Member Info for Banburyboy

Thanks Tomc
The company has got things wrong :
1 - spent £81m of tour deposits in advance of customers taking holidays. Thats in cash flow in interims. Without that i dont think we would have had a cash call and been a bigger bagger !
2. 2000 travel staff not on furlough !! That would cut cash burn from 6-8m a month to 3-4m and make combined co cash generative even with no cruises. Why not furlough
3. Covid lower claims bonus circa £30m based on customer no,s and other insurers stats. We are giving it back as a loyalty bonus £60 a customer ? Why most of our customers dont need it and are in the early years of a three year fix !!!.

You asked whats it worth lot more if we retain the £30m and furloughed but that decion is made by the company.

I did some comparative calculations on hastings and have insurance at £800m even with a 20% dicount. Cruise rwo ships £40m each before interest tax and depcetion on a conservative valuation of 5 = £400m.
So my back to normal valuation is £1.2bn so £8-9 a share ( four bagger) it was a eight bagger but dilution ensured survival but dashed my hopes off mega gains.
All now a play on covid 3 months of succesfull sailing and we are home and hosed.

Rdh paid £100m for 36,855 555 new shares. Thats fact and an anchor. He paid 2.71p new money average. He paid 27p for 224.4m old shares costing £60.6m. These converted to 14.96m of his new shares £4.05.

Having described it this way ive changed my mind (womans perogative) and i think offer has to be £4.05.

Should have added i dont think the 27p at 15= £4.05 is relevent.

Olm - there must be a rule but my take would bre 27p valued old saga at £302m. (1,144 M shares)He added bulk of £150m so seems fair on equivelent basis minimum buyout £2.16 ( £302m at 140m shares)

Very close to your caculation but done differently so confident you are right . Interestingly that is lower than his breakeven hes put in £100m for 36.855m new shares so £2.71m

Im £2.92 across Sipp £3.66 and trading accout £2.07. The mrs sipp is £3.26. 53k to recover at breakeven for me.

Anyone out there not averaging down and in profit ?
Anyone like me got mixed feelings on rescue yes it secured us but it constrained any multi bag to £10 max in a few years. Thats market cap of £1.4bn and 67p in old currency much lower than its been through dilution.

Well guys we are up and running on chat. Pleased with last few days. Any predictions for Friday ? Im going 225 15p old money.

Rupans i posted 14th october re Hastings sale based on PBT And customer numbers and relative size i have insurance business as £900m stand alone no debt. That includes a 20% discount. Not sure if discount should be bigger as combined business clearly has cross selling benefits

I think the anaysis is a bit one dimensional and ignores insurance which is cash generative £6-£8m. Cash ouflow in july interims was £52.1m. They had a one off benefit from disposals of £18m care agency patricia something so say revised outflow £70m. Included was a £46m one off from tour (they spent the deposits ) and one off restructuring of tour £20m. So roughly cash burn on cruise is covered by existing cash flow on insurance meaning the business is cash neutral. None of this factors in either sale of bennets or destinolgy (presumably buttons ) or reduced motor claims from covid (estimate £30m per annum based on LV. So my take is cash flow head above water on opperations despite no cruise . I accept any ship installments will eat into available cash but debt redues accordingly. I really think its a case of wait and see but no major cash burn at group level and RI cash wont be burnt through

Fantastic poker chips you really know your stuff. Think that regulation provides a lot of security as we will have sight of finals and 2021 interims by the time the period lapses. And more importantly a year to get cruising again.

Ive seen a number of posts across this and other boards that rdh cant take this out below 27p buy in £4.05 new money. Dont know where it comes from (prospectus) but been quoted a lot. Really welcome view of if its true or not ? As would make me happier.

Thompson in practice yes but the whole point of boards is for investors to figure out if the market is right or wronh. Consnsus view seems to be fall over done

Fj excellent and clear explanation. RH i also questioned column C but with less precision than FJ.

For pre and post market cap and your superstition that the market has factored in £140 m!! Consider price evening before 1st sept statement re equity raise 13.61p market cap £152m. Market cap today £200m so yes market has factored in £140 but also bet saga is in a worse position now than it was then to the tune of £92m. That may be the case you could argue covid is worse but to me testing door to door chaufering the start of cruising and most importantly £140 securing the balance sheet means we are not worse off but better. I see key upsides as the £92 market cap being restored (45%) and the RdH average price paid £2.73 or 18.1 p old money (100%). I really beleive its a matter of when not if. My point is the market has clearly acknowledgad the capital raise but assigned signifacantly less than full value to the £140m whether thats worseing covid botched underwriting and overhang im not sure but this seems cheap and more importantly safe for an extended lock down to me. Really stong buy !

RH as Rupans says and you even note yourself you have ignored the £140m. Fair enough if it was trivial inconsequential or immaterial but not when its a game changer. Not quite sure how relevent it is but means you are overstaing column c. I think it is more meaninfull to look at market cap (irrespective of shares) against potential earnings. I seem to recolect £1.30 sp and £1.4bn market cap on £160m of earnings two years ago . So eps of 15p or share.or 11%. Lets say earnings 21/22 are £100m ( i think this is cautious provided cruises go well as we get insurance rebate lower claims). So using metric of 11% on earning to market cap = £6.42. The past is the past in terms of offers / dilution / rdh etc the only thing changing is we are more likely to survive. I might be glass half full but i think £6.42 is reasonable based on recovery and decent interims next summer.

I think its all acedemic and pretty abstract but if pre cosolidation Saga was worth 33p with 1122m shares £370m. All things equal the net assets are now £140m higher so its worth £510m but dilututed by more shares at 12p and rdhs average of 18.1p so 2100 shares divided by £510 = 24p a share. All acedemic completely. The 33p has been and gone and we were not privy to the conditional or speculative terms. This is a play on covid and imho a steal for newbies. Manged to masively average down but need 19.4p old money £2.92 to break even. That gets me back 21k a lot for me and i do think its doable as not much more than RdH needs £2.71 to break even

I must admit im feeling optomitic. Each ship has£40m ebit&d. That is based on 85% occupancy. That kicks in from first cruise. Two variables (1) can cruises opperate safely and from when (2) is the demand there to get to 85% and beyond ?
On point 2 pensioners have not suffered financially in the pandemic and have the cash. Sags ships are safer, i see pent up demand , saga being perceived as safe existing door to door chauferring etc . All of this a huge opportunity to hold prices and increase load factor. Any Rns demonstrating this pre year end will in my opinion see this at £3. Remember RdH put in £100m at average of £2.73 as a fire sale as they had allready spent circa £81m of advance tour revenues which they unexpectidly had to pay back. That has been and gone and tour is now ring fenced so wont impact foward valuations.

Fj i think there was one poster with the know how to work out from the booking site what proportion of cabins were sold. If we were at 60% occupancy for caneries and rising it would be a huge shot in the arm for sp. Anyone else recall the poster ?

Should read until they cruise cash burn is £6 - 8m and booked revenue is NIL. Sorry

Join i agree with you on one level advance bookings are great. Ring fencing means cash is at arms length and in the akin of an independent trust account ( even tour at one level) . The old ssap2 matching principle means revenue is booked from the point of providing the service that is the cruise. So until they cruise irrespective of deposits cash burn is £6-8m a month and booked revenue. Deposits though i agree are a fabulous foward indicator and if we can safely resume cruises will be a powerfull metric pushing this up. But they only come into play when the cruise happens. Weve all been misled by a slightly dubiuos policy on tour where they have not distiguished between opperating expenditure and deposits and spent them. This is presumably shown an accrual loselyin my words "borrowed deposits" This led to an £81m outflow in interims which they have now changed policy on.

Ironic crossing of posts jtd. Cruise is ring fenced allways has been. Tour changed this year see notes to cash flow statement in interim accounts.

Guys just double checking on old RNS,s. RDH put exactly £100m in. His holding of 36,855 555 is now worth circa £48m. I dont think anything has changed since that time no deteriation in fundimentals. The fact that he needs to reach 18.1p old money 278p new money to break even gives me real hope for the future. Im seriouly over exposed here with a breakeven of 19.4 /292 having completely missed the £80 on tour they have plugged this year as they had spent customer deposits in advance of tours and it unravelled as new bookings dried up. Thankfully one off hit and policy has changed for the future to ring fence. But fot this who knows they could have gone alone without RdH

Pianesta first class post. Glad you read the propectus there not the easiest