Advice given by Helpful a 10% holder in ALR on 19th August when SP was 0.155p30 Nov 2023 07:33
"Points to be taken from the RNS
"procuring of export licences, and establishment of sales channels"
This can only mean that ALR now intends to establish an Approved Processing Plant (APP).
The law in Zim now requires that miners only sell to an APP and only an APP can sell into the wider market, includng export.
Having an APP opens up new opportunities: the first one is buying supply from miners who don't have an APP and then taking a turn on selling the supply on; the second is that not having an APP means reduced revenues for a miner and it might be that they want to sell out; thirdly, some miners with licences not brought into production will to sell them on rather than go to the trouble of procuring and operating an APP; fourthly, it should reduce the illegal miners.
"a potential contract miner/partner has sent an experienced South African consultant geologist who from 10th to 14th August with ALR personnel conducted due diligence at ALR's locations in Zimbabwe."
1. As I have said, multiple sites not just one.
2. Why would a potential contract miner/partner go to the trouble of sending a senior geologist to look at our sites?
3. Why would Chinese agents want to talk about 5k tonnes pm of 2% spodumene? Surely that quantum is de minimis and not worth talking about?
4. Presumably, we wouldn't be in discussions if the "senior geologist" thought what we had was dross.
RRR has previously disclosed that NDAs (plural) had been signed with third parties. That was a while back; it appears that this potential partner is new. Could it be that RRR/ALR has something worth looking at?
Options:
1. Newco comes in and does the contract mining
2. Newco comes in does the contract mining and invests in ALR
3. Newco comes into a full JV, funds any CAPEX and operates the sites for ALR
Issues
So the plan is now multiple sites in production likely with Newco doing the contract mining maybe as a partner or maybe not with the product going for export.
What will the JV deal value ALR at? $10m/$20m/$30mil? How much will existing investors get diluted? Any deal gives a read across for the valuation of RRR's holding.
Maybe a good time to go back and reread the First Equity report about ALR? Maybe apply FEQ's modelling across the multiple sites instead of just one site.
I expect more announcements will result from the site visits in due course.
DYOR"