more than 0.3% i see this going over £3 and closing at £3.05. Absolute guess work but just a feeling around momentum.

Not bad RH.
Jo soaps just before was good though . Superb framing of the moment.

RH - i take your point to a degree.
But
1. NdN has allready had a go at FJ. Now he picks on me. Given his newness good manners would suggest he blends in gracefully. I thought he would after the gooner stuff clealy not!
2. Method in my posting. It was to Dofus Winchmore on RDH so why create a second calling Dofus thread ! Ndn cant see beyond what he brings and doesnt recognise others contribution and we have been here a while.
3. Thanks for your nice words on my postings. Yes of course on tax. Im in the public sector so no expert !
4. NdN. Once ok but twice sorry it Orwellian !! I will reasonably try to posts on threads but my advice RH is dont make a big deal of it as you will break a good board.
Much more ndn noise and i will retire from posting ;)

PMH good post.
There is an accounting requirment to dislose assets for sale at valuation in statutory accounts so we should find out more.
Im mad keen on Saga but balanced and my reservations are :
Refit how confident are you ? I would have doubled it but im not in construction
Saga brought the building in Jan 2013 for £3.479m and moved in March 2013 to its Gibralter subsidury Acromas. For the building to be worth £50m now that transaction must have not been at arms length. Anyone know how long Saga have occupied the building ? If its 30 years + the last sale will be for accouting / tax purposes and can be ignored.

Marcus - i have RH in the "hasty" box and a very firm view more black and white than grey. To give some more considered context :
Like you i think private really unlikely. And as Rogue says why big up the trading update.

If he does go private they will engineer a debt for equity arrangment through RDH. The obvious catayst for the plan would be the £45m of ship repayments next year. Thats why i would be pleased if they were deffered.
One of the most knowledgable posters on here is a guy called Dofus. He was a senior exective in the company and he seems to be suggesting taking it private could be the plan. Anyone but dofus and i would have dismissed it but hes pretty well informed. Hope he is wrong.

RH -- we havnt got £140 cash !!! Burn has been £9m since 1st August so equity we have £131m (debt /cash). But arguabily better insurance and cruise fundimentals.
You do seem very quick on the key board. One of my favorate analagies. The early bird got the worm but the second mouse got the cheese !! Enjoy the worm and lets hope Saga delivers that cheese to both of us.

Rouge - good point on TU. I concur any skulldugery would probably be coupled with downplaying prospects which they did not. Hope Dofus is wrong ! Hoping RdH is happy with trebling his £100m and at the same time being the saviour oh his beloved folkstone and we all profit from his endevours.
Great win against Derby. Theres only 7 points between Luton in 13th and second bottom - relegation will be a real dog fight !!

Horse - read your post and really glad you are on the mend and back. It touches us all i have three sisters and a ninty year old mum in Banbury (im in Northumberland). They their hubbies neices for 40 years had a stylist called Bernard come to one of the houses and spent a day cutting hair. Huge family event wine nibbles and Bernarrd was the family. 61 and he died drom covid on 20th jan after being in the john radcliff for three weeks. My mum is devistated as you say horrible. Spookily others may recollect but i put out a post saying wheres horse ? All to do with an update on your reseach on bookings. You will know they need 85% occuoancy and £235 per ticket to make £40m pbit&d per ship. You know the sesatities 1% on capacity +/- £1m. £1 on price +/- 300k. I did some maths based on TU occuoncy and advance bookings and came up with £300 per ticket. Your more detailed work showed similer and i wondered if you had updated ? No rush and no real need and grear to see you back

RH like for like would be £3.85 as the company has £140m cash. You and i are on that gerbel wheel again deja vus
Looks like i will have to wait for a philisophical debate on RDH and going private no one has shown any interest !

Also Marcas read across is not 33p to £4.95. As Injection of £140m makes them not comparable.

33p valued then company at £400m add £140m cash makes comparable mv £540m divided by 140m shares = £3.85

No one saw the terms. It was leaked to the papers. Many were quite mad that the board dissmissed it out of hand and did not disclose - they i think described it as highly conditional. By then they had RdHs investment lined up and that became their reccomended route