Member Info for Banburyboy

Ships are not needed until 27th June on Uk sailings. We annouce This weekend we can ready the ships by late may and have two fortnightly cruise from late May using Disscovery to The Azores and Madeira both Portuguse overseas territories !! Would be great to use Adventure but they will be in breach to those booking inaugr3 tour. Feels possible to me and they must have conssidered earlier sailings.

Thanks FJ and Beach
The accounts don't split the costs of cruise and tour so it's combined.
-Cost of sales for the £464m revenue in 2020 was £365m so gross margin of 22%. We know cruise operates at 50% from there presentation so I make that around 11% on Tour. So I book a £5,000 holiday £4,450 goes to the operator.
The gross margin of £99m becomes a net margin of £22m after £77m of UK selling costs (why oh why were ther not furloughed !!!!). So £22m PBT is a net 5%.
£21m of this was lost through finance costs and impairments - bringing us back to the statutory £1m PBT.

Beach we are paying the providers of the service a lot and the 11% margin we make is more or less subsumed by selling costs.

Don't want to be too negative but if someone would buy Tour for a notional £1 we would fly. I hope they are still looking for a buyer.

Beach and horse I hope you are both right ?
Some eye watering numbers from the 2020 and 2019 accounts all pre pandemic

2020 – Insurance revenue £304m PBT £131m margin 43%
2020 – Travel revenue £464m PBT £1m ….. margin not a lot
Travel Revenue 80% tour only 20% cruise

2019 – Insurance revenue £350m PBT £192m margin 55%
2019 – Travel revenue £457m PBT £17m …. margin 3.5%
Travel Revenue 79% tour only 21% cruise.

Cruise has some potential to be earning accretive but its relatively small. Tour is 80% of travel and is a I think a dead dog or rather elephant

I must admit to smiling about Millionaire’s recent post copied below the investment potential is because of insurance and in spite of travel.

“Earnings as a result of the unlocking of travel turning losses into profits which will be transformational to the groups finances.

The investment case is quite simple here and no need to overthink it... we are essentially buying future travel earnings in perpetuity at a snip of the actual future value. Few realise this and are thinking far too short term.

I have many friends still working in the city who are starting to wake up to the investment potential here and some have started building v hefty positions now.”

Apologies if this is not what everyone wants to hear but it’s factual. Be good to understand the positive investment case for Tour. We know form there presentations Cruise has potential.
Banbury

Thanks Alnwick
I value you as a poster to.
Iv always been pretty consistent on standalone insurance valuation somewhere between £900m and the £1.6bn a similer sized organisation Hastings went for.
The goodwill in the accounts is £718m and the risk adjusted discount rate was 9.8%. The central scenario gave headroom on goodwill of £216m. Goodwill cannot be re-instated so the minimum value of the insurance business is £934m. £6.67 a share - that's why i'm here. My £8 is based on Insurance valued at £1.12bn and travel nil. Agree it might be conservative but its reasonable and everyone of us is a winner at £8.
I must admit i'm out between £7-8. I wish everyone looking for more every success but I think its too early for travel to make a positive contribution. All i'm really looking for is to stem the cash flow loss and for it to break even. Time will tell.

Hi Horse good to see you back after the spell on the sidelines hope the recovery is going well.

Agree short term booking are looking very good but long term at the risk of being a pariah on my favorite board I was a bit underwhelmed particularly by January 22 both sales over the last month and overall capacity levels.

I have been tracking since 4th April
• The 6th Jan cruise had 249 cabins available on 4th April, 212 on 28th April and 205 today. So 48.7% occupancy on the 80% made available.
• The 21 Jan cruise 109 cabins on 4th April, spookily 109 on 28th and 93 tonight. 77% occupancy on the 80% made available
• The 5th Jan cruise at 83 nights is a deal breaker and represents one sixth of the total cruise income for the year. 4th April 210, 28th April 204 available and tonight 203 available. Occupancy on 80% maximum 49%.

Based on the full ship capacity of 998 passengers three cruises are at 39%, 61% and 39%. Is that good? I’m not convinced.

In addition, I had a conversation with Beachburn and he noticed like me the cabin availability can go up. The inference is they are drip feeding availability. If true, the analysis is rendered meaningless but the position most likely poorer that we believe.

On a more positive note nothing to say booking won’t fly when we have the definitive announcement on cruising and its safety.

Thanks Joe - I am inviting all manner of insults with that !! Cant even remember doing it.
Strange feeling posting slightly negative posts on my beloved Saga. My heart says £15 but my head says £8.
I would love for them to sell Titan and just have just the cruises my head would then say £10. Titan are here there and every where on destinations and I see sporadic covid / travel issues in those area's and to coin millionaire's (aka Wilkins Micawber the Dicken's eternal optimist)phrase) losses" in perpetuity"

Quite a chunky buy from Euan - bodes well maybe we are worth £15 :)

Broachrock IMO is right.
Alnwick a lift from my post when Millionaire posted similar.
Elliot wanted to break up the company. In part because the combination was not value enhancing in stock market terms. The risks from travel which is mainly tour are large and ongoing and it remains the elephant in the room
£15 is hugely rose tinted. I think £8 is possible with a fair wind.

Travel is valued as distressed and far below zero we all agree that. We all agree if cruise can get going and break even the price will rise.
Travel has lost this company a fortune and is the weak link and always will be. Here's some evidence :
-Deltiology brought for £20m loss making , £20m or so exceptional this year sold for a notional £1. Great move !!
-Titan - riddled with accounting issues, £100m had to be replaced as company using receipts in advance of travel - let to a cash call and the consolidation. Nearly buried the company
- Travel periodically hit my world events TC cost us £5m , Iceland volcano £3m the list is endless
- Cruise for the next twelve years not very cash flow position. So based on 80% occupancy and £234ppn the ANNUAL cash flow from Destiny is £7m and Adventure £2m. A whopping £9m each year. Wafer thin margins and a high risk operating model,
- From year 13 we don't have the repayments £45m and the financing £16m which makes the math’s a lot better
But will the ships be boutique in thirteen years who will want to sail on them ? Even the accounting valuation on the ship is lower than amount owed refer to the accounts impairment note .
This company will deliver my £8 per share BECAUSE of insurance and IN SPITE of travel.
Future earning's from travel will not be materially value enhancing to Saga in their own right but they will allow in time the market valuation to reflect the £7 that insurance is worth.

Whilst a big fan of Saga I can’t see more than £8, don't think travel is worth much , but believe its suppressing the share price.
Sorry if this appears negative but I think I’m objective. I really would love for you to be right

Im a

Highest volume since 7/8th April. Sentana crossed threshold on 9th. Holdings rns Thursday or frday ?

Gordon 21sr June not close to this when you say "full capacity' is that 80% or 100%. I suspect the former but may have missed it. Thanks Banbury

Hi Nicname.
Welcome to the Board. Do you work for Saga knowing about the share cash split.
At first glance the bonus pot looks very high. The shares cash up to £769k and with cash is £2.3m. Total pot in 2020 looks to me like £582k so this year big increase. The criteria used last year were profit beford tax and cashflow both of which collapsed in 2020/22. The renumaration committee has no doubt ditched that and probably done it by reference to share price.
Feels over generous and slightly underhand to me. Shareholders can allways vote against when full details emerge :)

Thanks Olmney that one. It posted then dissapeared for a while. Strange an no matter

Anyone know what happens with these. I posted a pretty evidence based response to a post here. It just dissapeared

Millionaire - sorry but that a really misleading post .
Like Slow and steady I think your £12-15 bottom draw is hugely rose tinted. I think £8 is possible with a fair wind.
Travel is valued as distressed and far below zero we all agree that. We all agree if cruise can get going and break even the price will rise.
Travel has lost this company a fortune and is the weak link and allways will be. Here's some evidence :
-Detinology brought for £20m loss making , £20m or so exceptional this year sold for a notional £1. Great move !!
-Titan - riddled with accounting issues, £100m had to be replaced as company using receipts in advance of travel - let to a cash call and the consolidation. Nearly buried the company
- Travel periodically hit my world events TC cost us £5m , Iceland volcano £3m the list is endless
- Cruise for the next twelve years not very cash flow position. So based on 80% occupancy and £234ppn the ANNUAL cash flow from Destiny is £7m and Adventure £2m. A whopping £9m each year. You describe this as buying future earnings for a snip of the actual value. I call it wafer thin margins and a high risk operating model,
- As for in pertuity ….I think you need to come out of simple mode, and do some research . That does mean for ever
- Granted from year 13 we don't have the repayments £45m and the financing £16m which makes the maths a lot better
But will the ships be boutique in thirteen years who will want to sail on them ? Even the accounting valuation on the ship is lower than amount owed refer to the accounts please impairment note .
This company will deliver my £8 per share BECAUSE of insurance and IN SPITE of travel.
Future earning's from travel will not be materially value enhancing to Saga in their own right but they will allow in time the market valuation to reflect the £7 that insurance is worth.
You and the city boys need to research this one a lot more carefully and its far more complex than you present..
CJ we spoke about balance and whilst a big fan of Saga I cant see more than £8, don't think travel is worth much , but believe its supressing the share price.
Sorry if this appears negative but I think i'm objective.

CjJ quite a few risks have been coveref on the Board. This includes :
- pademic related isues being ongoing.
- £250m bond matures in May 24.
- competition & market authority review of insurance market - three year fixes could be vulnrable s anti competative.
- long term on going value of ships. They are new now but the model requires 20 years use. Will we get that will the ships be attractive in ten years
- will rdh take us private at a rate less than say £8 a share. Many on here millionaire etc think its worth more.
Bottom line in the insrance company alone is worth £800m to 1bn. It makes £140m a year. Travel should contribute £40m so company should make £180m which on p/e ratio of say a modest £6 is £7.70 a share.
Still a high risk to reward ratio compared to other,
recovery stocks in my opinion. Banbury

Thanks CJ on your wishes. You come accross well iIm probably too well reseached and involved here and bore the board senseless !! The advantages of opting out of corporartion tax and entering the tonnage tax scheme for cruise !! So can be over powering - great to have you on the board

Cj i lost a fortune on AIM for me. I became interested in Saga at 40 -50p old money which i thought was too good to be true. I averaged down and down and am today about 10k up on Saga but 40k down on shares. I need £6 to break even overall. I was convinced by Saga before RDH and am more convinced now. Two observations :
RDH effectively diluted my holding and alll long term holders but he derisked the investment propsition. .Thankfully my last trache when i sold everything was £1.27 new money.
2. The company played hard and loose with tour receipts ( not cruise these were ring fenced) We could have survived the cash burn from not travelling as wr know insurance covers it. What we could not cover was the £100m of tour receipts that we had used to fund the day to day business. The accounts are really clear on this and there is a contrite note around working with abta and the regulator and its now ring fenced.
Tour is a disaster destinollgy cost £20m rackef up a £20m exceptional in the last accouts and was sold for a quid notional. Titan travel officiandos will disagree is in my opinion to high risk and needs closing and we base the offer around ocean and river cruises only.
Been here a long time as i know have others.

£3.82 to sell.

Why am I here.
Insurance value is £900m minimum as evidence in accounts valuation. Travel is a risk and volatile but once the dust settles even with travel valued at nil (with no risk) this is worth £6 a share.
If travel does well the £6 value increases.
Lots of positives very few negatives.