Member Info for Banburyboy

Seagull what did dofus predict right ? Sorry there was a lot of stuff said on staycation and i got a bit lost.
Culco agree on 7th April they will definately update on cruise bookings and cant see anything to dissapoint.

Hi FJ I was wondering if we should all apply for a job at Sentana

Looking back they sold (trigger date)
5th October1.83% at circa 10p
13 November .27% at £185
19th November circa 1% at £2.80
24th November circa 1% at £2.95
1st Feb circa 1% at £2.49
8th Feb circa 1% at £2.89
11th March 1.03% at £3.92

By reckoning they have lost £15m compared to sitting on there hands.
Looks to me like Aberdeen (5.61%) from the RNS did not take up there rights back in October but sat on their hands

Banbury

RH - despite my reckless habits on Saga by profession i'm a Chartered Accountant so very cautious and negative on anything not Saga. Spent 20 minutes looking. Observations are :
- is this a Company very suited to lockdown ? On line sales are doing well but costs are massively reduced due to HMT covid schemes furlough / rate relief etc - so trading updates are not typical, sales driven by bored people and costs covered by HMT. That wont continue.
- No debt but back in July 18 they raised £65m paid off £31m debt and have eaten through the remaining cash very quickly
- Pre covid accounts April 18 and 19 PBT Margins are pretty thin £6.7m on £217m of sales and £4.2m on £192m. Cash flow negative both years. Thin margins mean really sensitive to down turns and changes in sales.
Not one for me and I think all of retail is now a play on "on line" complementing a shop presence . Next is the exemplar as culco says is the Wrks "on line" presence sufficienty distinctive to avoid compeitition from Amazon.
Sorry its a bit negative :)

Sumover - i really hope not and May 24 is long time off so one for May 23 when the share price is £8-10.
As an Ftse 250 company it should not be too dificult rolling over the bond but would be nice to see a strategy of reducing it. So using Titan / building sales to buy back existing bond or set aside for repayment so the May 23 call would be £100 - £150m if we dont roll over bond 1 to 8 or 10 based on higher market cap. Key to this company is short term financing issues are definately behind us.

Acceptor before the pandemic a price of £100 - 150m was quoted for Titan. The accouting goodwill assosiated with Titan was £24m in Jan20 accounts with headroom of £62m at an eyewatering 12.2% discout rate (note 16a - c) General view seems to be value after pandemic is at least what it was before which puts an £86m floor on Titan price.
I would prefer Titan sold and profits from this and buildings but to work on reducing the £250m coparate bond which unlike cruise debt is not asset back and is a worry crystalising in May 24.

Hi Charlie welcome to. This is a good board with quite a few posters (at least 43) the board did an experiment by using the reccomend button and some with detailed company knowledge. Not really expecting news before April 7th so thats a big day.

Looking forward to :
1 Results on 7th April. Insurance stabalised. Covid loss dividend and working from home dividend. Info on sale of Folkstone building and forward cruise bookings.
2. May 21 rejoinn Ftse 250.
3. June update on cruise forward sales
4. June Titan sold for £100m.
30th June close £6.75 and im level on shares
Dreaming on a Saterday whilst watching a dull wba palace !
July Saga party fof all LTHs
Banbury

FJ on here is a great poster measured and balanced. Dont think hes Jeckell and Hyde so agree with Olmney.

Excellent thanks Bat. Fingers crossed for May

Thanks Bat any details on your anlysis such as caps of last new enterants or leaves. I cant seem to find any details when i search ? 429 is great do think ftse is big leg up

Big noise on tullow board re move into ftse250.
From what i can gather was trickered by a company falling out due to takover.
Based on market cap on that day of £750m tullow must be the biggest small cap.
Thats £5.35 for Saga. I think anything above £4.50 gets us in with a shout.
View on tullow was heavy buys last night were trackers. Definately a future step up for saga

Olmney i dont profess to understand british bulls but on saga they are pretty successfull. You can see each recomendation. They said sell last night and first time this morning ive seen any downward pressure both in sells ( far exceeding buys) and sp. Whatever is happening is a pattern !

Culco british bulls moved it to a sell last night. Dont understand charts but sells at moment greater tha buys hence i reckon the small drop. Fi

Thanks FJ
The buildings were notionally sold to the underwriting business. You can google there accounts which i only learnt today and are incredibly detailed. One for another day. The buildings are all included as assets in the solvency ratio. Guesswork but the building transfer made sense in respect of the solvancy ratio.

Beach great story any resilience
Others know my story allways liked a gamble and moved from horses to shares. Stupidly focused on AIM red rock. Beacon hill nighthawk frontia - all of them less than above board. Managed to turn 90k into 20k. Piled the lot into Saga on the way down and sold everything left for a final tranch at £1.27. Need circa £6.40 to break even. If i get the £90k back i want to invest in safe bluchips spread over 10 holdings and use dividends to supplement income. Really think imb is a steal. Just rebased dividend down fom £2.10 to £1.37 profits and cash flow easily cover dividend which is now 10%. Might slice a little when Saga touches £5.

Dofus / Gooner
The building was brought in 1986 for it says in the clip a great deal of money.
Gooner the shepwayox had a clip which you posted had a clip. The sales in 2013 were intra company presumably for tax reasons to the Gibralter subsidiary of Saga and not at arms length. The ncp car park which is two thirds the size in square foot is up for sale at £5.3m based on equivelent square footage thats an £8m valuation for the Saga building as a car park . You both know more about the company than me but i still think its worth more than you may think.
In terms of ongoing costs :
Rates £245,760
They sublet 466 spaces in the car park for 325k per annum.
Facilities management in the area is £30 - £40 per square foot so £2-3m per annum
Very tidy saving to the company.
The accounts will reveal

Seagull.
Great spot - had some exchanges with gooner who can confirm includiing
1 - Saga brought building in 1986 from MEPC shepway council and BA pension fund. De Hanns dad would not reveal price but said it was a great deal of money.
2. Sale proceeds all to bottom line.
3 On about 7th feb FJ and pmh198 a builder settled on 300k value of 2 bed flats in the area and based on size and refurb values a land value to Saga of circa £20m
The accounts will have to reveal sale pricd as its a disclosure requirement and a material post balance sheet event.
Add to that thd savings in rates / utilities / maintainance this feels significant to me.
£20m sale value and discounted £20m on ongoing costs (estimated) . Really good news

Brochrock.
Cruising has three variables in Sagas presentation
1 - Load . Each 1% increase in occupancy adds £1m to the bottom line. Target 80%
2 - Price defined as price per person per night. Each £1 change in price adds 300k to the bottom line. Target £234.
3 - Fuel benchmarked at oct 19 brent. Each 10% increase adds £0.5m to bottom line.
Fuel price is not a material consideration compared to load and price.
Hope this reassures.

Rupans researching this is so difficult. I posted earlier Admirals home insurance division doubled profit in home due to favourable movements in water related damage and theft claims attributed to lockdown !!!!
Not sure what to make of this.
I can only think Direct line opperate in a high risk niche ! Nothing in Saga's trading update indicating an issue

RH great idea and i share your sadness as im interested too sadly. 50 is a fair amount of holders reading and following the board. Like you i thought maybe 20 tops. So glad its not like the advfn board that i used to follow (not post on) which has decended in name calling . I wonder where the famous 50 are based so we can plan the £10 party (or £15 if Millionaires right) . Like you im in the north east Blyth so the big market for me you and any other locals to that area in the fifty ?