Member Info for Banburyboy

Pint
To be clear I am not recommending going all in on Saga merely responding to a question from a known poster.
Everyone's circumstances are unique - I get 40% tax relief and gamble in a SIPP. I have a good pension that kicks in at 60. I've recklessly lost 70-80k BHR and Hawk mostly to blame If anyone remembers them. And to add insult to injury Hawk still sits worthless in my SIPP just to dig in the knife.
Allways fancied this company and brought in from 80p downwards. Took the plunge when it dropped to £1.30 (new money ) and went all in. Not a conscious decision it just happened. Was down to my last 20k now up to 40k am I happy yes. Would I recommend it no but I really think this one has a fair wind for any newbie.
Many posters on here know me and this is a company I have really researched and theres more to come on the property portfolio !!!!. The bear case is allways a worry so what is that case ?
- RDH takes its private - unlikely but possible but you would think above £6,
- As you say Cruise delays for say another year. The two businesses insurance and cruise are incredibly complementary in a pandemic. Reduced claims add £40m to an insurance business that generates £120m already paying for cruise being idle (£6-8m a month cash burn ) Its like ice creams and umbrella's allways a sale
- Regulation in market for insurance nothing on the horizon
- Funding ship repayment can be deffered and probably qualify for government support if it came to that
- £250m bond refinacing. That's 2024 so some time yet.
I would never recommend all in theres just a story how I got here. Unlike RH I wont trade but i'm pretty happy with where we are.
Banbury

RH Im 98% in here with a very small holding in CRN energy.
My holding is a third yours. I play the stock market for fun . Fun and AIM have lost me maybe 70 -80k. Went all in here and HFD in April and left HFD too early. £7 would get me all my money back and im not moving and do fancy my chances
Love the board and the people and watch out for the mega boring post on the three properties they have for sale ! Banbury

Long term holders will know the relevance

The Sage of Folkstone is up £7m with his £100m investment and 36.856m shares @£2.71 average.
Stand back the Sage of Omaha(Buffet) arise the Sage of Folkstone.

Volume also good 655k 2 hors 30 minutes in. Does feel like momentum.
Less than a week to trading update lets hope it doesn't go horribly wrong :)
If its good news then (as expected) we can rest easy.
Just hope I've not misjudged this
Banbury

Volcano stick to one board rather than duck and dive across them and read the research.
Everyone will say their share is massively undervalued but this one is based on below :

1,Insurance - profit £130m valuation £900m to £1.66bn. Based on goodwill / Hastings recent sale.
2. Potential one off from lower claims. Limited as we re-insure but £40m possible.
3. Three sites up for sale. Original cost £12m huge savings from working at home.
4. Recent capital raise and insurance covering cruise cash burn for as long as needed.
5. Lloyds top accreditation as a cruise operator in covid environment.
6. Press indicating over 50,s is going nuts on holidays. Per diem sales price from website analysis 30% ahead of assumption more than compensating for reduced cabin occupancy (80% re covid)
7. Trading update 26th Jan will be good
For balance I have a bear case to but whilst risks they are minor

TomC following on from Rogue not a fan of retail. Card high risk.
Saga the burn on cruise is covered permanently from insurance the two businesses are really complementary.
Stand alone value of Insurance £900m to £1.66bn . Based on management estimate (goodwill) and Hastings sale.
Market cap £350 with Rogue - you have not missed the boat if you excuse the pun and far lower risk that your other three

2.87 to sell. Hope orient and others got in

Soory Rupans and FJ Gooner a cas of mistaken identity. FJ is the source of building info.To much haste

Good info Milliomaire it does feel that way. I called 30% on trading update but that was before the recent rise so im going for £3.50.
Im immersed in the post by Rupans on the three properties for sale cost £12m, land values from valuation office etc and the strange holding in overseas subsidiaries. Nothing sinister but feels like a one off to the bottom line of £20m and £5m or so savings per annum in rates / insurance / facilities management and utilities.
Not major compred to insurance / cruise but as Tesco say every little helps.
In the interest of balance have you other posters anything to add to the three items i listed on the bear case ?

Insurance £130m profit cruise / tour £70m in steady state. Posr tax say £160m half in divs say £80m. Say 55p a share yeld at 5% share price £11.
Orient another way of explaing multi bag. But a while down the track !

Millionaire i have delusions of moving the market !! The donald has proved if you repeat somthing enough it gets traction. His election repetion was of course a lie. I think this is evidentially true.

For completeness the bear case ?
Covid goes on for a long time and no cruise in 2021 ?
RDH takes us private at less than full value ? Dont buy into that but Dofus who knows the company does so on the list.
Regulator hammers insurance companies
For completeness any others ?

Orient
I should add Saga only have two brand new 1,000 capacity ships and offer door to door free chaufering to UK only point of departure.
Management have said at 80% occupancy and a ticket price of £235 per person per day each ship would make £40m per year before interest / depreciation and tax.
Covid constricts capacity to 80% and any % fall is + or - £1m
Ticket price sensitivity is 300k for + or - £1.
Evidence suggests ticket price is £70 up so more than compensating for any capacity loss which is limited.

The market cap is £350m when insurance on its own is worth £900 - £1.66bn
Its held back by the obvious problems with cruise but will roar back when its up and running.
Trading update on 26th Jan will be very enlightening
Best of luck in your choice

See my post from a couple of days ago
1.Insurance - profit £130m valuation £900m to £1.66bn. Based on goodwill / hastings recent sale.
2. Potential one off from lower claims. Limited as we re-insure but £40m possible.
3. Three sites up for sale. Original cost £12m huge savings from working at home.
4. Recent capital raise and insurance covering cruise cash burn for as long as needed.
5. Lloyds top accreditation as a cruise opperator in covid environment.
6. Press indicating over 50,s are going nuts on holidays. Per deim sales price from website anaysis 30% ahead of asumption more than compensating for reduced cabin occupancy (80% re covid)
7. Trading update 26th jan will be good

£2.74 to sell. Positive posts and good news impacting ?

FJ - two really good posts. I think the evidence for a really strong update is compelling. Expcting £3.50 to £4 by the end of the month.

Anyone on the Board had it ? Bet theres a few ? FJ ? Rogue ? Poker ? Aspers ? Millio ? RH ? Bat ? Dofus ? . Anyone particularly Horse
We must have one or two ?

Majority of large businesses dont have it as has to be speciic and is prohibitatively expensive. I understand the LTA for Wimbledon had it and are due £25m.
Sagas business was interupted by Thomas Cook and it cost them £6m that was not covered.

A breif reminder of why Horse and his analysis matter.
Its all coming together on insurace home working and building sales.
Cruise needs 80% occupancy and £235 per day per person ticket sales to deliver £40m pbti&d per ship. Sensativities are £1m per 1,% on occupancy and 300k per £1 on ticket price.
So we need full ships at 80% occupany to deliver.
Horses analysis showed occupany a month ago as
April / May 72%
July 58.4%
Aug 74%
Jan 22 53%
Average of 64% so profit per ship down £16m based on saga sesativites
Average price of available cabins from Horse £319pppn July / August. This is £84 above the £234 needed. Applying Sagas own sesativity of 300k per £ implies £25m per ship extra revenue.
What mr market in my opinion is missing is that capacity constraint (e.g losing 20%) was allready in pre covid business as usual plans. Bookings for the future are way up and price is fantastic.
Trading update will reveal more and im less confident of my 30% as we have gained this week but think news on all fronts will be excellent
Horse are you able to update analysis for newbes

1.Insurance - profit £130m valuation £900m to £1.66bn. Based on goodwill / hastings recent sale.
2. Potential one off from lower claims. Limited as we re-insure but £40m possible.
3. Three sites up for sale. Original cost £12m huge savings from working at home.
4. Recent capital raise and insurance covering cruise cash burn for as long as needed.
5. Lloyds top accreditation as a cruise opperator in covid environment.
6. Press indicating over 50,s are going nuts on holidays. Per deim sales price from website anaysis 30% ahead of asumption more than compensating for reduced cabin occupancy (80% re covid)
7. Trading update 26th jan will be good
Whats not to like !!!
Need a view on my barnpot idea of getting into bed with a builder for saga retirement my point 3.
And finally
The poster known as horse to update update his detailed analysis of cruise. Other posters have done this but no one to the depth of Horse !!

I love Saga me !!!

Really strange market action up 6% then lost it all as market fell. Market down to intra day low of 1.4% down and we have just shot up to 267.
Not one that understands this but seems very positive