focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Just a bit of reminder again of why we are all invested in Ggp.
We know there’s an MRE coming, the FS and decision to mine are overdue, the underground works are still continuing.
At some point in 2025 the decline will reach the ore and the mining infrastructure will start and the ore will be coming out.
That’s the reason we’re here the Ore coming out the rest were always going to happen.
The gold Dore bars will be the first shipment for processing and produce the first revenues. This will pay the AISC.
The copper concentrate will end up going to Japan, this will take months to return revenues but there will be credits for gold, silver and copper.
The gold and silver credits will pay for the toll process, overheads, debts, taxes plus future capex.
At this stage no one knows how much profit will be from that gold but the real profits are in the copper .
This starts in around 12 months time with ore coming out and transported to Telfer.
The build up to this ore coming out will put big upward pressures on the sp.
We have average grades of copper quoted at 0.6% but I believe initially this could be around 3%.
We could see a huge range of copper revenues anything from $50m to $300m
Any news of an uplift in copper % will send this flying.
Catchme
That is not going to happen.
The Havieron ore is high quality, world class grades. It needs less tonnage to produce gold or copper, maybe 10x less than most producing mines.
The Antipa RNS has announced some promising anomalous gold from ground surveys. They do not look as good as what we had at Blackhills and we still haven’t found where it’s coming from.
The jv with Newcrest hasn’t found anything worth pursuing yet.
The NCM land around Telfer also hasn’t found anything.
One train at Telfer has already been designated to Havieron ore, they’ve spending loads converting it to suit Havieron ore.
The other train is dealing with very weak Telfer Ore but can take other Ores from elsewhere.
The talk at the moment seems to suggest an underwhelming MRE, probably got it from me. It’s not necessarily though going to be underwhelming.
The main figure that everyone looks for is the high numbers ie the resources, it’s this that looks as if it will be underwhelming. These resources are coming from deep down and are difficult to estimate. Underground drilling is needed to upgrade these resources.
The main thing to look for is the reserves, this is coming from the infill drilling converting existing resources into reserves at a very high conversion factor of 86%(that is a World Class stunning percentage).
The reserves stood at 2.9moz I would expect a figure hopefully around 3.8-4moz, this will be a super super update if that happens.
3.2 to 3.5 will be slightly underwhelming
3.5-3.8 good result
3.8-4 very very good
>4 fantastic
That’s the best they’ve found so far on that jv apart from Chicken Shack and Tim’s Dome.
It doesn’t look as good as Blackhills surveys.
It’s right on top of the proposed access route just to the south of the junction
The pond number 1 is filled and left to evaporate while pond 2 is filled and then pond 3.
The flow rate from the aquifer will keep coming out till the pressure drops and water content decreases.
If the evaporation rate is slow they will need to construct more ponds as shown in the approval submission shown on that thread.
If the water flow slows before the ponds are filled then extra ponds won’t be needed.
If the evaporation rate is low and the flow still strong they will have to build another pond which can’t start till the submission is approved.
It looks like the evaporation rate is quick so another pond might not be needed.
Let’s hope for no cyclones this year.
Haul road from Google Earth
Stage 2 not started yet waiting for approvals probably
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=5032#p5032
Must be getting close to knowing the evaporation rates
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=777
I’ve put some images of the graphics on this thread
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=5023#p5023
Newcrest submitted a revised referral for approval recently.
I believe that photo on LinkedIn is taken on the Northern Access Road which is shown on the top left of the plan.
The grey evaporation pond looks to be a massive extension of the ponds if required hopefully it won’t be needed. The first full pond is already evaporating quickly as can be seen in the “pond thread”
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=5020#p5020
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=857
The white area is the salts left by evaporation
Hi Zoros
It’s hard to know at this stage what the Mining Plan will entail.
I will try and detail what I’m thinking.
Reaching the ore body September quarter?
This could mean one of two things, firstly getting to the top of the ore body or secondly as seen from those graphics the green exploration Decline finishes at a production level.
The first production level could also mean two things.
Top of the ore is 420m below surface but that’s only in an area to the west of the Dyke. The first stope level from the graphics in this area is 21-22m or 441-442 from surface.
This requires an additional 150m of Decline and also around 2-300m of infrastructure some of this goes through the ore. That is 1 month for the Decline and 2 months of infrastructure.
The main production level is another 56m lower. A further 3 months plus 2 months infrastructure.
Therefore I have 2 dates in mind one is we reach the ore face with infrastructure by Oct-Nov 24, or January 25.
Infrastructure ore could start coming out Oct-Nov24. Main production from that top level will be 2025.
The Run of Mine stockpile area has increased significantly in the last submission so I’m assuming they will be looking at multiple mine faces during 2025. The contract for shifting ore to Telfer can only start when there is a sufficient stockpile .
The main production level could be June 25 and the third level September 25.
Also the Eastern front will be ready June 25.
The top area though is where all the juicy grades are 10% copper and 0.5m intercepts of 64g/t, 103g/t, 211g/t gold.
This is my thoughts based on 5m per day progress, the rate may double in drier working conditions bringing timelines forward.
Changes to the Mining Plan are almost certainly going to happen at FS
Don’t forget the copper
At 3m tons per annum at 0.6% grade
Today’s price = $3.885 per lb
2240lbs per ton
3m x 0.6% x 2240 x 3.885 x 30% =$47m to Ggp
Price may rise to $4.5 =$57m to Ggp
0.6% is an average but grades are likely to increase
At 1%
$3.885 = $78m
$4.5 = $91m
At First ore 3% may be possible
$3.885 = $238m
$4.5m = $272m
Prices could rise to an all time high of $5 and the grades could achieve higher than 3.
If the costs are taken out of the gold revenues this leaves all the copper revenues into Ggp accounts
These revenues in one year could pay for all the mines capex
The grade announcement and prices at all time high could have a phenomenal effect on the share price.