Member Info for Bamps21

I didn't think the Ncyt was as good as what could have been, and therefore I sold half of mine. You have to do what is right for yourselves and this market is very fluid at this moment in time.
I do a lot of research in to companies I invest in and i do share these with my chat friends on here.
My portfolio has been turned upside down in these troubled times and my 50-50 split between divi and Aim stocks has gone out the window. It is now Ggp 50%, Itm 10%, Ncyt 10% , Tw 5% Hsbc 5% Cerp 5% Lmp 5% rest in small stocks, but this changes rapidly on what's happening especially with the lack of divis

The way I read that Rns was that the drilling to confirm the ore body will start in July to the North West and at depth, geotechnical studies for the decline tunnel are continuing.
I'm still of the opinion that the decline portal is going to be somewhere in the SW to S of the ore. The tunnel could be over 3000m long just to get down to the top of the ore.
I'm fairly sure that the drilling lately is for the geotechnical studies, which at this moment they seem to have 3 options bulk mining or decline tunnel or both.
The studies should confirm which way.
Very impressive:))

Looks like the pre EWT works are advancing quickly
A revised STOIIP oil in place to be issued by end of H1
A development plan being produced
An EWT plan of action being progressed

The 2 slides on the presentation were not clear and no text to explain them.
One looks like a 3D of the existing wells and the other the seismic map of WNZ

Even though the Lower Cruse has been a problem drilling and we were expecting some news on flow rates, there have been a lot of positive answers
40 API
Enhanced future income
319' of gross pay
209' of net pay
16' of net pay in "open" shale meaning unhindered oil flow towards the well
Free carry on S2 and Q3 drill
Knowledge and experience to drill quicker and less expensive future wells
Minimal water
Possible pipeline out to sea, possibly paid for by a third party

Looking better overall:))

Wiki.seg.org explains it quite well

Hi LGO
The unconsolidated sand was the issue which meant they needed to use that heavy mud, which in turn had a high resistivity cos it couldn't migrate into the pours.
Oil saturated rock has a low resistivity which is why the log diagram the spikes go away from the logging tool. Water saturated rocks have a high resistivity although salt water has a low resistivity.
I will try and find a suitable web page

From the presentation they've published the logging data.
I'm no expert on logs , so I will describe my view
Logs are based on resistivity of rocks and their porosity
An oil soaked porous rock has a low resistivity where a water soaked rock has a high resistivity
On the first log table on the left you can see the line spiking to the right on the way down there are less spikes
The next table to the right shows the depth and then the next coloured ones indicate target zones and you can see the spikes in the Middle Cruse but none in the Lower Cruse.
Why is that? As far as I can understand it's all to do with the drilling fluids and mud, the logs pick up the resistivity of the fluids and mud in the pores. Using a very heavy mud has stopped that happening making the log results inconclusive
If you look to the right of the log sheet there are 2 columns in yellow and black and a third with water/oil, these are the fluid and mud logs . The water cut is shown spiking to the left in the MC

I hope that comes over as clear as mud :))

Hi LGO
One of the mitigating factors on the Lower Cruse was the casing and cementing.
From the geology there are 3 shale band traps separating the 3 layers in between is unconsolidated beach sands making the drill unstable. From the Feb presentation Leo talked about not being able to log the well due to unstable condition of the well, from yesterday's a 7" sleeve had been inserted but could not be cemented.
Grouting is important as oil would migrate uncontrollably up the outside of the liner .
It's like pushing a straw into wet sand.
The use of a very heavy drilling mud , nearly rock had to be used.

They seem now to have the experience to drill S2 with more confidence of success, more quickly and cheaper than S1

In the last presentation they were unsure of water in the LC but have now confirmed minimal water contact.
ATB:))

Hi LGO
Was like the good old days yesterday, suppose it will be back to normal today.
I slipped up yesterday and letting those 2 get a foot in, apologies, I'm blaming the phone it keeps putting words in that I haven't written:((

It looks as though they have plans to manage the high water cut, the pressures will eventually drop, enabling just the oil with a smaller amount of water produced.
Plans to pump produced water back in to keep pressure in the reservoirs will be able to get at more of the reservoir.

Normal oil extraction can get upto 20% of the reservoir
Water EOR a further 18%
CO2 a further 17%

One of the plans could be CO2 yes another joint venture with Predator. CO2 works well with a high water cut.
60 wells planned someone's been busy, I'm expecting next year to be busy, with maybe more than one jv on the Middle Cruse.
The reason for my thinking is a 10 year programme no good drilling in the tenth year. All these wells need drilling in the first few years.
Even at 25 barrels that's 1500 per day but that's at the moment when the other measures I've mentioned are in place I'm still optimistic of 50-100 per day or 3000 to 6,000 in total . At an average low of $20 price that's $60,000-$120,000 per day for 10 years.
All that from zone 2 and they still haven't tested 1 and 3 zones yet

The LC is still the prize, one of the tests had minimal water and 40 API, it's a shame no flow tests could be given. The plans for the new S2 are exciting a free carry and will be an easier well as it's been derisked, they know the targets , only 16' tested with another 192' of net sands still to tested
11.5m recoverable barrels is huge

ATB:))

Is that all you 2 can be negative about, this is bonus that was not clear on the surveys. Any amount of oil is a bonus from the Middle Cruse and with a planned 60 wells to come that's a real bonus.
Some of those wells will be for water reinjection to keep the pressures up

Hi Ross
Your back as positive as ever although you are quite right this time, pardon the slip, but you will find from my posts that I have always maintained an estimated figure of 50-100 bopd from the Middle Cruse which I got some stick for.
You must be over the moon on today's news not!

Hi oil analyst
The pressures are high, the oil is sand free, further testing planned of zone 6.
It looks like the Lower Cruse will not provide much in the way of data as they could not grout behind the liner.
Saffron 1 will eventually be a Middle Cruse producing well and Saffron 2 will be solely for LC
They have quoted pressures for both but the MC has flowed at 500bopd but not at what stage

That's twice I've read about Saffron being over budget this morning.
That's very misleading
The original budget of $600k was for a small diameter pilot well, after 457' with the oil shows and pressures it was changed to a production well with a 12" sleeve apparently for sand maintenance equipment and the costs rose to $2m. I'm surprised it wasn't more and more testing will increase that cost.

My calculations for Nav share price on $15 is still around the 2.3p for Saffron on these confirmed figures, at $25 its 2.7p
Anything below is undervalued as it doesn't include the rest of the assets.

Good to see capex for Suriname is secure and an EWT is planned to go ahead and new figures are for oil in will be issued.

Leo didn't mention the 400m target but he did say that some of the other 12 targets of 20-400m are shallower than Saffron.
He also mentioned that none of the other wells at Bonasse had gone below 2,000' and there is potential there.
We have 2 difficult quarters ahead but we seem to have turned the corner.
On the Middle Cruse chart $150k capex spend this year with a cash flow of nearly $300k next year.
I must admit surprise at the 500bopd on the MC but still think it will settle down to c100
ATB:))

Hi LGO
That news was better, lot to take in.
The capex and income charts look very encouraging, I suggest take a good look and compare it with the last one.
Capex lower big cash flow from year 3.
Drilling Saffron 2 this year is fantastic result (depending on oil price)
The reason for that I believe is that below 3500' to TD they had to put a 7" liner in and unable to grout it meaning testing was limited as oil and gas will migrate around the outside of the liner.
In my opinion Saffron 1 will be solely for more testing and then production from the Middle Cruse.
S2 will be solely for the LC so the farm in is only for S2 at the moment as drilling rigs (that's RIGS) for the MC are being sourced.
Larger tanks are being sourced to deal with the water separation.
Gas separator required, I believe Gordon said that they had one at Goudron they could use
40' API oil fantastic premium price
11.5m confirmed recoverable resource for the LC
Plans for 60 wells in the MC in 4-6 clusters each producing 48,000 barrels that's about 3m recoverable asset making 14.5m total.
On the video talk of putting a buoy out at sea for tankers to dock, maybe paid for by oil traders.

Andrew did make a gaff "heavier oil rises".
MC has 17-20 API
LC has 40 API
But they're 2 separate oils the light oil from the MC has risen to the UC or surface and evaporated.
I'm glad he mentioned the news blackout

The MC does have a high water cut and that will have to be managed which seems to be in their plans.
On the logging chart there are water shows further down
Overall I'm happier than I was

What does that remark supposed to mean " a deep expansive drill for the whole region"
Saffron is probably unique in the SWP with the uplift caused by the nearby mud volcano, there's probably nothing like it on the rest of the peninsula.
The uplift has caused the Lower Cruse to be a lot higher than anywhere else, so no it's not a deep expansive drill and the only thing for Cerp akin to the rest of the SWP is the experience of drilling through multiple layers.
Deep drills on the SWP can be 14,000' or more.
Icacos has the multi stacked shallower wells, this is where the experience will come in useful.
Expect to hear a lot about the experience.

You need to calm your expectations down a bit , most of us are in the middle ground of realism, I wish you were

Hi cdl, Newboy
I've been in and out several times with Odx, out at the moment though, trying to take stock , however Ggp is so big for prospects I don't need to look elsewhere yet at the moment bought in at 0.6 and top sliced at 1.5 , bought lot more at 2.2 now nearly 9p and could easily treble again. For Tw to equal that it would have to go £9-£27 so you can see why some on here have invested but whether it is high at the moment I'm unsure.
This crisis is totally different from 2008 there were no exciting investments they all went down and afterwards all had rights issues . Tw went from 4p to £1 in no time but I can't see it rising 25x like last time, I believe it will get back to £2 at some point soon
Just my view point
ATB:))

Hi Chesh
I've not heard from Peter for a fortnight and I am concerned so I hope his son will contact me

That last statement of yours is a bit below the belt to a lot of us who have seen there investment eroded time after time

Hi Chesh
There's a lot of electrics in the logging tools :))
Yes Ubot 1 produced 200bopd and I would expect something similar but the geological make up is more complex 3 horizons plus possibly 2 more and maybe water which we don't want. We need to hear the term dry oil (no water)
Stick to the day job :))

Hi Obadhia
What could we expect from the Upper and Middle Cruse
If you look at the cross section from the October presentation you can see the other wells close to Saffron, on these you can see oil produced to date from certain levels
Middle Cruse
Bon 8 = 30mbbls barrels produced
Ubot 3= 35mbbls barrels produced
Bon 2 = 10 mbbls barrels produced

Upper Cruse
Bon2 = 12 mbbls barrels produced
(mbbls = thousand)

These are old wells
There all still producing
oil is still migrating towards them

The combined recoverable reserves could be 2-3m in my opinion

ATB:))