Member Info for Banburyboy

Has anyone religiously followed there advice.
They seemed to have been right all but two times on Saga and £100 in August is now £488 !! Seems to good to be true but i cant see the catch ! Any ideas . Or when Saga gets to £6.40 should i just follow BB ?

Rogue i also went quiet big on Halfords in at 60p had a good feeling no debt, car repairs and got lucky they got exemption from closing. Crashed out too soon at 90p and put the lot on Saga 16p old money. When i kitchin sinked it was my last two holdings vistry and imb and picked up final 5000 shares for £1.27. Learnt a lot over the years and who know i might do better second time around !!

Well i think you all know my story - 70k down mainly on Aim. Gambling my last 20k or so to get it back. On 16th October sold all other shares and kitchin sinked the lot on Saga at £1.27 ( average a bit higher as in earlier) Need about £6.40ish to get back to 90k and even. Not selling not trading this is it. Not sure what i will do at £6.40 but its personal. Seriously have researched this company to death outlook is really bright. Market took refinancing talk (sky ) in stride, dofus the man on the inside suggests company is buzzing. Interested in value of covid premium in Aprils accounts which the say is 5bp off loss ratio, sale value of three properties which they have to disclose, and value of titan (was £100m + before covid) .With goodwill fully written down and little in the way of assets / liabilities the full sale proceeds should hit both accounting bottom line and cashflow.

Demeck whats the £175m ?
Recent fund raise of £140m
Facilities and cash of circa £200m
Cash burn £9m over last 5 months - insurance nearly covering travel.
Sky news reported over weekend that Saga were looking at refinancing but this was better terms not more debt.
£45m ship repayments due in 2021 but should be covered by refinancing above. So ship debt falls £45m term increases by same.
I cant see any cash issues irrespective of if cruising happens in May

Oldham From trading update plus my comparison with last years accounts

• Policy growth +1%
• Customer retention 80% + 5% on last year’s accounts
• Margins £71 per policy in line with expectations – last year’s accounts £74.30
• Three year fixes 596k this is a fabulous figure and locks in margins
• 60% of all customers opt for a fix
• 59% of customers direct last year 57% cuts out comparison site margin
• 5 basis point reduction in loss ratio as fewer covid claims
• PBT in insurance expected to be £140m in line with previous year before claims windfall

Insurance really resilient. Hastings has exactly the same PBT and incredibly sold for £1.66bn in the summer.

Market is waking up to the fact that the valuation over the last year or so has ignored we are in the main an insurance company.

Recent capital raise has de risked cruise. Cash burn £9m period from 1st August to 31st December after adjusting for one off sales e'g bennetts cycle insurance . Ships are burning £6m (lower end of range as advised in TU) but just over £4m covered by insurance.

Still undervalued and insurance stable

RDH average price £2.71 up £1.07 a share
He up £40m on his £100m
Nice work

Rogue yes goodwill. Unfortunately you can never re- instate it but balance sheet valuation of goodwill will be fine. Lots of metrics margins / retension / fixes / loss ratio flat and in the main improving . This has real momentum close to £3.80 !!

Olmney needs about £700m to get back in ftse 250. Found about ten companies lower than this who could drop out 41mprint, capita, citvas ,fidelity, sv morgan, siddell petrofac , provident financial ,sabre insurance ,tbc bank and vina . Think £5 and we are back in. I think its reassessed every quarter.

To be fair Millionaire called the last few days like a dream. Im sure he said late 300,s by the end of the week

Leem as i said yesterday this is not a travel company. In a no covid world 80% of profit is insurance. The market seems to have ignored this in its valuation. Put another way if travel was delayed for another year it would not be a disaster for Saga it would for tui carnival easy jet etc

Most posters know i am all in
Just musing but close Thurs this was £2.85 in four days we are up 28% on sentiment and optimism rather than news.
Great week but reflecting on a very strange and unprecidented market.

Leem its insanely over sold. The insurance division makes £120m a year more in pandemic !! Confirmed in recent trading update.Recently refinaced. Market cap was £1.5bn a a years back which is £11 a share. They could survive mothballling for years off insurance. So insanely oversold i think .

Guys super day. Millionaires tea leaves obviously working. Over the moon. Dont think we will see the £2 _ £2.99 range.

I like it when hes otherwise occupied. Dont have to think twice on the threads !! Millionare im hugely hopeful on Saga's chances but £8 no resistance sounds the stuff of tea leaves or dreams. Hope you are right !!

Market likes by take after 20p drop up to £2.97.

Sorry slow read your post.
Bonds £250m due may 2024.
They have a large spread but were trading at 90-95% of face value when i looked.
A smalll profit in refinancing.
I beleive earlier in the pandemic they were trading at 75%.
Agree bonds a long term issue but 2021 repayments more immediate

This is in my opinion routine and precautionary and what they have said in TU.
Cash burn in the 5 months to 31 Dec was £9m . This excludes one offs, shows insurance nearly covers travel burn.
The real issue is the £45m that is due on ship repayments this year (2021) last year that was deffered and this year they are looking at options.
One option is to refinance and to pay the £45m. Two key points :
1 No capital raise needed as cash outflow is sustainable until cruising is back
2. Under refinancing debt does not go up you merely swap one form of debt for another.
Current interest rates on ship loans is 3.7% they may actually be able to broker a better deal with insurance as collateral in an ultra low interest rate environment.
The sky story is not really news

Very good stories. Slow steady two of my favourate racing stories :
1. Flockton grey - worth a google. The tried to pass off a four year old in a two year old 5 furlong sprint. On the markets the sting was badly disguised and the execution was horrid it won by 20 lengths over 5f resulting in an investigation.
2. Back in the eighties i had a bet on a horse called the drunkan duck in the foxhunters at Cheltenham. It cruised up the run in with the eventual winner but the jockey who was a major never used his whip hand which was montionless. It lost by a short head. I was absolutely fuming and it was before the internet etc. Read in the paper the next day the Jock as a military man had bravely decided to continue with the ride despite sustaining a broken arm a few hours before. !! Thats why im top plonker !!
Have a good day Monday i think a specific announcement is possible and there will be no drop as the general direction on the virus is positive.

4.33 at Wincanton. Top weight and top jock Bryony Frost

I agree with Culco Uk cruising as said before is a low risk policy win annoucement . Lets give it 15% probibility. Price could go up £1. 85% no specific announcment thats priced in and i cant see a big drop. Im not a trader but the risk reward here i think points as culco says to do nothing.