Member Info for Banburyboy

The Daily Telegraph reports that Sagas accounts due on 7th April will include the entire write down of its insurance business that now has an intrisic value of Nil.
April Fool :)

Sum inaugural cruise in 26 July and uk based. 141 cabins left from 400. As mentioned earlier the one week cruises selling at least twice as fast as the two week one which the inaugural cruise is.

Rogue I need you on side for when we have the obligatory goodwill write off on Wednesday ……
I've become obsessed with these five UK cruises 6.30 and another 43 cabins gone since my 12.30 update.
46 hours available cabins fallen from 920 to 685. Capacity boked has risen from 54% to 66%.
Could seriously see these more or less sold out over the easter weekend. I'm assuming pattern is similer for cruises in future months.
Bodes seriously well for next Wednesday.
Whilst travel EZJ and TUI are stalling SAGA seems to be flying

Thanks Gordon as Rogue says if thats the approach we are looking even better.
On balance i think after a debate we agreed they would only sell whats available.
Whatever the currency its consistant and moving 192 cabins in less than 48 hours feels good to me

On the five June / July cruises . On Monday at 4pm 920 of the 2,000 available cabins were available. 54% booked
12.30 today Wednesday this had fallen to 728 available 64% booked.
In less than two days I think that's pretty impressive and backs up what Beachburn is saying on the ground.
Beach just me and you in the sweep stakes and you are red hot favourate !!

Interesting those 100 cabins in 22 hours equate to 500k revenue .

100 at 2 people average of 10 days £250 per night = 100*2*10*250

The 100 cabins is 5% of the 2000 available
1,180 sold = £5.9m
820 to go = £4.1m to go
The end of cash burn !!

I wrote at 4pm yesterday and on the first five cruises 920 cabins in total were shown as available. 2pm today and 100 have been booked so its now 820.
Quite impressed with that interestingly the three week cruises are moving in this small period at three times the rate of the two fortnight cruises.
Despite drop today feeling good on this

Increased Saga from 324 to 397. Pretty modest but as Tesco says every little helps

Gordon - I care never mind the market :) Good news here will be a catalyst for the SP, a signal for customer retention and probably an opportunity to drag in new customers. I think this could be a real opportunity as other forms of travel are on hold.
I looked at this at 4pm and five cruises 800 capacity = 4,000 cruisers in total and we were 54% booked.
By 8pm - 4 hours later we had added 37 cabins or 74 customers so 56%.
Sweepstakes on the % on close of play (4.30)Thursday . Banbury to ref and honest broker . I'm going for 67%

Gordon / beach logically i agree. So we are at 54%. But as beach says this could be rebbokings and we have only been generally available for a day.

Sorry should add im not articulating it well. But its crucial for diy research for these boards

Beach sorry to push back we all know they are at 80% capacity. The issue is have they put 100% up for sale only to draw the line when we have 100 cabins left as if they sell them they we are above 800 passengers. I hope so .
If they are only advertising for sale the 80% its no where as good.
Im not sure you have answered my question.

Thanks Beach great if you could.
Be good to know if available cabins was a full ship and they just don't sell 100 (being 20% of capacity) or if it is what they could sell to hit 80% if you could find that.

Look in a few days and see what movement we have had

BB

Just looked through availability of first four SoD cruises and the first trip of So.
27th June six nights 263 cabins available 526 customers
3rd July eight nights 138 cabins 276 customers
11th July 14 nights 145 cabins 290 customers
25th July 8 nights 197 cabins 394 customers
Spirit of Adventure
26th July 15 nights 177 cabins 354 customers.
So at time of writing on average on the five cruises 184 cabins available which is 368 people.
Not as good as I had hoped I think !
I do wonder if availability is against a full ship of 998 passangers and we know we can only carry 800 ?
Makes a huge difference so 368 short against 998 means we have (assuming capacity is 800) sold 79% of capacity
368 short against 800 capacity means sales are only 54%.
Anyone know ?

98% of my holding in Saga. Home Blyth Northumberland !

Its dates back to Nov 2019 but the target model was for £234 pppn at 80% capacity resulting in £80m profit for two ships combined.

On a cash flow basis we need to deduct £20m financing (interest only) , £8m overheads and £2m sundry last page of presentation. This leave's a £50m annual contribution from the ships to cash flow (so £4m a month) . Before capital repayments which have been defered into 2022.
Incrementally this is huge so from first month of sailing cruise moves from £6m per month cash burn to £4m per month cash appreciative at target levels (80% and £234ppn) . So incremental £80m additional cash flow over eight months compared to now.
Each £1 above £234 contributes an additional 300k per annum per ship to the bottom line so if we are at £300 pppn £40m for a year £26m for a part year which we can half because the target was a while ago and we have extra covid costs.
Add to this what I think on April 7th which will be a huge bonus from working at home and shutting buildings I calculated the building in central Folkstone as £2-3m alone rates, 350k to NCP for parking space utilities canteen insurance and I think its replicated at all their now closed sites.
Supplimented by lower claims bonus and one off benefit from sale of buildings which have a negligible book value.
They say markets anticipate good news so sticking with my £6.50 by August.
Good luck all

Beach any "from prices per person per night' the target is £234. Or indication on capacity ? Is ir still 80% ? No worries if not

Hi Smorty.
I completely concur your balanced and really well articulated view on low value investments.
RH did an experiment on likes and we had over 60 i think to a nominated post. So there are sixty of us all contributing to an informed well balanced and cheerful board, which i for one love being part of.
We will all have different views and see thing through different lens, your point on walter mittys i could not agree more with.
I did notice slows post straight away and my view was it was a litle insenstive particularly as it was so obviously a genuine post and we are not all on here well off and retired.
However slow is a good poster one of the gang and accepter has shruged it off brilliantly. His misses will double her money. Nice one.
I have a hidden missive here to soften you all up for when we have a zillion pound insurance goodwill write off on April 7th and i have to walk the plank !! Blue day today plus 15p

Good work Gordon. Strangely the market seems not to have factored in the uk cruise fallback. I think it was beachburn who knows his stuff on this who said they were calling round existing bookings to see if they wanted to cancel defer or still go on the uk cruises. Be interesting to see available spaces when they have been through that process. I dont think we are materially worse off now than we were two weeks ago and resuming cruises means burn of £6m a month becomes contribution of £6m per month (based on £40m per ship) . Assumption average pppn £234 and capacity 80% which should be doable.
I remain quietly confident of £6.50 this August.

Hi Duggs the cash burn is travel specific. In the 5 months to 31 dec (excluding one off sales ) company cash outflow including insurance was £11m so just over £2m a month. Like you i think this is a small bump not justifying such a big fall.!!