Member Info for bald_eagle

As Spike wisely pointed out, it's all a bit academic where they build the next processing plant. The most important thing is that they are seen to have a workable plan...namely to upgrade Sekisovkoye from 850ktpa to 1Mtpa over the next 3 years and then commence construction of the new plant at....

Got an answer from the company....took some time as I was warned it would.

Drum roll....and the answer is....

The elastic band must be getting very taut!

The TIPS tip seems a damp squib

"2022 and 2023 forcecast is for 38000oz each year which is then stable quarterly production of 9500oz."
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I suppose the 'big' question is how easy is it going to be to upgrade the current processing plant from 850ktpa by another 150ktpa whilst maintaining ore processing....there is bound to be some disruption. But hopefully they have a workable plan for achieving minimal disruption. 38,000 oz forescast for next 2 years would suggest they think the upgrade won't impact gold production significantly.

"the investor presentation released in mid September had a forecast of 30,000oz produced this year "
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Funnily enough I guesstimated in March 2020 that they would produce 30,000 oz of gold this year. But 'only' 13,000 oz first half means they have some catching up to hit the target....but new equipment and higher grade ore could get them there.
Puts the 'research' that forecast 26,000 oz (promoted by the company) into perspective....Altyn shooting itself in the foot (again!).
Winter is coming - when mining becomes harder - and it will be interesting to see how ALtyn cope in q4 especially.

"They have mined more than they milled over the last 18months so they must have a stockpile ..."
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I was thinking exactly the same thing this morning. Over 100,000 tonnes of ore is sitting somewhere doing nothing. It won't be the highest grade stuff....so if they are mining higher grade ore then they may not touch the stockpile unless they have extra processing capability. They need as much gold poured as possible given the relatively high gold price and also to attract potential investors. I wonder if there is a cost involved in having +100,000 tonnes laying about....contains about $5m of gold I calculated.

Last March (2020) I guesstimated H1 numbers at 282,000 tonnes mined and 13,700 oz. So not a million miles away. Q3 is unlikely to see a step change from the gradual progression in mined ore, grade and recovery rates.
q3 (2021) my numbers were 163,000 tonnes and 7,900 oz. So anywhere near those numbers would be 'good'. Not enough 'probably' to cause a stampede but rather show steady progress.
It would be 'sensible' to have a Q3 production update prior to a bond placing (assuming it is 'good' news)....but it's a little early perhaps and also Altyn don't always do 'sensible'!!

An interesting discussion about Evergrande on Aljazeera (inside story).

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/9/24/will-china-rescue-the-troubled-property-group-evergrande

Seems that the regulator in China (communist leadership) wants to impose pain on property speculation....but the regulator is unlikely to know all of the consequences of letting it fail.

Thanks

"yes,japanesification,is a new word....by me."
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Oh, it's make up new words time. Shakespeare would be proud.
How about utterbollofication?.....meaning: to spout nonsense in the hope that people will think you know what you are talking about...aka Johnsonism.

Would that be money for the expansion of Sekisovkoye mine & upgrade of current processing plant to 1Mtpa?
I don't quite understand the sums of money required by the second processing plant - other than substantial - and it probably won't be clear how they will fund it until 1Mtpa is reached. I suppose in theory they could start fairly soon on design, survey and some ground works for the new plant which wouldn't cost too much (they have machinery from the open pit operation).

"...is japanesication actually a word ?"
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Is it desiccated Japanese??.....(I refer you to the list of American 'wrong doings'!)

Troajan, couldn't we also come up with a list for the US of A:

ime sure North American Indians,wont agree.
or North Vietnamese
or Mexico (over independence of Texas)
or Cuba
or Japanese at Hiroshima & Nagasaki
or Afghanistan
or Kurds in Syria
or .......

I expect the British will have a long long list of aggrieved parties.

The point is NOT to justify or endorse what China is doing but to understand it is to be expected. When we handed Hong Kong back to China we hoped that China would become more democratic as they became more affluent, they would copy our ways....it was a rather naive hope.

The 'answer' is to stop buying cheap Chinese goods....but we are addicted to cheap manufacturing like an addict is to crack cocaine.

"...but in recent years,theyre becoming a BULLY,around the pacific rim and behond"
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Over the centuries the Chinese have been bullied by the 'best'....and the British empire was one of the 'best', with their gun-boat diplomacy. Slightly ironic that the bullies have become model citizens (if one believes that) and complain that the Chinese are playing the 'game' too roughly.

The Chinese are only asserting themselves using their new found confidence. Hopefully they will find a way to become 'model citizens' in the future. The 'good' thing is that when China decide to do something they do it....rather than talk about it and do nothing!!

"These small companies didn't hedge for the price rises so it's their own fault."
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I was going to say exactly the same thing. Big question is how the regulator allowed them to have such risky business models....light touch regulation doesn't work for critical industries, it gives the cowboys free rein.

SP seems attached to about 180p by a pretty strong elastic band....I reckon we have all figured that out by now. Even the 'analysts' seem to be getting bored and apologetic at repeating themselves.

"Cant see any point in just taking the money out of the company. No sense at all."
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NSS, investors love a 'special' dividend (me too)....buy-backs less so. But you have a point. Selling off assets and then NOT investing in the business means that the company reduces in value. Perhaps the management don't need the cash for their transition plan, but equally it is what companies do when they are winding down, sell off assets and distribute the proceeds.
Slightly worrying if they distribute all the 7 billion because it could mean the management don't have any meaningful plan for a green future. There must be ways of using some of the money on green projects, research and/or start-ups.

Presumably once RDSB have the 7 billion in the bank they will announce the distribution amount for shareholders....which could be share buy-back and/or 'special' dividend and/or another mechanism?

"It is all a bit academic though - I think we’ll be delighted here when Altyn can fully utilize the existing 850ktpa plant that they have."
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Spike , of course you are correct. Ther most important thing is that they get Sekisovkoye working at 850Ktpa and upgraded to 1Mtpa.

But a third processing plant is a big investment and requires a huge management committment in time & resources. Blandly suggesting that additional facilities are in the 'plan' doesn't help investors understand the company (IMO). Altyn need to crawl before they even start walking...some are looking at record breaking marathon times!!

The company isn't helping with ambiguous communications.