Member Info for baldmark

From the Sun article: "It is unclear when the potential assassination attempt took place and it has not been immediately possible to verify the claim." i.e. "we just made it up."

https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/605284/why-rare-earth-metals-are-a-good-buy-for-investors

Given it takes 10 months to throw out a request for an annulment which clearly has no legal merit (and several years if it does) it would seem a no brainer for Italy to make such an appeal in 22 December. 10 months is a long time in Italian politics and it's probably someone else's problem by then.

What does your crystal ball tell you? Mine's a bit cloudy at the moment.

Does anyone know how easy it is for Italy to get this on the annulment queue? Is it just a case of paying the the 25K and rehashing some of their rejected arguments about jurisdiction, or is there some pre-screening to even get on the queue?

Even if they believe there is zero chance of the judgement finally being annulled, kicking the can down the road for three years or so may be politically appealing. The award only compounds at EURIBOR+4 which is only about 1% above Italian Government Debt, or several percent below inflation. It also doesn't appear to the EU or the bond market as government debt.

I doubt the climate lobby will be much help. A lot of greens are ambivalent or outright hostile to handing food production to big tech. As good puritans everyone should go vegan, eat less and stop breeding.

Meanwhile the farming lobby will keep up the Frankenstein food narrative.

The only way to win is to be cheaper, scale, and stay solvent longer than the world can stay irrational.

Precision fermentation is the best shot at this, but it's far from a done deal.

A lot of people in social housing will have their rent paid, directly or indirectly, by some branch of the state. IMO it's mainly to reduce this cost that the government is supporting this measure.

This from the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/aug/31/social-housing-rent-rises-to-be-capped-in-england-next-year

Not sure how much of this is already in the price, but certainly not positive.

Bit of dilution since then unfortunately. Still holding for more than 14p though.

It may be dropped in the long term. I make no claim to understand FI tax law or politics.

However, in the short term, it is an problem for anyone wanting to take the OM cash and run.

The SP, probably correctly, reflects the short term. I'm sceptical of anyone who claims to be able to predict the energy market or politics if/when Sealion is producing.

Thanks. So if, once paid, we payed the tax, left the oil in the ground, and distributed what was left it would be about £100m or 15.5p per share, assuming all warrants exercised. Obviously there would be cost involved so the current SP seems about right, or possibly a bit high for that scenario.

I'm not saying that is what I expect, just trying to establish a floor.

Sorry question answered while I was posting. Any asset stripper would need to be based in Argentina or some other jurisdiction that didn't recognise FIG. That lowers the floor a lot :(

Does anyone know the terms of the agreement? i.e. if RKH were to distribute cash would it just loose the Falklands license or would there be enforceable financial penalties on top, assuming it never wished to do business in the Falklands again? What I'm trying to get is a floor value as a cash shell once Italy transfers the money.

Guardian have picked it up. Obviously saying how awful it is, but still likely to bring in a few new investors to mop up the profit takers. ( A Guardian article first alerted me to RKH/OM.)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/24/oil-firm-rockhopper-wins-210m-payout-after-being-banned-from-drilling

@LTT,

"So be honest I can’t understand why they would not want this out of the way now, let the news drop as the old government is on its way out. Why wait and have the new government paying the bill!"

If, and it's still a big if, we have won, I would have thought it would suit the international legal industry/EU/WEF/lizards very well to deliver the Brothers a steaming turd soon after they take office. For a populist government there is no good option. Pay and be seen to cowtow to the international lawyers; don't pay and risk having state assets seized like some tinpot dictatorship. And it's all the fault of a Brexit British company.

Power is not having to explain.

Does anyone know if Jim Mellon is still invested? He presumably would know what's going on.

If it's moving this much on low volume and no news, it should be interesting when there is some news (good or bad).

Does anyone have any idea what the fair value would be if we loose/receive a trivial award for OM? I'd imagine the SP will tank short term which may provide an opportunity to top up very cheaply.

Thanks for the calculation. I think you have forgotten the 61m warrants. In case of a decent award these will be exercised. Therefore need to divide the net award by 640m. i.e. 1p added value per share per £6.4m net award. Then apply a suitable discount factor for the fact that the cash won't be realised in the short term (i.e. it will, when paid, be used to reduce the amount of borrowing to first oil). Some holders will be looking to exit/reduce on the OM result so the share price is unlikely to rise by the full amount. Unless you're holding for oil or bust, what factor to apply depends on how patient you are and your estimate of the risk of something going wrong while you wait.

I'd be tempted to top up if it wasn't for the comedy spread :(. Holding for now.