Member Info for Bamps21

Hi joatmon
Leo has stated they're after an uplift in the sales price for the Lower Cruse, so that's one reason for not mixing the other issue with the Middle Cruse is the high water content. A large tank will be needed for water separation and plans are in hand to reduce that content.
Operational issues getting through the fault into the Lower Cruse a very heavy drilling mud was used nearly rock. Cement grout could not be used on the outside of the casing due to the mud problem, so the answer to your question is there is no flow rates for the Lower Cruse and S2 has been planned for the Autumn
ATB:))

I've just read the presentation again it's not $3-5m it's $350,000-$520,000 85% over6 Years
NPV should be $21m to $31m based on WTI $45 and 48,000 per well and 60 wells
I thought $3-5m was too high

Which ones going to be more valuable
Lower Cruse NPV 10 is $90.3m
Middle Cruse NPV 10 is :-
$3-5m per well
4 to 6 clusters upto 60 wells including possibly 5 water injectors
That's $3m x 55 = $165m
Or $5m x 55 = $275m

Those figures look very high but that's what he said.
I was quite happy with 3-5m and then he paused and said oh that's per well, I nearly dropped my phone in my tea :))))
I hope Gordon doesn't give him a smack on the wrist :)))

I found Peter's house he's fine, what a relief
Changed his e mail :))

So Bonasse wells are sat on the other side of the fault to the Lower Cruse and are in a different zone of oil to the LC and MC. Couldn't quite work out from what he said but they have targeted the LC as well but the drillers couldn't get through the fault zone.
After all this time of waiting was it worth it, yes I think so :)))))

Hi Chesh
That made me smile,
Did I hear Leo right an NPV of $3-5m per well in the Middle Cruse gulp, the plans are for 60 that's $165m NPV. That can't be right surely that's 16.5p per share on top of 9p for LC. Seems round the wrong way
:))))))

Hi Lancygeo
Thanks I will if I get the opportunity.

A good interview on the Lse just been posted
ATB:))

Hi Ben
They've always been in a mess since 1930. Last year 53% inflation.
Most stable country down there is Uruguay about 7%.
They will get in a more mess with Bitcoin.

Instead of invading the Falklands they should have gone in partnership with us to develop the oilfields, they would have had a lot of spin off industries instead of a mess.
ATB:))

Hi LTID
Any news?

Hi LGO
Slide 11 bottom right, second point.
It clearly says fast track full development-circa $ 3m.
The Lower Cruse will be a separate development to the Middle Cruse, I think $3m is just the start of a capex spend for a full development when the plan is finalised with this next drill.
We already know some of the development plans for the MC which seems quite radical
ATB:))

Leo's comments from the RNS
"We have found what we were looking for-
Oil in both the Lower Cruse and Middle Cruse. These are 2 standalone valuable oil discoveries "
The $3m for S2 is not just the cost of the well it's for the start of the development, it's a different grade of oil to the MC and will need to be kept separate due to an uplift in sales price, therefore more tanks are required. Also mentioned about gas separation,so a gas separator is required and possible storage.
They are progressing with standalone development plans for the MC and LC for ministerial approval.
I believe they have approval though for another appraisal well but don't quote me on that.
With Ubot 1 well producing 20-25api oil and migrating toward Saffron I was expecting a lighter oil but not as good as 40. In time I would expect the api to decrease as the heavier oils move towards S2

Hi Obadhia
Peter is great fun , he really enjoyed meeting me and my group of friends in the pub, we were looking forward to meeting up again.
He described his house to me and I had a walk round couldn't recognised it though.
Unfortunately I didn't get his phone number, he had mine though.
I hope he is ok, he said he was fit and well but a little down and liked receiving my daily views

Will Saffron assets hit 20m recoverable barrels?
Known
Zone 2 about 3m barrels targeted
Zone 5 and 6 Cerp confirmed 11.5 m barrels
Unknown
Zone 1 my estimates 1.5m
Zone 3 my estimates 2m
Zone 4 my estimates 2m
Total 20m
They've started on zone 2 so I'm expecting that to be the best
Zone 3 and 4 I'm expecting there to be a high water cut but if not my estimates should seem very conservative.

Why the emphasis on 20m, well that's the size a major would normally move in on but not probably in this crisis and not before an independent CPR report.

Working a Nav out for say 6 months time at WTI $45 with added costs for MC drill and tank infrastructure etc of say $2m I'm taking a figure of liabilities of $12m
20m x $37 revenue minus liabilities $12m divided by numbers of shares (say 1bn) = an asset of 73p.
I doubt we will ever get to that figure but should certainly lift the share price to a better position if everything gets back to normal
Working on an oil in the ground price of a low $3 = 5p per share
The 88m of NPV10 = nearly 9p

What ever figures are used there is a huge potential increase in the current market.
I'm not ramping it but just saying what I see and firmly sat on my hands at the moment a bit like the company is doing but always looking for an opportunity
ATB:))

Hi Manin
It use to be the case with Tw of slow and steady growth but with the use of special divis annual wild swings started. I've posted on here many times before that quarterly divis would steady the price.
I have been nervous of the special divi and how they will end them, well now we've all seen what's happened a huge fall due to an external factor.
I personally hope they don't bring them back and introduce the quarterly'.
Look at the property sector Segro, London Metric 2 solid companies both still paying divis and sp more resilient, LMP paying a steady quarterly, both into logistics sheds for internet companies.
Timing for me with a Tw purchase is them repaying a dividend I'm sure it will rebound.
As for investing in Aim for a novice is to keep to small amounts, look for sectors that have a future.
I don't particularly like making money from others misfortune and have given some away, but I saw the possibility of protecting my portfolio and took it.
Ggp has it's ups and downs but generally in last 3 years it's gone up from my initial buy of 0.6p and it still has tremendous prospects.
The future companies will be different to today's, I'm always looking for the next Croda £1.40 to £50 and my hopes are with Itm a young hydrogen company, big big prospects with the only way to combat climate change apart from this virus.
Good luck with the future investing.

Mr M I think you will be back before then.
Just think about what's happening at the moment:-
Tests still happening
Test layer 3 Middle Cruse
Test layer 4 MC/LC? I'm not sure which
Test layer 1 UC/MC?
Testing testing testing:))
MC rig contracts

Suriname report on Stoiip quantities
EWT plans

Goudron license confirmation
Water flood plans

Maybe news on CO2 but not expecting it

I can't see them holding back on the test results no point now to keep us in the dark
Good luck all and keep safe
Ps
I'm still very worried about Peter not heard anything for a month from getting an e mail everyday to nothing.

Hi Razorman
Yes Trump will get his own back on the Saudi Prince for destroying the shale industry.
The vaccine situation is interesting that scientist from Oxford University seemed quietly confident of success but nothing is guaranteed and whether they rush it through remains to be seen.
Trinidad as an island seems to have contained the virus and should start to ease the lock down.
Testing and tracing is the key as South Korea has reported no new cases yesterday.
Should be easy to do on Trinidad.

The entrepreneurs of Trinidad have found a new use for their tankers, filling the tanks with cocaine :))
The police have ripped the tanker apart, that's another tanker out of action :))

Owning Newcrest shares after a takeover is not an option for everyone who has these shares in ISA's . Australian shares can't be held in these accounts I hope they don't go down that route we will have no control

From what I've been reading lately here is my opinion of what might happen with the oil price.
Oil traders at this moment are scrambling to buy oil for June/ July deliveries to make the most of the cheap prices especially to the Far East. China is already ramping up production in its refineries.
28 Saudi tankers are heading for the States, Trump has remarked "if they want to give it to us for nothing then bring it on over". There's not much storage left and the refineries are at low capacity, so the oil will stay in the tankers.
In Asia one of their largest oil traders has gone bust, they own a fleet of tankers with most of the crews laid off.
Russia is hurting bad with these prices and reports that Arctic exploration may never recover.
The North Sea is going to take a big hit in the coming months as it becomes unviable.
The US shale industry has already taken a big hit and may never recover lost production.
With the world returning to work consumption will rise but probably at a lower demand than before the crisis .
The futures market will see an exponential rise in prices , some analysts are predicting $100 will return.
Well Cerp are still here and planning a new drill into the Lower Cruse in Q3 and also are out looking for suitable rig to start the Middle Cruse probably early next year.
The news this week they have been planning these works at around $45 prices, that suggests to me that Cerp have been talking to analysts and this is where they see the price heading.
A good result from S2 and production from S1 could mean the first cluster on the Middle Cruse start of next year.
By a cluster this could be an octopus well where 8 drills at 30 degrees to the vertical are drilled from the same spot.
2021 could be a big year for Cerp especially if joint ventures eliminate the need for the contractors share issues.

ATB:))

Oxford University has produced a report on countries readiness to remove the lockdowns.
They have produced 6 criteria for the lockdown to end
T&T have met the criteria on points 2,4&6
and are second only to Vietnam in their preparedness
The T&T government have welcomed the report but saying the testing levels are not adequate at the moment to give them comfort of beating the virus.

Testing,testing, testing sounds like the Saffron well:))

Hi Tom
There's still a lot of headroom for Ncyt especially with that new test. I didn't think the news was as exciting as they could have made it. Too many T20 traders for my liking, looks like Ggp is starting to acquire them, but the prospects are too good they will probably loose out.
I bought some more in the mid 8s this morning probably my last top up.
ATB:))