Member Info for Banburyboy

Horse - the Banbury kidney is joining you.
Love the data provided.
I took the liberty of averaging your April / May July and August data. Its a simple average (not adjusted for cruise days) and I have 68% occupancy.
On price you have no April / May average so have assumed £301 as June which gives an average price of £315.
What does this mean ?

Jan 28th 2020 trading update - cruise sales were 76% of target for full year 20/21. The key word is target which is 80% so on a comparable basis it's 80% at 76% = Just shy of 61%.
As you say Horse on your analysis we are at 68% with another six weeks of bookings to add to make it comparable.
My only worry is say you have cherry picked better months what's November 21 and Jan 22 look like ?
Jan 2019 trading update was Spirit of discovery 69% and spirit of adventure 34% so on a comparable basis 52% of target and 41% like for like on your metric (68%).
On ticket price at £315 is £80 higher than plan and each £1 adds 300k to the bottom line per ship. Maintain £315 for a year that's £24m per ship = £48m in total just from margins to bottom line.
I agree there is an issue on sustainability but the post covid surge could recover what we have lost in the 20/21 year on cruise.
Lots to be really excited about here and that big date is Tuesday 26th January when we get news :
- Cruise booking margins and occupancy fantastic as above
- Insurance very resilient - lower travel revenue more than subsumed by lower claims
- Large releases of capital as lower claims have worked through to releases
- Many of the three year fixes moving into year 2 boosting the margins that have been under pressure and retention rates.
- And for Rogue confirmation of the carrying value of insurance goodwill so no further write downs.
I think they will kitchen sink the extraordinary costs. They will group them as one redundancy, covid remediation re getting ships ready, costs of working from home etc .They will announce fairly major future estimates of efficiencies as working from home and remote operations become the norm.
20/21 accounts wont be that pretty but a small profit as Insurance profits cover cruise losses but the forward look will be spectacular. You all know my tip up 30% on Tuesday 26th January. Banbury

Pianesta Dofus will know but thought they were all inclusve so not much in the way of extras. In the Spirit of Discovery presentation 4th Nov 19 they said they were getting £275: per day ( against £235 target). Each £1 is worth 300k so thats £12m per year straight to bottom line. Given pre pandemic they said they were acheiving £275 i would have thought it was a minimum they would get in 2021. Hopefully more in jan trading update

Horse £40m earnings bit&d underpinned by 80 % occupancy and £235 per diem revenue as you say looking good. Keep up the good analysis

Horse arse. Also 80% occupancy and the required per diem ticket price comes from the nov 19 presentation from Saga IR. Because they read it somewhere. I think its a must read for the great analyysis you are doing.

Horsearse - if i recollect somone pointed out you were assuming all cabins were double when some were single. I thought that made the figures even better ? Did you adjust for that ?
My only worry is that in your six weeks whilst occupancy has gone up its in the low single digits (agreed from a good base ) In those six weeks we had the vacine and Saga saying (director of cruise)they had the best bookings in company history. I just cant square that with your %'s. I think its more the methodolgy than cruises not booming. Welcome your thoughts ?

Link to poker chips excellent post. £40m bitd&a is the same as £20m pbt.. Diff £8m memorization £8m financing £4m central costs.

RH massively skewed towards insuance.

PBT six months to 31st July 19
Tour 4.2m profit
Cruise 3.4 loss
Other health finance 1.6
Insurance (inc underwriting) 70.6m
Central costs £20.2

July 20 interims
Tour 18.8m loss
Cruise 15.4 loss
Other finance etc 1.2 profit
Insurance 70m profit
Central costs 21.1m

Cruise never had the two new ships target is £20m per ship .
Insurannce jewel in crown value of 1bn based on discouting and carrying value of goodwill in july 20 interims or £1.66bn on hastings metrics where pbt is identical

Culco that post is 3rd May 2000. And not helpfull Bookings according to the director of cruise are the highest in the companies history. That article was two oe three werks ago.

No previous notice of trading update !

6th Dec 17 TU all good
12th April 18 - £180m profit full year divy 9p
27th September 18 - all good 3p int divy
16th Jan 19 - TU all good

Then Lance dropped the big one which ****ef everyone off as he had said on 16th Jan two weeks before year end all was fine.

4th April 19 - huge write off in Jan 19 accouts. Fundimetal review lower everything. Forward look for year ended 31st Jan 20 £105 - £120m. 1p final divy. Share price collapsed.
2nd April 20 FY profits £110m divy suspended as covid emerging.
The swit ch 16 Jan to 4th April led to Lance being public enermy number one.

Have to wait a few weeks for my trading update and 30%. I think they will kitchin sink with exceptionals - covid costs, remedial measures on cruise internal configeration, redundancy restucturing. But travel goodwill nil and interims indicate no write down on insurance. Foward looking cruise booking lower claims news should be excellent.
Im hoping they are excited as they pre announced this but need to look back at past years to see if advance notice is usual.
Anyone know about joint brokers. Is two a good thing bad thing sign of any corporate skulldugory or just business as usual ?

RH good post. You might be out of words but newbies might be interested that RDH average price is £2.78 on his £100m

Bear im at £9 at the end of 2021. 30% rise on trading update due soon (1) very high cruise bookings (2) low level of claims in lockdown. Uk government annoucment on cruise restarts will give it a shot in the arm. It will tread water until either trading update or govt clearing cruising. But either of these or both will be catayst for sp rise

Thompson a fair point but i would be dissapointed if the metrics in the novenber 19 cruise presentation resulting in £40m per ship ebidt did not factor in agent commission. What do you think ?
We had some analysis earlier on per diem ticket revenue. Cant remember who did it but it was way ahead of nov 19 prediction. I concur that might have been inflated but was more than any reasonable margin so im hopefull.
Looks like thompson / beach are in the same business and dofus in the know.
RH need to look at cash burn but sounds positive with financing included (i.e some buying of ship rather than pure burn) 30% on trading update mark my words !!!

Suppressing benefits from lower claims, ultra prudent cash burn from cruise , best sales ever on cruise , dofus hot tip of river cruise coming on the outside.
We are in for a january suprise ( something donald dunce the deluded one wont get). Sticking with 30% plus on trading update landing ? BB

Dofus welcome back. Ive missed you. You,ve answered all my questions so as ever thanks.
My only follow up is £6-8m cash burn on ships.. this seems to me pretty high and i had assumed it was because they did not furlough based on no mention in any of the accounts or news releases.
Could you double check furlough ? Take out 80% of staff and whats to burn ? Port fees / skeletal maintaince im drawing a blank .
£6-£8m is huge so annularised £72m to £96m cash burn for laying empty
Ticket revenue say £235 per day 1600 cusomers (80% occupancy) say 320 days sailing £120m less profit btd&i stated at £40m per ship so £40m per annum costs whilst running.
Im clearly missing something but cash burn £6-£8m per monrh feels higher than when the ships are opperating and way too high with furlogh.
Dont understand this and will need to review interims for clues .

Thanks Pianesta.
I dont think it could be more explict than that - best ignore my ramblings. Like you dont think divs are a factor its stabilisation and recovery for me both of business and SP.

Rs28 hard question to answer about dividends.
I can see why newbies would ask. 80p Eps has been mentioned here a lot. I have steady state and conservative Pbt at insurance £150m cruise £40m (two ships combined after £8m int £8m dep and £4m central). So take off tax and its say 80p to £1.10. Say 50% pay out and 40p not unreasonable. Circa 4.5 % yield on my £9 target.

Wind back to the now and rhe last thing imo we need in the next two years is dividends. Cash flow is impacted by loan repayments and those and replacement for the term loan should be a priority.
From memory only covernent tests were driven by debt to asset ratios and avaiable cash flow cover so any divis whilst not explicitly prohibited implicity mean the target is further away.
Had they received help from the furlough scheme they would be prohibited from paying dividends unless they paid it back (supermarkets rate releif vty (bovis / lindon) staff wages have all paid back. To the best of my knowledge saga have not benefited from furlough and i dont understand why as it would make a dent in £6-8m cash burn. Great posters on here and no one has explained that one Dofus ? This one and your comment on RDH going private remain outstanding should you return as a keyboard warrier . Any news on your trials ? BB

Hi all
You will be aware Saga year end is 31st January.
They have always dropped a trading update in prior to the year . So 6th Dec in 2017, 16th January in 2019 and 28th January 2020. The earlier update was good news 2019 and 2020 the story was not great.
So for 2021 we can expect
- no further write down's other than the interim write down of travel goodwill to zero (£60m)
- first half PBT was £15.9m I expect that to slightly increase in second half as we get reserve releases from lower claims feeding through and lower costs of suspending cruise.
- Insurance PBT first half £70m i'm expecting £150m full year
- The all important news on cruise booking occupancy and full price margins. The Director of cruise has already said its the most advance bookings they have had in their history.
In my opinion this statement will be the one that provides the real momentum / traction here and I would not be surprised to see 30% on the day.
Could land any time and I think early January once Xmas bookings are collated.

I could be wrong but I do think the trading update will be the catalyst we are all waiting for and push the share up a leg or two. Banbury

Castle the general consensus on this board seems to be no deal wont impact the companies costs or trading prospects. Im no expert but minded to agee. I suspect Saga will be dragged up and down by sentiment. I hope for the sake of my kids / grandkids and the country we get a deal but not sure once the dust settles it makes much odds to Saga.

248 to sell. This share moves quickly ! Hopefully sentiment changing ?