Member Info for Bamps21

Hi troubles
As an example a 5 bedroom house was sold on a site in Worcester and HA had a few properties behind. An old car suddenly appeared in the back garden of one. Bearing in mind back gardens are not too big these days.
The 5 bedroom owner immediately put it on the market for £70k less than they paid, with the sales office still trying to sell others at the higher price. The housebuilders had to buy it back.
ATB:))

Hi graham
It's part of the planning agreements but they always come at a cost to the builder and disgruntled buyers living next door
ATB:))

Hi Nige
I can't see house builders building for HA it involves tenders, planning, contracts and low margins. Only way would be selling all or part of sites probably at knock down prices.
Vistry certainly had a master stroke getting the Galliford division that deals with HA.
ATB:))

Hi Nige
There's a lot of companies specialising building for HA, it's not something private housebuilders do except Vistry who now have Gallifords division. My lads company has just won contracts with HA before the virus.
The only thing that housebuilders may do is sale all or part of a site to HA but might not go well with buyers.
This crisis is not going to be a quick process, I do like your optimism but can't see it happening. The chief medical officer said today she could see restrictions remaining in some form for 6 months which will wipe out this years selling season or be very patchy
A pent up demand may happen in the autumn in my opinion.
ATB:))

Hi bighammer
Had a look at faron you could be right about traumakine they seem optimistic about the treatment of coronavirus, one stumbling block is the FDA they won't rush drugs through after disasters in the past. There was a long piece in the Guardian the other day it was a long read but interesting. Novacyt is my favourite at the moment but still making money on ITM but not shorting don't agree with that.
I retired after the 2009 recession in my mid fifties due to lack of work and enthusiasm, on my last day on site the factory inspector turned up at 3pm on a Friday and caught an idiot sliding down a scaffold pole right next to a ladder. That was it for me had enough.
There should be loads of work coming through the Housing Association pipeline, I'm not expecting the house builders to give up any of their land for that though.
ATB:))

Hi Ben
There will be a boom in infrastructure work and indeed housing association work (which is where most of the shortage in housing is) but the private sector will be a long haul back as what happened after the 1981 recession. I remember the 3 months following the 1981 recession Bryant sold 4 houses, that recession resembles this one more than the 2008 one. Only the construction side kept Bryant going.

I think you're right in firms will be looking for better margins to replenish the cash piles, so expecting sub contractors taking a hit.
If the sub contractors though swap to housing association work this could eventually force prices upwards for private housing. As you said there will probably be shortfall of labour.
Time will tell
ATB:))

Hi Nige
I believe there's a long way to go before I would take up your advice.
Sales have fallen off a cliff, I can't see Wilmott carrying on for much longer(sorry cdl1).
If I was in charge of the planning for post virus I would be concentrating on opening the sales offices and marketing way before build restarts. Increase the part exchange benefits as people will not be able to sale their homes.
Complete homes that started but put on hold new ones till sold off plan.
I feel this is going to take a time to get back where it was.
The Government will want the infrastructure contracts up and running quickly to get workers going again, so for Ben and cdl1 and others there's hope there.

As far as investing goes house builders are cheap but still might drop further.
In the short term to make money now it has to be firms involved with the testing kits (Ygen, Novacyt, Genedrive) and then ones involved with the vaccine (N4pharma) these are the only ones I've been reading about
There's also gold and hydrogen plays they haven't been affected as much.

Good luck whatever you choose to do
ATB:))

Hi Razorman
That was a long read worth it though. If your interested have a look at N4 pharma Rns on what their upto
ATB:))

Hi Obadhia
He is always too negative for me never a positive at all, don't know why he's still here.
I would have hoped all production other than Saffron is now on hold unless there is a safety issue with any of the wells. Any oil from Saffron either sold or stored.
The likely hood of them stopping testing would seem slim as it may cause issues for later.
We are still being kept well in the dark with what is happening, whether LGOfan is correct and we will be getting an update at the end of March is only a few days away.
The length of time taken on the tests suggests to me that the LC is still being tested, as their are 3 horizon tests zones with maybe more inbetween and then the larger pay zones in between, so it's not straight forward and will take time.
I just wish they would inform us what is happening
ATB:))

Hi Chesh
I've been looking at a few research companies Yourgene, Novacyt and Genedrive. The first doubled on Tuesday dropping a little since, they announced a contract for Ygen to ramp up production of the Novacyt test kits. Novacyt were on BBC news last night, last week they announced 18 months of sales in 2 weeks and are ramping up production by April. It's the antigen test to see if we have it , not the antibody test to see if we've had it.
Genedrive have signed a big contract with the US defence force for their tests.
N4pharma have a patent for a delivery device for labs who are researching a vaccine
Technology is ramping up let's hope it works in time
ATB:))

Hi tiggerman
I didn't think you were being critical.
My calcs were based on figures published and if they get any bigger I will have to get a bigger calculator:))

Hi Tom
Have you seen that post by truckerboy yet on GGP very witty. He's rewritten the Lord's Prayer its very good. Brightened my day up.
ATB:))

Hi tiggerman
I only calculated on what figures were published so didn't want to speculate.
The only speculation I'm doing is where is the arcuate zone heading for. Arcuate faults are normally found with tectonic plate movements e.g. The Atlantic Ridge. This fault could be miles long, I'm hoping till it hits Scallywag:))
Arcuate zones around the world are where you will find the highest gold deposits i.e. Oregon, New Guinea and now Havieron
ATB:))

Thanks Paddy
My calcs are not too far out from yours although I did leave a small percentage out for the fault as that shouldn't contain many minerals.
At 6oz average you have a figure of 18.8m oz
Do you have any ideas of how much of this body will not be mined for structural reasons. I've a figure of less than 50% but could be way out with that

ATB:))

The stated size of the ore body at moment works out 40.5m cubic metres. To find 20m ounces every tonne would have to have 4.7 grams . The Arcuate fault running through the middle is filled with silt so that volume will have to be deducted.
The grams per tonne average needs to be higher than the 4.7 probably more like 6

Is this a possibility without a further increase in volumes
ATB:))

Imminent news on Goudron must be soon, whether it's extended or talks have been temporarily suspended.
Must be a good time to hit the market with an update on the state of production.

I'm expecting a lot of mergers to start happening in the industry , will have to wait and see on that one

Hi aspers
Spreading daft headings like this one shouldn't cause much harm to Tw at this stage.
Tw are in a totally different position now to 2008. After 2 big companies had merged to try and survive, their massive debt was nearly their undoing.
The US side of the firm used to bring in 50% of the profits and dried up overnight with no financial help whatsoever.
Their pension deficit was huge.
The US was sold at knock down price.
Land banks were sold at ridiculous prices.
The construction side acquired from Bryant was the only thing bringing in cash and was also sold off cheap.

What have we got now:-
Financial assistance
Solid land bank
Pension fund fully funded
Cash in the bank

There's no way that this will get to 2008 levels , I'm expecting it to fluctuate between £1 and £1.20

A very good RNS from Echo this morning nearly doubled the sp.
let's hope it will be repeated here :))

Novacyt seems to be the leader with the tests just signed a global distribution agreement
They've sold 18 months worth of sales in 2 weeks and ramping up production by the end of the month
Technology is bounding on at pace it could beat this threat to us all

Hi Newboy
Was bit of a surprise for me, I'm still looking will let you know next time :))