Member Info for baldmark

The open offer shares held by PI's in some platforms are not yet tradeable, so anyone who has applied for a lot more than they want won't be able to sell them until their corporate (in)action and/or IT department do their stuff. (I only know about Halifax and AJBell. From prior experience HL are more efficient; I guess you get what you pay for.)

Clearly anyone feeling overexposed will probably have already sold any pre-existing shares, hence the drop on the allocation RNS, do it really depends how greedy people have been. Interesting week :)

Monetising the award doesn't mean that the overall value has gone up unless you believe it was previously worth nothing. The deal clearly makes sense in facilitating Rockhopper's objective of getting to FID without further dilution and it's good that FIG aren't being unnecessarily obstructive. However we haven't suddenly gained 2p per share value in 5 days time. We have simply swapped a larger uncertain future payment for a smaller more certain one.

Qualifying Shareholders who applied for Excess Shares through the Excess Application Facility will receive 74.3% per cent. of the Excess Shares applied for.

Those applying through the big platforms are likely to get more due to application pooling meaning that they get the benefit of any unused basic allocation from other holders on the platform. Receiving all shares applied for seems possible.

This is more than some people were expecting. The question is, will many of those who went large on the excess application expecting to be greatly scaled back, then sell down to what they actually wanted taking a quick profit?

@Dibs61, Compared to a 97.6% loss got Polarean in the past two years it is :(

In hindsight, not a great time to be invested in small cap, early stage, UK listed, biotech.

I still think, given that we are where we are, doing something before the wolf is actually at the door was a good move.

Full credit for getting a placing off in a timely manner and at a reasonable discount. Take a look at Polarean (who also IMO have a good product but underestimated the time and money to get it to market) for what happens if you leave it to the last minute.

If the new board get rid if the Poddars would there be possibility that they could sell the existing plant and graphite in the ground to another company that would be capable of taking it forward (Chinese?) rather than attempting to raise case to develop it?

The graphite's still in the ground.

It's possible to view the latest RNS as mildly positive since it will make it more likely that the twitter group will get the votes required to try and turn it around. Zero is still the most likely outcome, but with the present management it's a virtual certainty.

I don't have enough fingers left to make another attempt to catch the falling knife, but I'm planning to hold until the meeting.

Thanks @RIDER75,

He seems like a sensible chap. I'll take a look at "The Art of Execution". However there are rather a lot of paid due diligence/research/tip service providers.

Any chance you'd share then name of the "Undervalued Liquidation Case"? (Obviously not if it's going to invalidate the membership that you've paid for!)

Https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/09/world-court-germany-support-israel-geopolitics-nicaragua

Possible that there will be some retaliation, i.e. restrictions on western companies (e.g. Calibre, Mako) doing business in Nicaragua. Not great if Calibre is the bidder, clearly no problem if it's the Chinese.

I suppose it could be seen as positive. If insiders are willing to invest, albeit at 0.38, to keep the lights on, it does at least mean that they still have some expectation of an EPC and mine funding.

Thanks @condor_forever, I see it:

Filed 2024-03-14 03:17

Tx date 2024-03-14 $CXB

Calibre Mining Corp. King, Ryan

5 - Senior Officer of Issuer

Direct Ownership

Common Shares

10 - Acquisition or disposition in the public market $3,560

+2,000 vol $1.78 each

New Balance 398,200

There seem to have been quite a lot of insider transactions in the past six months, so I clearly can't trust yahoo :(

@condor_forever, You say "One board member of calibre bought on the open market last week (14th March)." I assume you mean bought shares of Condor since, according to Yahoo, no insiders have bought Calibre shares recently (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CXB.TO/insider-transactions). This is clearly very relevant re a possible Calibre bid. What is your source of this information?

LIBOR was 2 % 6 years ago. Now it's 5 1/2%. This may have a bearing on funding cost and thus the present value of the project.

If they equity raise is turned down and the company is unable to replay the retail bond in August, aren't they insolvent?

They may have a chance to persuade the retail bond holders to extend and pretend since the secured creditors would have priority in the windup that would inevitably follow a default. (I haven't seen the terms but would imagine that all secured notes would become immediately payable on default or insolvency.) However I would very much doubt that they would be able to salvage anything much for the shareholders.

I'm guessing that any institutional shareholders that have not already sold will not want to play Russian roulette and so will vote for the equity issue to salvage something - especially if they are offered a sweeter deal that PIs :(

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/07/uk-green-power-industry-pledge-natpower-battery-storage

I don't dispute that they are getting a very good deal.

The question is, would our creditors allow us to wait for it to be snapped up by someone else if Ardian decide that they want an even better deal?

I hope this is a red herring, however is anyone able to definitivly answer this?

Is there any way that Ardian could either pull out of or renegotiate the Verne Purchase at the last moment to take advantage of the fact that we appear a distressed seller? (i.e. How binding and enforceable is the "definitive agreement" described in the 27 November RNS?) Obviously, if there are other potential buyers, they run the risk of loosing a sale which, if they have the funds, is likely to prove profitable to them. However this sort of thing happens all the time in the housing market and also seems to happen in the corporate market too - a recent example, of which I am all too aware, being the sale if IM Minerals Ltd by Pathfinder Minerals Plc to Acumen Advisory Group LLC where AAG dropped the price after the initially proposed completion date and PFP was in no position to object.

ToD, I agree "value is meaningless IMO" in the very short term. This is not a share to day trade since you will be at an information disadvantage.

However in the longer term it is everything. Given that the liquidity problem has been dealt with this is the lowest risk way to double my money over the next 3-5 years I can find at the moment. Definitely one to buy and hold. It is currently the largest position in my portfolio and the one I will lose the least sleep over.

I think is was voted down because they were taking the good stuff and leaving us with the rubbish. The latest valuation is for the whole lot.

Thanks for the correction. So we're wiped out on April Fools' Day.