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This heading is misleading.
The recovery rate can only be applied to indicated gold resources which in yesterday’s announcement is 5moz.
86% of 5m is around 4.3moz which should be the reserve figure.
Havieron
Is very high grade
That is high grade gold
20% of which is copper
Multi element
Over 1200m deep
Infrastructure 2/3rds complete to the ore
No processing plant required
Ggp fully funded to first Ore
Debt fascility in place with 3 major banks
3 years payback
Potential for further high quality zones and multi elements.
A huge multi decade discovery
The Feasibility Study is going to be a big catalyst.
The new reserves will be announced.
It’s the reserves that have the value not the resources.
The numbers today are indicating a fantastic up tick to the reserves. That’s somewhere between 3.8 to 4.3m oz eq that’s very good to fantastic.
There are two categories in this MRE:-
Inferred is just a number, it’s the amount that can be infill drilled and upgraded to indicated resources.
Indicated resources only have an inground value maybe $100-200 per ton.
Indicated resources can only be converted to reserves with the appropriate drilling spacing and a high degree of estimating confidence.
Ggp have a conversion factor of 86% for resources to reserves that is extremely high.
Roll on the FS 🙂
Fascinating watching the drone flights of the Icelandic volcanoe. Seeing a Dyke forming and a line of volcanic plumes coming out of it.
The magma flow away from the fissure is to the east mainly effected by a strong wind, apparently the magma is diluted with gas which makes it light so it’s effected by the strong winds. The lie of the land is also lower to the east. The lava coming out was hotter when it first started but now has lost some heat so it had thinner magma layers to start and then thickened up forming deeper layers and pushing new lavas into different directions.
They’ve tested the lava and found plagioclase which we’ve seen recently mentioned in different results. In amongst the plag is green olivine where normally you would find alumina but this has been replaced by chromium.
Panorama has similar features to these lava flows
Copper tonnages in the MRE will always be on the low side at Havieron.
This is is due to the estimation techniques of forming zones or domains around the mineralisation. In this case the gold and bismuth especially at the top correlate with each other so will be modelled together. The copper is in amongst these 2 and can’t be estimated on its own it’s estimated on the gold domains, outside of these domains the copper isnt included.
The copper totals therefore after processing should be higher than estimated.
There’s other elements that are treated separately in there estimates through assay results these include iron, sulphur, nickel, cobalt, calcium and magnesium.
Havieron is a multi element ore body and should provide additional credits/ revenues.
Only the reserves can be valued like this, resources in the ground has a small value $100-200.
7moz of gold resources you have to deduct the inferred they cannot be upgraded with a conversion factor to indicated. However you can use the 86% conversion factor on the indicated to get a reserve figure.
Once you have a reserve figure a company can add this to their current assets.
To work out revenues though a recovery factor in this case 87% we’ve been told today must be applied before multiplying by the price.
It’s why I’ve been saying this MRE will not make a difference till the FS is released.
The gold equivalent figure will change when Newmont use their figures, Ggp have used $1700 au and $8268 copper, NEM with their larger overheads will use a lower price for both au and cu lowering the equivalent values.
Thanks Redirons
My logic was magma coming up from below has to be continuous there must be a connection. Everything was hinging around that steep dipping Dyke, the Dyke was post mineralisation so had to be following the line of a lower intrusion.
I believe the magma source deep down to be somewhere under Nimitz. There are 9km of sedimentary rocks under the cover so could be 5-9km down to the magma source, that’s still a big question.
The recent Icelandic volcanoe has a source near the blue lagoon but hasn’t come straight up it sent a horizontal sill eastwards causing earthquake fault lines until it found a vertical weak spot and has formed a 3km long Dyke and now has 2 active vents. This source is 5km down.
Now the SE crescent zone is said to be 1200m deep and open at depth.
What they haven’t found yet is the tail of these sulphides coming up from below. What they have identified is high grades pods in the SE crescent. Somewhere in the Eastern Breccia should be the”tail” causing this high grade.
We actually know the mineralisation goes down to 1430m + cover through drilling results but the sulphides haven’t been located yet.
Fan drilling should be immensely exciting, it’s going to fill a lot of those blanks in between those pods in the breccia some though will always be weak stuff.
Although there’s a lot to take in there is also the main part deferred till the FS.
The reserves have not been issued only the resources.
The resource figure has grown to what we were expecting, the 10m now is within touching distance.
The only thing this indicated resource figure does for us is to be able to convert 86% to reserves .
Shaun confirmed 86% in his interview but realistically it should drop with the added depth as has the opvm figure 7,900.
We had 2.9moz reserves last time they are suggesting and uplift in the FS of 32%, that would put the reserves up to 3.828moz eq, now that fits in with my expectations.
Converting the ore back from 5moz resource, 86% gives 4.3moz eq now that would be exceptional but I think the conversion rate will fall back to below 80%.
Looks as though the NSR rate is stabilising at around $80/t dropping from the PFS $130 , MRE2 $90
The recovery rates have changed slightly now 87% for both au and cu
Looks like my assumption from 2 years ago that the Eastern Breccia is continuous with the Northern Breccia has been confirmed at last.
Joining these 2 breccias will give a more modest average grade which they are saying is 1.3g/t
Confirmation that the ore resource is now 1200m deep is good news but we know they’ve found more down to about 1430m.
High grade crescent now 3.5g/t for resource will be interesting to see what the reserve one turns out to be.
It looks to me that Newmont may have suggested not issuing the reserves till the FS.
Just a bit of reminder again of why we are all invested in Ggp.
We know there’s an MRE coming, the FS and decision to mine are overdue, the underground works are still continuing.
At some point in 2025 the decline will reach the ore and the mining infrastructure will start and the ore will be coming out.
That’s the reason we’re here the Ore coming out the rest were always going to happen.
The gold Dore bars will be the first shipment for processing and produce the first revenues. This will pay the AISC.
The copper concentrate will end up going to Japan, this will take months to return revenues but there will be credits for gold, silver and copper.
The gold and silver credits will pay for the toll process, overheads, debts, taxes plus future capex.
At this stage no one knows how much profit will be from that gold but the real profits are in the copper .
This starts in around 12 months time with ore coming out and transported to Telfer.
The build up to this ore coming out will put big upward pressures on the sp.
We have average grades of copper quoted at 0.6% but I believe initially this could be around 3%.
We could see a huge range of copper revenues anything from $50m to $300m
Any news of an uplift in copper % will send this flying.
Catchme
That is not going to happen.
The Havieron ore is high quality, world class grades. It needs less tonnage to produce gold or copper, maybe 10x less than most producing mines.
The Antipa RNS has announced some promising anomalous gold from ground surveys. They do not look as good as what we had at Blackhills and we still haven’t found where it’s coming from.
The jv with Newcrest hasn’t found anything worth pursuing yet.
The NCM land around Telfer also hasn’t found anything.
One train at Telfer has already been designated to Havieron ore, they’ve spending loads converting it to suit Havieron ore.
The other train is dealing with very weak Telfer Ore but can take other Ores from elsewhere.
The talk at the moment seems to suggest an underwhelming MRE, probably got it from me. It’s not necessarily though going to be underwhelming.
The main figure that everyone looks for is the high numbers ie the resources, it’s this that looks as if it will be underwhelming. These resources are coming from deep down and are difficult to estimate. Underground drilling is needed to upgrade these resources.
The main thing to look for is the reserves, this is coming from the infill drilling converting existing resources into reserves at a very high conversion factor of 86%(that is a World Class stunning percentage).
The reserves stood at 2.9moz I would expect a figure hopefully around 3.8-4moz, this will be a super super update if that happens.
3.2 to 3.5 will be slightly underwhelming
3.5-3.8 good result
3.8-4 very very good
>4 fantastic
That’s the best they’ve found so far on that jv apart from Chicken Shack and Tim’s Dome.
It doesn’t look as good as Blackhills surveys.
It’s right on top of the proposed access route just to the south of the junction
The pond number 1 is filled and left to evaporate while pond 2 is filled and then pond 3.
The flow rate from the aquifer will keep coming out till the pressure drops and water content decreases.
If the evaporation rate is slow they will need to construct more ponds as shown in the approval submission shown on that thread.
If the water flow slows before the ponds are filled then extra ponds won’t be needed.
If the evaporation rate is low and the flow still strong they will have to build another pond which can’t start till the submission is approved.
It looks like the evaporation rate is quick so another pond might not be needed.
Let’s hope for no cyclones this year.
Haul road from Google Earth
Stage 2 not started yet waiting for approvals probably
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=5032#p5032