Member Info for Bamps21

Hi Obadhia, mossma
I appreciate the original economics were probably worked out at a higher WTI but from the Cerp presentation Innis would produce revenues of only $30 due to spt etc so there is not much wriggle room.
The original estimate for the pilot was $800,000 and a 30% saving has brought it down to $600k.
If the Herarra 2 zone is at my low estimate of reserves then the recoverable reserves will only just cover the $600k costs
Cerp will only gain if they buy it from us even at a lower sum, then that money used on Saffron where the fiscal regime will make us more profit than Innis.
Thechancer asked about a merger, I hope not, the Moroccan venture with Sound cost me, the sandstones can get very tight with a Darcy less than 1 and I would exit here if they did merge.
If there is a merger- I'm just throwing in for discussion "Echo" just a thought, that looks more Leo than Prd.

Today's oil price is $25.49
From Prd website Innis has 89m barrels of reserves they are saying that CO2 could retrieve 17%, so that's 15,130,000 barrels on the whole of Innis. The pilot area is targeting 10% of that =1,513,000 recoverable barrels less 10% that will not be retrieved = 1,361,700
This was from 5 zones in the Herarra sands, it was decided that Herarra 2 zone was the best for the injection of CO2, I have not found how much they are targeting.
I have in my notes the original pilot would have 90,000 recoverable barrels less 10% not retrievable but it looks like it maybe more than that from the above figures.
On today's price to get back their costs of $600,000 they would need $7.4 per barrel if there are 81,000 recoverable barrels or at a higher figure of say 200,000 they would need $3
$10 lifting costs and 22.5% taxes @ $5.74
At 81,000 barrels costs =$21.14
At200,000 barrels costs =$18.74

At the higher level there is only $6.65 per barrel profit to go towards the full pilot and if they have to pay Cerp 50%= $3.32

Is it viable I'm not convinced yet

Hi Nige
My view on the lockdown is it came in too late and should have been stricter with more rigorous testing to trace and isolate people.
The testing issue is complex, we have some of the best scientists but the industry is more geared to making drugs than test labs and kits and has been the governments Achilles heel.
Am I concerned about taking the risk of catching the virus, well at the moment yes. After hearing what those poor people have gone through the lockdown will prevent most of us catching it at this time.
Most viruses weaken over time and the longer it takes to catch it the better.

Not having a lockdown of any sort they have predicted 500,000 would lose their lives.
I doubt the housing industry would have had any chance of survival with those sorts of figures

Hi Nige
Hearing the stories of people who have had the virus and are now recovering, your remark "not worried about getting it" I feel is a little naive and insensitive .

As far as global warming is concerned the virus has stopped it instantly, the air outside smells so much fresher.

Hi troubles
I thought it was an April fool but it's on BAT Rns
ATB:))

They're all at it :))
BAT are developing a plant based vaccine using tobacco plants
BATM are developing a home test kit expected in 3-4 months

Hi LGO
I've reading Prd web site apparently if they start phase 2 the period when they can acquire Innis can be extended to September . I would expect the time will be lengthened anyway.
They do mention in an Rns that they're on the look out for an acquisition, are they going to offer less than the $4.2m, I would expect so.

Hi Taverham
I am unable to disagree with what you're saying but all the reading I've done lately on the vaccine is that the Australian trials really inconclusive and in the scientific world that's no good. The only drug that seems to be working is rendesvir, the one developed for Ebola, but it's not the vaccine it's helps the people infected to recover, unfortunately it is in short supply.
The vaccine is not a drug if you read N4pharma Rns they've developed a partial skin cell of the virus and sending it to labs for them to produce a vaccine .
Jennie Harries on the Daily briefing was asked about the Australian project and dismissed it and confirmed a vaccine would not be available this year
Any vaccine produced is not expected to work well on the older generation anyway as our immune systems get weaker with age
ATB:))

You are a bundle of fun in a crisis!

Morning all
The directors must think this is serious 30% reduction in salary, bonus cancelled, pay rise and pension rise cancelled.
Hsbc cancelled divi

From what I've heard about Sweden I believe they're in for an awful shock, they're trying something different.
Our method is to protect all ages, it doesn't just protect the old, look at those 2 young lads yesterday it's awful for everyone.
I've done a lot of reading lately on the tests, the main one here from Novacyt is claiming to be 100% successful in testing for over 1700 different types of coronavirus. There are 2 in the US that are reported to be only 90% successful, scientists are saying that isn't good enough and orders are now coming in to NCYT from the US. The chemicals involved are in huge demand and can't be made fast enough.
That is the antigen test , the antibody test to see if we've had it is still new and not 100% reliable yet but is very close to approval.
The vaccine in Australia has not been proven and is unreliable. There are scientists all over the world involved with producing a vaccine they are saying it will take 12-18 months to get in production.
The worry with the vaccine is , if the virus weakens over the Summer the financial pressures will turn elsewhere and the vaccine will not be produced as what happened with the SARS epidemic in 2003/4.

As for share investing it's very tough time, the HSBC cancelled divi is a blow to me, I need to sit down and decide is it worth continuing with divi shares and invest more into testing companies and gold while this crisis remains maybe 6-9 months.

All the best whatever you decide to do

What are the effects of low oil price on Saffron.
Taking a conservative sum $15 revenue per barrel.
Taking a production figure the same as what has been intimated at Innis of 350bopd would =$1,916,250 per annum less lifting and shipping costs.
That still looks good to me, why worry about Innis at these prices

I still believe Innis is not economical at these levels but I am not party to the information they have, so I can't say Prd are incorrect with their statements.

But let's look at what we've got -
90,000 recoverable reserves less 10% that will not be retrieved =81,000 divided by 350bopd = 231 days to deplete the reservoir
To pay back the $600,000 cost they need $7.4 over the 231 days at 350bopd
At $10 cost per barrel as they've stated gives $17.4, so as far as I can see there's little wriggle room.
Still believe it should be put on hold, till the crisis is over

Re Innis there are a few details I'm still unclear of.
How many barrels have Cerp been producing on the rest of Innis.
Is the $10 costs capped for Prd included in the $600k?
The reserves quoted for phase 1 are 90,000 barrels does this include the lower levels that have been shut off? With a cast iron plug it doesn't look like they will be reopened
From the Prd web site they are hoping for 350bopd with little tailing off, is there enough storage on site or will it piped to other fascility.
I'm not too sure of what phase 2 of the pilot is. I believe p1 is the injection into 4 wells and possibly p2 is the extraction from 2 wells and injection of the other 2.

At 350 bopd it won't take long to deplete this reserve.
I still believe the whole field is worth hanging on for but not at these prices

Closing a site can't be done immediately, any unfinished stock will have to be made weathertight, if it isn't it will lead to quality issues later

I just can't see $20 a barrel being economical for Innis, wish Prd would have explained why they think it is.
$20 less taxes less $10 costs leaves about $4-$5. That would take 435 days to pay back the $600,000 at 350 bopd.
435 x350 is more barrels than the estimated reserves of phase1 which is 90,000.
Why not put it on hold and keep to the planning and technical side for improvements later. That Rns doesn't feel right to me definitely nothing for Cerp at Innis.
Poor Update from Cerp but predictable

Hi troubles
Of course all the tenants are not like that I've met some really nice people in my time, but the bad ones stick in your mind.

Years ago the policy was to put the bad tenants in clusters , this created bad areas so this policy was changed to put trouble tenants in amongst good tenants to help make them conform but it had the reverse effect and brought those areas down.
Nowadays there are a few properties on every new estate and is still a problem.
ATB:))

Hi Tom
They seem to be waiting for news on that board re an antibody test, but I've not read anything on that yet. If they do get one out could be mega.
N4pharma have a product that laboratories are using for the antibody test, I've had a dabble in that and Ygen but Genedrive seem expensive
ATB:))

Hi Tom
Wierdest thing I ever saw was in a block of high rise flats in Brum before demolition.
This guy had covered his flat in turf, that's the floors, walls and ceilings - nailed down, the papers came and took photos
ATB:))

Hi Tom
Just saw you're other posts.
I looked at my account which has a lot of red in it and decided to start selling and I've just put it all in Novacyt who are making the tests in Camberley. Great Rns this morning shot the price up but orders piling in.
Out of 30 stocks I now down to 15 and may reduce further and top up Ygen,Ncyt,N4pharma and maybe more Ggp. I'm down to my last 7,000 Tw shares , I'm not sure what to do with them at present
Hard times, desperate measures
ATB:))

Hi Tom
I built a small HA site in Worcester, there were 19 inspectors from different official bodies. The houses ended up immaculate after all these inspections. Then the tenants moved in, the next morning I had a call about a wonky tap, when I went in I couldn't get to the sink cos of the stripped down motorcycle in the kitchen, oil all up the walls. Then a call for a gate not closing, well the guy had took all the fence and left the gate hanging to get his Morris Minor into the back garden.
Bit of an eye opener to how some people live
ATB:))