Member Info for Bamps21

Hi Obadhia
I didn't include the contingent assets cos its only a resale estimate which is hard to work out for my old brain:))
The only figures we have for Suriname is the 24m barrels stoiip which is probably smaller than the MC but looking at the last Suriname images it does look larger than that figure although it's a bit blurred. Let's hope the existing wells can be worked over to reduce capex but they must be confident saying they will drill one well this year, must have found something. Perhaps the 3.5p can be added on when they issue revised stoiip in the summer.
The refinery/storage is very close so lower capex.
ATB:))

Looking back at last October presentation which breaks down Finncap 's target price there's a few things that will change it.
1 there is about 10% more shares in issue (I've not checked figures)
2 Saffron is through it's risked period and now into its unrisked, when the CPR and production starts it will be through this period
3 lower oil prices
4 covid crisis
5 Saffron reserves have increased
LC from 10m to 11.5m
MC zone 2 = 0 to 3m
Zones 3,4 &1 could be another 5m
This adds up to nearly a 20m target.

On the chart it has 4.9p for core assets so I'm estimating that should be between 3.5-4p
Ignoring contingent assets
Saffron risked and unrisked =7.3p I'm estimating 6p but their 20m asset further on is 13.8p so reduces to about 12p
I'm estimating a target price of 15-16p when Saffron has completed testing and full reserves and flow rates are known plus production in progress without Suriname . I've not allowed for lower oil prices so target may reduce 12 to 13p
Less 10% for ramping still way undervalued:)))

Hi Chesh
Yes!
:))))

Hi Mr M
You must have written that report:))

That price has come from the NPV10 value of $90.3m which works out at 8.1p
It won't start until CPR report has confirmed reserves and production can start. Before that is going to happen Suriname NPV should be around
Good luck all

Hi Nige
I'm holding back from putting more into the Ftse, coming out of lockdown is going to be a very bumpy road and I am looking at stocks very carefully.
I believe builders will be struggling for materials, imported goods will be hit and miss. I'm going to wait and see how it pans out.
With the news yesterday of accelerating infrastructure spending the likes of Galliford and Costains are ones which I'm dabbling in.
I have great hopes for my oil play but not for a few months Nav on that asset is about 30p
Until divis are restored Tw and other builders are just growth stocks but there could be bonus surprises to shareholders if they come out of this well
ATB:))

Hi Bully
I agree but there's no value without the capabilities and the 8p will come when production and infrastructure are in place

Also I believe a rerate is due when the assets increase maybe more than once in the next 6 months with the Lower Cruse, Middle Cruse and Suriname
ATB:))

Mr M
The 8p can only happen after an independent report CPR is issued covering such things as assets, adequate infrastructure to cope with flow rates, adequate finances to lift the oil and a market to sell it.
If 1,000bopd are produced and only 400bopd storage is available then 1,000 can't be produced and will effect the NPV value reducing the share price.
Hope that comes over as clear as mud :)))

I personally feel the real news on Saffron is still to come.
The Lower Cruse has estimated oil in place in line with company expectations of 77m. When this is confirmed it will propel the Nav value to around 30p, which is not to say it will get to that price but indicate how undervalued it is .
The Middle Cruse has not been given any figures yet for oil in place, so that's still to come.
Being 2 standalone developments mean extra costs to the landowners Singh Estates
Rental income of $70k pa but varies with price of oil
Royalties half yearly stepped payments , first 2 years free from start of production then 10% years 3-8 then 12.5% of gross production
Drilling bonus $15k on spud of first 3 deep wells
Development bonus of $30k on approval of each development plan
Whatever we are paying it's better than anywhere else and at Icacos or Cedros any development over 10m barrels BOLT royalties kick in 3% capped at $1.25m

Hi Nige
I've increased my holding in TW but only a little.
Have you seen the video at the top of this page very good NPV10 =90.3m sp should be 8p high risk but there is a 400m asset waiting. My last oil play, hydrogen taking over
ATB:))

Hi joatmon
I suggest you read the latest RNS and presentation and listen to the 2 videos .
Plans are in place to deal with the water issue in zone 2 of the Middle Cruse.
Testing is continuing on zones 3,4 &1
No water problem is mentioned in the high quality oil of the Lower Cruse.

Suriname is an unknown apart from 24m of stoiip but a lot of opportunities on a small field. The oil is in pockets migrated from deep down and trapped. It's not in formation layers like the huge finds at sea, it's a different aged oil.
I'm not getting excited by it until any news is published, 24m of reserves it is at present or 2.4m recoverable, a small field.
Now the 400m target I'm itching to know where that is. My bet is under Columbus Beach :))

Mr M
8.1p

The operations page on the company web site explains what we have.
Suriname maybe as big as Saffron field this news due around June but the South west peninsula has 12 targets 20m-400m barrels so $300m of assets will be on the low side.
NPV 10 is projected cash flow and capex with a discounted rate for the ten year period showing expected profit. They would have taken an average projected oil price over that period.
The Lind and contractors have kept a lid on the share price but not as much as with Schroders selling out and still got about 10% putting great pressure on Leo to perform
ATB:))

Hi Bully
I have posted twice today on this subject, have a scroll back
ATB:))

Hi Tiburn
Without consolidation 3 years ago we would be approaching 20bn shares a very touchy subject.
For me my first buy was 0.6p then another at .47 sounds good until you x by 20 :((
Without consolidation we wouldn't have Leo a tradeable bargain.
He seems a lot happier now than in December when we had a news blackout
ATB:))

Hi neon
I'm expecting some surprises this year to mitigate dilution.
Forward selling of oil.
Pipeline partner and fascility for sea shipping
Rig Partner for part of Middle Cruse to ramp up production
Rig partner for another LC drill
Heritage to supply tanks maybe with pipeline

There are loads of scenarios let's hope one of them is not dilution
ATB:))

Will there be any more dilution?
In the next 12 months yes , contractors shares, Board shares, Lind shares.
Is there anything to offset this- yes
Production S2 assuming 500bopd at WTI $35 ( they won't start till that price) revenue =$31.5 =$15,750pd =169 days to pay back the contractors at 75% per day with Cerp earning $4000pd then reversed.
Start of the Middle Cruse production 50bopd my estimates

$4.2m from Predator for Innis is a possible

Suriname workovers or new drill unknown quantities

Possibly production from South Erin

Hi Obadhia
I think it's good that the CO2 project seems to be working for PRD but as far as Cerp are concerned with it I just can't see any positives in it unless Prd stump up the 4.2m to purchase it. That figure would double the amount of Prd shares in a placing to over 400m.
Innis is too small for a 50-50 split if there is no sale and the fact that the new CPR has now given a lower resource for the field.
I'm presuming that's just the pilot field,
By the time the CO2 costs are repaid there will be no revenue for Cerp from the pilot.
The pilot is only on 1 zone out of 5 and have blocked off the lower zones with cast iron plugs ,so they won't be re-entered.

I'm really hoping they come up with the price, Saffron has much better fiscal terms and that would really get it moving, no point wasting time on Innis and get our out.
Glad I'm not involved with Prd very risky in my opinion with that placing coming

Comparing the Oct presentation with last weeks, the capex plans for the next few years have totally changed.
October:-
2020 $8.5m
2021 $12.5m
2022 $27.5m
2023 $25m
2024 $15m

Last weeks
2020 $4.5m
2021 $8.5m
2022 $10m
2023 $18.5m
2024 $14m

This is a huge decrease in planned spending.
Last weeks presentation shows no allowances for pipe line spending and very little for the Middle Cruse.

I've loads of questions now:-
Is Heritage or another taking over the pipeline infrastructure.?
Is there going to be a partner on the Middle Cruse ?
If S2 flow rates are huge 3150bopd this would mean only one well required so what flows is the capex based on?
If only one or two wells are required how much will the capex be reduced by?

To me this well looks more and more valuable:))))

For 10 years of production of 11.5m barrels a flow rate of 3150bopd will be required.
The flow rate for S2 will determine the development plans for the Saffron field.
If it produces 500bopd then 6 wells will be needed and associated storage etc
They could keep the 2 zones 5 and 6 separate for different wells