Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This from the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/aug/31/social-housing-rent-rises-to-be-capped-in-england-next-year
Not sure how much of this is already in the price, but certainly not positive.
It may be dropped in the long term. I make no claim to understand FI tax law or politics.
However, in the short term, it is an problem for anyone wanting to take the OM cash and run.
The SP, probably correctly, reflects the short term. I'm sceptical of anyone who claims to be able to predict the energy market or politics if/when Sealion is producing.
Thanks. So if, once paid, we payed the tax, left the oil in the ground, and distributed what was left it would be about £100m or 15.5p per share, assuming all warrants exercised. Obviously there would be cost involved so the current SP seems about right, or possibly a bit high for that scenario.
I'm not saying that is what I expect, just trying to establish a floor.
Does anyone know the terms of the agreement? i.e. if RKH were to distribute cash would it just loose the Falklands license or would there be enforceable financial penalties on top, assuming it never wished to do business in the Falklands again? What I'm trying to get is a floor value as a cash shell once Italy transfers the money.
Guardian have picked it up. Obviously saying how awful it is, but still likely to bring in a few new investors to mop up the profit takers. ( A Guardian article first alerted me to RKH/OM.)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/24/oil-firm-rockhopper-wins-210m-payout-after-being-banned-from-drilling
@LTT,
"So be honest I can’t understand why they would not want this out of the way now, let the news drop as the old government is on its way out. Why wait and have the new government paying the bill!"
If, and it's still a big if, we have won, I would have thought it would suit the international legal industry/EU/WEF/lizards very well to deliver the Brothers a steaming turd soon after they take office. For a populist government there is no good option. Pay and be seen to cowtow to the international lawyers; don't pay and risk having state assets seized like some tinpot dictatorship. And it's all the fault of a Brexit British company.
If it's moving this much on low volume and no news, it should be interesting when there is some news (good or bad).
Does anyone have any idea what the fair value would be if we loose/receive a trivial award for OM? I'd imagine the SP will tank short term which may provide an opportunity to top up very cheaply.
Thanks for the calculation. I think you have forgotten the 61m warrants. In case of a decent award these will be exercised. Therefore need to divide the net award by 640m. i.e. 1p added value per share per £6.4m net award. Then apply a suitable discount factor for the fact that the cash won't be realised in the short term (i.e. it will, when paid, be used to reduce the amount of borrowing to first oil). Some holders will be looking to exit/reduce on the OM result so the share price is unlikely to rise by the full amount. Unless you're holding for oil or bust, what factor to apply depends on how patient you are and your estimate of the risk of something going wrong while you wait.
I'd be tempted to top up if it wasn't for the comedy spread :(. Holding for now.
Doric Nimrod Air One Ltd - Guernsey-based investment company that leases aircraft - Reaches agreement to sell aircraft to Emirates airlines at end of lease, expected to be December 16, for GBP25.3 million. Will distribute sale proceeds to shareholders. "It is currently anticipated that the process for liquidation of the company will commence as soon as practicably possible thereafter, following payment of monies to shareholders," it adds. Liquidation expected in early in the first calendar quarter of 2023. Shareholder return to be about 66 pence.
As a back of an envelope calculation - if DNA2 gets the same price for each of its 7 A380, NAV = 7*25.3m / 173m shares = £1.02 per share in 2 and a bit years with an 18% yield until then. (Obviously a lot can go wrong, or right, in the next couple of years though.)
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/DNA/trading-updates-premier-miton-assets-dip-challenger-energy-cfo-quits-dei3ozqcn96bl4o.html
This is getting confusing. It looks to me that the 10:34 RNS implies all requests for open offer shares were satisfied in full since, in total, they were only for 69% of the available offer units. i.e. the open offer was undersubscribed.
I don't think "Assented Line" means you definitely have all the shares, merely that your application has been received and the funds taken. The results of the open offer haven't been announced yet so there is no way HL could know the allocation.
The accompanying text would seem to support this: "This stock is an interim line resulting from a corporate action that will be exchanged for cash and/or stock."
Pretty good explanation of why you're not likely to get anywhere:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/20/boris-johnson-volodymyr-zelenskiy-phone-call-kyiv-aid
@Polinvest, in the current abnormal situation, not paying a dividend doesn't indicate anything wrong, just political awareness by the BOD. If we payed what would be picked up by the media as a massive dividend (e.g. the previous announced and then cancelled final dividend) we'd be painting a big target on our back for the politicians.