Member Info for Banburyboy

Fj you will need to go some to kick me off the losers bench !!
I work in government and face off to policy areas nothing to do with travel / lesuire ! But do have a feel for this type of thing.
The market i think has priced in where we are now so no news on 22nd will have little impact. 5-10% ish.
Political perogative i think means BJ will want some good news on travel. Saying anything is incredibly hard but i do think uk only cruising (which is nothing in the greater scheme of things) he can say something positive and safely. Its a little bit of hope for the elderly, is travel related where its hard (and risky) to say much and no different to sporting events and venues in construct.
Not suggesting it more than a possibilty and its minor but its really low hanging fruit for any SpAd worth their salt to include on 22nd . SpAd is special adviser.
Knowing my luck i will get this right and there will be a £500m insurace goodwill write down!! Any goodwill write down is as previusly stated as likely as Elvis chairing there next AGM!!

Fetch far welcome. Safety in numbers and we are on the same page. Do you have other holdings or like me is Saga the only one for you ?

Most of the loss on AiM. Can afford the loss but deeply personal to me. Absolutely convinced by this and my average is a little below where we are now. At first was hacked off by De Hanns investment as that diluted existing holders and capped multi bagging . But rapidly realising the investment massively derisks this share and the expertise he brings is invaluable. Loads on here think this is a play on cruising starting which is true but my slight worry is £45m of ship repayments coming due in fy to 31st jan 22. Deferall of these will derisk saga hugely and hopefully we will be up and away in time for May 24 when £250m bond is due and can either repay through RI or relet on favourable terms. Big fan of Saga but one medium and one ling term financing issue

Slow everyone on here talks of losses but most if not all of you are or claim to be up. Im a small beer guy compared to you lot but i am 70k down. When Saga are £6.50 i get it all back. I have all my eggs in this basket and its last chance saloon. I must surely be the biggest plonker ? Can it be doubted :)

RH - you might want to be careful posting such eyewatering amounts to a public board plus what is clearly a very material liability to cgt. Partuclarly as you have disclosed your platform and trading history. I would move quickly to regularise this which might be why you posed the question in the first place . Your liability cannot exceed your gains but as others point out you can take measures to limit it.

Thanks S&S i did. That provision has not changed since my exams.
Back in the banking crash i did not have much money and needy kids and loads of grandkids arriving. I truely brought 7000 share in taylor wimpey for 4p and sold them at 6p thinking how clever i was. I have probably lost 70k on AIM since and have coralled all i have left into Saga. Need about £6.80 to break even and with indexation £15 -£20 to pay CGT !!!. I can afford to lose it all now but its deeply personal and a learning experiance. Having called TW all those years ago i bailed too soon. Ive researched Saga to death and can see no better or safer share to get back my 70k over the next two years. If we get to £4.50 we should be back in mid cap ftse250 which we fell out of in mid 19. If we get to £10 i will call it a day and give my ill gotten gains to the kids. I can then forget by deep grudge with AIM !! The thinkings mans Klana or bingo spins !

RH nothng to add on this. Im a chartered accountant in the publc sector large central department with a couple of nhs ned roles and not close to personal tax..
Fascinated by what you say from a public policy perspective. Being a rubbish investor with accumlated losses i would never be CGT liable.
I had naively thought hmrc would pass the burden of administration to the hargreaves landsowns of this world (in the same way they do to employers on PAYE). This could take the form of requirment to undertake a deduction at source (this would lead to avoidance as tax payers disagregate holdings across platforms) to the provision of soft information using computer audit assisted techniques direct to HMRC. Theres some really clever things done on persciption fraud which is buttons by comparison ( claiming a false excemption) but that involves data mining and joining things up from various hmg records . Sounds as if (Mr Sunak )one way of increasing compliance on CGT is to regulate to ensure stock brokers manage CGT for HMT

Millionaire would IR ever respond ?
Conjecture on my part but i have a likely response as Foinaven type odds so have never bothered !!

Hi Olmsey
Good reseach. Whoever advised the purchaser from a legal perspective doesnt come out of that well. Prime candidate for Trumps team in the likely event a vacancy arises !!
The company (Bennetts) had £12m or so cash when listed as an asset for resale in Sagas book.
My assumption is the net disposal proceeds of £24.2m included £12m of restricted cash going with the company. That gets us a lot closer to the £12m quoted in Saga cash flow. Probably logical.
As Churchill said a mystery wrapped up in an enigma masquerading as a paradox married to a dichotomy !!! Well something like that of the Motherland returning to a theme where of course Donald J Trump owes his alligence to.

Bennetts is weird
In note 18 (interims) they say sold to Atlanta for an enterprise value of £26m
In note 19 post balance sheet events they say on 2nd august they had net disposal procceds of 24.2m.
TU refers to £12m disposal proceeds
I really hope there is no skulldugery particularly after the sharp accounting practices on tour receipts.
If Bennetts proceeds were higher cash burn is worse than i am suggesting but we have to take what they are saying at face value !

From TU

Cash has gone up by £22m since 31st July

Comprising
Capital raise £139m plus Bennetts £12m = £151m
Less term loan repayed £120m
Net cash from one offs +£31m
Less increase in bank account £22m
Cash burn on business as usual £9m

There actually a discepancy in bennetts sale from disclosure in interims which implies some consideration is deffered or non cash thats on my to look at list

Olmney wrong £9m excludes Bennets been round this one a number of times.

TomCi complicated but
1 £6 -£8m pm is cashburn just from ships
2. Cash outflow from the trading update as adjusted for Bennetts sale for five months to 31st December 2020 was £9m
3. Inference is insurance is bringing in £5m a month
4. Business as usual cash burn is just short of £2m a month.
5. As we move into 2021 we will get a boost from covid dividend (lower claims) by way of dividend from in house underwtiter. £10- £20m
6 . Also three sites up for sale no apparant mortgage on them. Value will be revealed in annual accounts as they will need classifying as assets for resale. Builder on here reckons £30m for Folkstone site.
7. In negotiation with HMG on covid support to defer £45m of ship repayments due in 2021.
8. £130 m of credit cash available.
I dont think it reads too bad and no prospect of cash call

Olmney cash burn in five months to 31st Dec was £9m in total so less than £2m a month.
Insurance stable one off building profit and covid premium should carry us through for ages.Key for a long delay is not business as usual cash burn which is easily sustainable. Its actually ship repyaments of £45m year which they are working on. The company was caught with its pants down in March 20 it was using tour receipts to run the business cash flow and when these needed repaying it was in trouble. That led to the cash call. Tour like cruise is now ringfenced and thats in the rear mirror. Like Millionaire i think the front window view with the company is excellent.

Silver welcome to you work for Saga ? Will these staff be from oversesas or are they uk based ? Is there quaratine issues ?

Clearly the second ! You are on fire with the keyboard

LTI interesting.
If the river cruisers economic life is the same as cruisers and the per deim is the same £50m price tag would put them on a comparable basis to cruise in terms of profitibility.
Two big ifs i admit.
If river ship is that expensive cant remember any rns on puchase financing etc. Can anyone else ? Is it our first purchased river cruiser ?

Dofus - guys on here posted a picture of new river cruiser spirit of danube I know you think river cruises are coming up on the side !!! How much does one cost ? Whats the capacity ? Just want to do the maths based on cruise metrics.

Also two ships one cost £245m and the second £295m both i beleive have 999 bearths whats the difference ? Why cost diffetence
Lots of nhs chat on here i hold two ned posts at the nhs - i come on here for an escape :)

Longterm could not agree more.
RH that was a pretty offensive post. I have freinds who have died who are fit and well Horse posts on here and was incredibly poorly. Investor sums it up.
Good if you stuck to your history list or joke board

Should read Funding conerns 2021.
Having a year end so early in the year confuses !