Member Info for Bamps21

Hi strudel
I don't know about coffee mornings I'm more worried about the other half of the pubs I use closing, the other half still closed with the floods
ATB:))

Hi Nige
I agree with your that the imbalance will remain but there are huge differences between us about the demand.
If a potential buyer can see their finances are uncertain and are at risk will they really take on a mortgage or will they be able to get one.
I've seen some recessions in my time the one in 1981 was dire but man made this situation is indeterminable.
4 months self isolation I will go nuts :((

Ben I hope you can get back ok
Best of luck everyone

I've been reading Angus Rns from 5 March regarding their gas find and how the assets have been assigned to 1P 2P 3P reserves. They've priced up NPV figures of £25m based on $42bopd with low to high case share price of 2.9p to 6.1p current sp 0.7
Saffron has an estimated NPV of 88m so the reserve report is vital to Cerp

All depends what happens with the Market now, is a very precarious time for everyone and I hope everyone here gets through it ok
Best of luck

Hi Ben
If you're arriving via Zurich looks ok.
There is a ban going the other way to the States from Monday night
Good luck :))

I have to agree with LLL that the silence from the company isn't good and started just before Schroders started selling, but the silence about the testing is hopefully positive.
LLL though has no "+" key on his keyboard so I will never expect anything bar negatives.
There are many reasons to think of the silence as a positive, if it were a duster/disaster as spouted then they are obliged under Aim rules to announce it as it would materially effect the share price.
What we do know is that there are 3 small net plays/ horizons with other net plays in between in the Lower Cruse.
This is not the old LGO, Cerp are taking it very carefully and from the bottom layers drill string would have been sent down and holes blasted into the casing. If the oil does flow an initial flow rate will fall back, a choke size determined . That flow rate maybe held for a week or whatever and shut in for a pressure rebuild.
There being careful not to get water into the mix which will take time through the settlement tank. Dry oil is what they're looking for.
The next section will be separated from the lower section before testing.
The large section below the horizons maybe tested after each horizon.

This is all about keeping the water out of the oil, it's going to take a lot of time, so long as dry oil happens .
Forget about 2000bopd that's just daft

My figures tried to show that Cerp can survive in these troubled times.
At the end I put in a caveat that Saffron might produce more,what, I don't know but certainly not like anything like the figures your spouting.
It sounds like you are going to be very disappointed, this is definitely NOT a disaster that's a daft thing to say when I just showed that it isn't.
Where are your figures to justify a disaster!!!!!!!!

There are 4 x 400 tanks at Saffron, if one is used as a settlement tank that would leave 1200 barrels for storage.
At 250bopd this would fill these tanks in a 5 day week
A large road tanker can hold 275 barrels, so one tanker a day for 5 days and possibly an additional one on a Monday.
That's $6875 per load revenue less costs

2000bopd is not feasible with these amount of tanks especially at weekends , you would be looking at about a dozen tankers a day and the installation of possibly 2 x 5000 barrel tanks ( which is possibly in future plans for Saffron)

This is getting very muddled, to make it clear one well will not produce continuously 2000bopd for 10 years, your figures are way over the top and not conservative.
11.5m barrels of recoverable reserves are in the Lower Cruse, this may take upto 10 wells to get it out. You have to average the 10 years production, the early years will be higher and tailing off so 250bopd is a sensible average.
Taking out 2000bopd would probably damage the integrity of the well.
The Middle Cruse is a different oil reserve which wasn't clear on the original reserve estimate and may need separate wells to get that out and may not produce from the present well

In summary the present well may produce 200bopd from the Lower Cruse and 50bopd from the MC which may not produce at this time. 200 is still commercial at these low WTI levels.
The present well can not produce all the 11.5m barrels on it's own.
Expect other wells to be drilled into the Middle and Upper Cruse in the near future, which is the cheaper option. Further wells into the Lower Cruse will be sometime away when finances allow
That's my take on it anyway

Harel how many wells are on Goudron, over 100
How many are on Bonasse at least 10
How many are on Innis at least 10
Your argument is completely daft of course it will take more wells, 250bopd is commercial even with revenues down to $25.
If you look on the presentation they were planning to spend $5-6m this year $15 next $25m the next 2, what do you think they were going to spend that on and last for 10 years
10 years =3650 days so 11.5m reserves would be 3150bopd
Do some research please!

Hi Harel
I don't believe you understand the geology of Trinidad at all. A steady rate of 2000bopd on land is unheard of. I don't believe the 4 tanks in that photo will hold more than 1600 and that includes one being for separation.
Your aspirations are too high.
I don't know where you get $1m profit from, as I've told you before Bonasse is the best fiscal license Cerp have and if the WTI gets back to $60 then Cerp would be having $50 revenue giving $4.6m so payback would have been in one year. Unfortunately we are all in difficult times and if Saffron does produce 250bopd it will keep Cerp afloat till the prices improve.
Far more wells will be required on Saffron to get at the 11.5m barrels recoverable.
One well will not retrieve that amount.

Hi Obadhia
The capex chart on the presentation indicated $5m -$6m . To me that's not feesible in this market.
Once the testing is finished they can decide on what pump to use and connect the well to a settlement tank.
Daily truck shipments
The costs for testing could still be very high as I'm expecting the consultants are still involved.
What costs will be swapped for shares I don't know.
Will there be more than 250 bopd I'm in no position to say but if the Lower Cruse is problematic then the Middle Cruse probably won't get to that figure on it's own.
If the Lower Cruse comes in at 2000bopd I will be gob smacked but can't see that happening and don't where that figure could ever have come from.
I think though another well for the Middle Cruse will be drilled this year leaving that deep well just for the Lower Cruse
That's only my opinion though

Hi Ben
I will offer 50p for your Glencore shares :))
Not selling my GGP shares though :))
ATB:))

Hi BTET
If you are on about the special divi, my feelings are that TW will be watching the situation with the virus very closely.
I've always been concerned about special divis they can be taken away, I would always preferred a lower quarterly divi.
Berkeley have cancelled their cash back to shareholders but PSN have paid their special, who knows what will happen in the next few months but our health is more important than the divi at this moment
ATB:))

I agree with Nige that post was rude and uncalled for. Too many people are eager to have a dig at others with no reasoned arguments.
We are in an unprecedented period at the moment and we should be helping each other .

WTI =$31.73
On $30 Bonasse revenues would be around $25
My guesstimate for Saffron of 200 for Lower Cruse and 50 Middle Cruse, total of 250
250x25 =$2.3m per annum
Basing the rest of the company without CO2 project around 300bopd at about $20 =$2.2m per annum
Total revenues $4.5m

Liabilities from last September figures
Admin $1.5m
Management salaries (50%) $0.25m
Capex and workovers $0.65m
Lind repayments at 75k pm =$0.9m
Total $3.3m

$4.5m - $3.3m =$1.2m for taxes, Spain and other expenditure
Capex should be there for Suriname

Saffron could be more bopd
CO2 might continue
Goudron and others might be more than 300bopd
Expenditure from September may have increased
$30 WTI is not the shut up shop price

I think the placing should have been postponed with the collapse of the market. I want to take up the offer but it's a bit too high. If I buy on the open market then the company doesn't benefit

I've been watching Gilead Sciences not on London stocks but they've developed a drug Remdisvir for Ebola and now trialling it on c-19. They've sent batches to China , results due in April, early results though inconclusive with about 50% responding to it in China and France.

Start of a good sign anyway
Keep smiling:))

Hi Ben
I got out before the split.
Construction boost by the budget must be in doubt not just because of the virus. Most of our construction infrastructure firms are financially weak and will be unable to finance large projects.
We could get foreign firms in but we don't want immigrants anymore.
We could get retired workers back to work, oh no not me what about my afternoon nap :))

Hi Offerman
Of course they are expecting oil at Saffron but at that time it was at $60 per barrel not $30, whether this crisis only lasts a few months only time will tell.
If they would let people know what the plans are would be better than the mushroom system at present
I don't believe there is anyone better out their than LK so I don't begrudge them being paid well but the PR has been appalling this last 6 months.
The 12m shares LK received is a sign of confidence but dilution paid for them. When are the 4 or 5 of the team going to buy on the open market. Now is a very good time to do so as it would instill huge confidence
ATB:))

I hope the Cerp rig is no longer on Innis and is doing workovers on Bonasse it's the only place now worthwhile.
The CO2 project might work but is certainly not economical at these oil levels, I would like to be proved wrong on that but don't think so. Probably get shut in for a while.
WTI now $33.93 up 9% what would this mean for Innis
350 bopd $20-$25 say $22.5 revenue less $10 costs =$30,625pw or 26 weeks for Prd to recoup expenditure then $15,312pw each thereafter
Is it worth it?