Member Info for baldmark

"At least we still have a deal, albeit back ended rather than front ended."

Based on the history, we only have a deal once we have an RNS confirming cleared funds in Pathfinder's bank account.

Also assuming (a) AAG has actually secured funding for at least US$15 million to fund the Claim, (b) does pursue the claim and (c) wins and (d) manages to recover the money from the Government of Mozambique: What certainty can we have that AAG will then pay us? Contracts only matter if they can be enforced.

The Board reaffirms it is targeting an aggregate dividend of 6.0 pence per Ordinary Share for the year ending 31 December 2023[2]. The initiatives above are believed to be accretive to dividend cover, however for the avoidance of doubt, and as stated before, further capital being invested into the Investee Companies is not forecast to be required to achieve a future period dividend covered by the operating cash flow of the Investee Companies. This is expected to be substantially achieved by 31 December 2024 as a result of the continued maturity of the high-growth platforms (particularly data centres and subsea fibre), the reduction and ultimate expiry of the accretion payments made by Arqiva (in relation to its inflation linked swaps) and the future forecast IRU sales from the Company's investment in EMIC-1.

The Board has considered reducing the above target of 6.0 pence per Ordinary Share for the year ending 31 December 2023 and understands some shareholders would support such a reduction. However, on balance, the Board considers it appropriate to maintain the target given: the route to a covered dividend outlined above; the income requirements of many shareholders; and the relatively limited absolute sum that would be saved by reducing the 6.0 pence target.

I can't see how a Morocco have a problem with Emmerson using too much water has any bearing on a project in the Republic of Congo. As I understand the problem the govt of ROC have with Kore is our total failure to build the mine, not the environmental impact if/when we do.

I can't see too much significance in a large price move as result of £10K of sales, other than if PIs with even a moderate holding want to throw in the towel, we're looking at a large discount to the listed price :(

Looks to me like he bought them in 500K batches between 11:34:06 and 11:50:21.

Unfortunately it's not at all difficult to make a loss on German residential real estate at the moment. Take a look at Vonovia for example. The situation with Deutche Bank and it's knock on effect on lending isn't helping sentiment either. Possibly oversold but not at all unique.

Adamsky,

I hope you are right. However:

The valuation, being based on what AAG are willing to pay and PFP accept for 80% of the risk adjusted cashflows resulting from the claim very definitely does take into account any settlement or a successful BIT claim. The probabilities and payouts of such outcomes will have been estimated by AAG when determining the price they were willing to pay and by PFP when deciding whether to accept it.

I'm sure AAG will 'use its best endeavours to settle and/or finalise the Claim within five years’. they want to get paid!. I still believe that 5 years is a very optimistic timescale to seek and win the claim, deal with any appeal / attempt at an annulment and then identify and seek ownership of Mozambique overseas assets when they refuse to pay. It's doable - it's how litigation finance companies make their money - but it's not quick.

I still maintain that few managers or politicians will volunteer for a small amount of pain now to save however is in their role in 10 years time a lot of pain then.

I've been trying to come up with a back of an envelope fair value for the shares given today's news. As far as I can see, the current share price seems reasonable, however I would welcome being told where I have gone wrong.

We now have the following mark-to-market value for the claim:
Price paid for 80% of claim = £2m + $15m = £14.24m
Therefore value of 20% = £3.56m
Add in the £2m received and say half the £.5m recently raised to get a value of £5.8m for the company.
Divide by 632m shares gives about 0.9p per share.

Then of course you need to discount this for the fact that over half of this is fair value not cash and the risk that the BOD will make a bad investment with the cash. The 40% implied by the current SP seems a bit harsh but a lot of other investments are getting marked down at least as much. With the current general market sentiment it doesn't seem crazy.

The only thing that could change the calculation would be the prospect of either the Mozambique government or TZM making a bid for Pathfinder before the AGM on 26 April to make the problem go away. I can't see this happening since, whatever the long term benefit, the Mozambique government would seem weak in the short term. TZM has no incentive either since the compensation is the problem for the Government of Mozambique in 5-10 years time. If they then try and reassign the license then they will be messing with China which would be unadvisable!

I currently have a smallish long position. Based on this, I will be holding but not adding.

Unfortunately, with the recent US sanctions, Nicaragua may be a bit toxic for some of the majors. I suspect we'll end up being sold to the Chinese at a commensurate price. Still hopefully more than 16p though.

@Sre85, The Frankfurt price is a bit of a red herring. When I looked it was €0.0015 bid, €0.0095 ask. i.e. a 533% spread, aka non-tradable.

Not sure where the bottom is, but I don't think the answer is in Frankfurt.

Could just be a risk on market mood. A few of my more speculative holding have been up the past couple of days with no discernible cause other than the more buyers than sellers in a thin market. Still, better than the alternative :)

On balance, with a correctly scaled position, I prefer that to the usual AIM formula of overpromising, delays and dilution keeping the BODs snouts in the trough while waiting for the big event that never comes.

Looks like the only way to currently get expose to Kanga Potash in the UK is via Baker Steel Resources Trust and it look like they have only as small percentage of their fund invested there.

From the BMN board. r/wallstreetbets post on Vanadium grid storage. Also mentions IES in the comments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yorcts/is_vanadium_the_next_lithium_energy_grid_storage/

I suspect that was what most investors were thinking. If Italy had paid that would have been a surprise. What has spooked the market is the fact that the lawyers have said will two years, i.e. not go via the "fast" track for rejecting claims that are totally without merit in 10-12 months. By implication this suggest that the claim is not totally without merit. Also the 3m payable before we get paid is unwelcome and unexpected. Anything that shows the BOD aren't being entirely honest with us isn't going to help the SP.

Might be a good time to get into IES as well if you haven't already done so.

I'm looking at PHP as a possible addition to my portfolio. However, I am a bit concerned by the LTV ratio of 43%. (Source https://www.phpgroup.co.uk/application/files/5416/5890/1486/PHP_2022_Interim_Statement_FINAL.pdf)

While doctors' surgeries are certainly a lot more recession proof than retail or offices, as fixed income assets, they could still be subject to down valuations in a higher interest rate environment. I note that most of the debt is fixed/hedged so there shouldn't be any payment problems, however does anyone know of any LTV covenants that could be triggered by portfolio revaluation?

Good spot @JOEHIGASHI.

May be pretty much a forced move to keep the lights on. Partially shift towards something that may make it to market before we run out of money. I don't see market sentiment shifting enough to allow a placing for some time and would rather not return to the plan for JM to take the company private at 6p.

100Cups, amazing how the British Chancellor can tank the price of oil, copper, silver and assorted US tech stocks.

POLY isn't a fair comparison; it's only half Russian. Perversely, the madder Putin acts, the more pressure to split the Russian an Kazakhstan parts of POLY which would boost its short term share price.