Member Info for Banburyboy

By 11am reported trades over 3.7m. Thats more than any whole day in the last few weeks. Presumably we have a whole new cohort with £3 averages which must put a floor of where we are now under the price ? Notwithstanding some disaster on the virus

Dropped like a stone to £2.80 now in auction. RNS We know no reason .....

Ive broke even after kitchen sinkong this at £1.27 - £1.40 so on my fourth can to celebrate.
Incredibly £1.35 close Nov 6th. £1.85 one week later close £1.85 Nov 13th any guesses this Friday ? All good things end so im saying £2.70 unless oxford publish in which case im in at £3.50 close friday . Brilliant few weeks.

£2.75 offered to sell RdH has broken even !

Dofus they have now i agree. But before RdH the group paid out £81m to tour customers and nil to cruise. See interims and cash flow statement.
I can only conclude cruise was ring fenced SAGA return deposits and nil impact on cashflow as not avaiable to company Tour not ringfenced SAGA had used deposits for working capital hence £81m cash outflow with covid as rougemale describes. I concer thats changed now. Does that make sense ? I agree they have done the right thing by customers by returning deposits but using tour deposits as working capital is the only reason RDH is here today at a low buy in and why we are all diluted. Glad RdH is here as he will ensure we are run properly moving forward !

Thanks roguemale. Intetesting as using deposits for working capital is exactly what dofus said they did not do in his day !! I wonder if he changed policy as a condition of his investment ? Ironic as Saga using deposits as w/c is what has given RdH the opportunity to buy back in at a song :)

Thanks rougemale. Interesting as dofus is suggesting Saga of old would not use deposits as working capital . Perhaps the change in policy to prohibit this was triggered by RdH. Pretty ironic as its exactly that advance use of deposits that has given RdH the opportunity to reinvest !!

Many thanks again dofus and welcome as you are new here going by posts. Really good to have the insiders knowledge that you are bringing.
I knew Titan was up for sale at 100-150m before covid. I had assumed post covid value was nil. I based this on the interims reducing travel goodwill to nil. That may be prudent and does sound like value.
I dont understand the tour deposits. The interim cash flow statement shows a group outflow of £81 (nil for cruise) and then specifically refers to ring fencing in future. A group outflow implies the cash was not restricted as does the stated change in policy. I wonder if this changed after you left or im just missing something ?

Dofus post of the month excelllent . Two questions
1. You say Titan has done well in covid can you expand ?
2. Cash flow in accounts £81m going out on tour suggests they were spending customer advanced before the holiday. They have now ring fenced it like cruise. Feels like really sharp practices. Did they do that in your day ?

I compared to Hastings sale using profit and customer metrics and 20 % discount and got £900m . Term debt takes £250m due 2024 i beleive . Which means travel currently negative £400 which is cash on hand less ship debt.
My long term value is £900m insurance. Cruise £40m per ship pbd&i at price earning of 5 = £400m. Similer to Rupins

Pianesta. Makes sense but that way. Shame ive wasted an hour or two working through it

Smorty agreed. The actual question way back was on the RdH take out price. Completely irrelevent but exercises my brain and fingers

Rupan hope your right might be a nice suprise in the finals come next April

Smorty pokerchips is pretty clued up and on 27th october helpfully answered my question on the takeover code. He posted a link and the code says RDH would have to offer all shareholders the highest price he paid for his holding not the average. His highest price was 27p for 224,400,000 old shares spending £60.6m. Converting these highest priced shares in isolation is 14.96m shares same cost £60.6m. Offer from RdH to all of us would have to exceed £4.05.

Smorty two schools on this and what is the reference point.
You and rox think its by reference to the average price paid including RI
Myself and bat are going for the headline highest rate paid which ignores Ri as that brought him a smaller portion of the company.
We will never know whose right and im not that sure !

Should add the interims recognised but did not quantify the covid bonus and indicated it would be used to reward customer loyalty. I was rather hoping shareholder loyalty might count . I don't think giving each of the Policy holders (of which I am one) £60 will in this day and age reap anywhere near the £30m of just keeping it. Maybe i'm too cynical !!

Hi Rupans a pretty crude piece of analysis i agree but
Admiral gave back £25 to every customer and LV between £20 and £50 for the first lockdown. I've bumped it up to £60 per customer for lockdown one and the latest one .
They have 1.6m policies motor and home - you could say 50 :50 but I've gone for a conservative 500k (they has 320k fixed rate motor in last years AR&A's). So £60 *500k = £30m. Crude I realise and could be refined but I think anywhere between £20- £50m none of which has yet been taken to profit and loss. Welcome your views

Rox not making anything up there all facts based on his shares and what he paid. See prospectus and rns. Welcome views of others Baburys simple touch or Roxs large table ? I think he would have to offer £4.05 but all very hypothetical.

Thanks Tomc
The company has got things wrong :
1 - spent £81m of tour deposits in advance of customers taking holidays. Thats in cash flow in interims. Without that i dont think we would have had a cash call and been a bigger bagger !
2. 2000 travel staff not on furlough !! That would cut cash burn from 6-8m a month to 3-4m and make combined co cash generative even with no cruises. Why not furlough
3. Covid lower claims bonus circa £30m based on customer no,s and other insurers stats. We are giving it back as a loyalty bonus £60 a customer ? Why most of our customers dont need it and are in the early years of a three year fix !!!.

You asked whats it worth lot more if we retain the £30m and furloughed but that decion is made by the company.

I did some comparative calculations on hastings and have insurance at £800m even with a 20% dicount. Cruise rwo ships £40m each before interest tax and depcetion on a conservative valuation of 5 = £400m.
So my back to normal valuation is £1.2bn so £8-9 a share ( four bagger) it was a eight bagger but dilution ensured survival but dashed my hopes off mega gains.
All now a play on covid 3 months of succesfull sailing and we are home and hosed.

Rdh paid £100m for 36,855 555 new shares. Thats fact and an anchor. He paid 2.71p new money average. He paid 27p for 224.4m old shares costing £60.6m. These converted to 14.96m of his new shares £4.05.

Having described it this way ive changed my mind (womans perogative) and i think offer has to be £4.05.