Member Info for bald_eagle

Found this on the Glencore board:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/958274/oil-price-cools-this-week-amid-pandemic-and-global-economy-fears-958274.html

"The point behind this diatribe is an unpleasant suspicion a reality bomb is going to hit the UK markets in months to come."

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/ftse-friday-and-price-wood-ii521164

Alistair Strang(e) is predicting trouble ahead because he cannot afford the price of a fitted kitchen. Strang(er) things have happened I suppose!

"Wood has gotten seriously expensive, tripling in price during the last few months.....If we zoom out and regard this from a bigger picture stance, timber is such a basic building material and the need to re-cost future works must be giving problems. A call to a chum confirmed the issue, his company supplies and fits kitchens. Sales have declined to the extent he’s opting to close this part of his company."

What are they going to do with it?
Presumably they also have buy-back shares in treasury.

Technically Russia is in Europe, but they don't always act like they are. I suspect the goals of their leadership are quite different to the vast majority of European nations.

Russia in the recent past has used gas supplies to punish nations that have upset them....reducing gas supplies in the middle of winter can can focus the mind. The threat is real. People who use radioactive compunds & nerve agents to assasinate people are unlikely to be baulk at arranging 'unexplained' loss in gas supplies to Germany.

I thought the Germans had fallen out quite badly with the Russians....which would make German reliance on Russian gas difficult IMO. I suspect the Americans are saying "we told yaw'll so"
Having the Russians gaslight you when you disagree with their antics isn't sustainable long term.

"I think the Vaccines are not working well against delta. I even heard a report yesterday that delta could be considered a new disease. With all this in the media it does not bode well for oil or the world economy. Also I think OPEC are to quick to increase production there for it will be hard to go over a oil price of $75."
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SeaKing, I suspect the situation is more nuanced.
I heard that some of the vaccines are holding up protection against Delta variant surprisingly well....considering the virus has mutated quite a lot since the vaccines were created. But the need for an autumn booster (also including flu?!) looks likely.

Also didn't OPEC refuse Biden's request to increase oil production only last week, so they are being surprisingly restrained IMO. I suspect the members quite like high oil prices & would like it to remain so for as long as poss.

PS someone told me that Chinese vaccine isn't working against Delta, but the source isn't reliable & I haven't verified myself....(Chinese whispers!!)

So they have increasing amounts of cash - 'helped' by the IPO - the question is, what are they going to do with it?
Presumably they also have buy-back shares in treasury.

Spike, I seem to remember not too long ago (current management) 'suggested' that 15% of profits could be returned to shareholders in dividends. Unfortunately the chances of that are a big fat zero. Too much financing to pay interest on, too many places to spend any dollar profits, too many processing plants to build.....was that a Jason Donovan song??!!

"What happened to the U.K having any self dignity or patriots"
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Wolfy, to some extent it's realpolitiks. We no longer have a big stick to threaten people with....oh, I forgot about the two aircraft carriers which are really big sitting targets. But we like to pretend we set the moral standard whilst kowtowing to dictators (if it is in the national interest).

Wolfy, thanks for the background on Qatar/BARC/Libya deal. I didn't realise it was such a tangled web.
Barclays has a history of mixing business with politics. I suppose it can be quite profitable. Although some of the characters they get into bed with (in the past) don't seem very 'nice'. But I suppose they are bankers not saints....I wonder if Barclays have big plans for Afghanistan now?!

Barclays found another way to keep the doors open (& on their hinges) during the banking crisis. I can see the argument from both sides - although I don't know the full facts tbh, Barclays should have declared the facts about the Arab money (although they were 'unusual' times) BUT the British taxpayer wasn't asked to bail them out (Barclays found another possibly 'almost' legal way to get the cash).
I agree....Lloyds & RBS we are not!

Unfortunately all these slightly shady back room deals set the tone & the standard for Barclays staff to follow....leading to years (decades!?) of lawsuits & compensation. Hopefully....hopefully, those dark days are behind Barclays and they can concentrate on the boring stuff of generating profits to pay lots of nice dividends instead of acting like some dictator led rogue state where any crazy idea is sanctioned for a short term gain....but leading to long term pain & humiliation.

I was sort of hoping that Bramson would inject some life (upward momentum) into the SP....the way he tried to do it stinks however but seems to be acceptable (legal). However ultimately it is 'big' people using their money & influence to enrich themselves.

Recently there have been 'short squeezes' where groups of small private investors try to force up a share that has been shorted (costing hedge funds to sell for huge losses)....similarly there are claims that this has been manipulated by a few people (again for profit). Who can you trust nowadays?
It is getting more difficult to tell the 'good' guys from the 'bad'....if we ever really could.

I was sort of hoping that Bramson would inject some life (upward momentum) into the SP....the way he tried to do it stinks however but seems to be acceptable (legal). However it is 'big' people using their money & influence to enrich themselves.

"....since the price of fuel in the UK is substantially taxes rather then the price of heavy or other refined oil, consumers will vote with their feet. £5 might happen, but very temporarily."
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Lots of valid counter-points were made over the weekend to 'going green'. Some blame shifting (other people should have less children) to sensible debate (how are we gonna pay for it). The above 'dilemma' is symptomatic (IMO) because politicians set the tax level for fuel (the escalator) in order to influence demand but people are 'odd' & they tend to get quite irate if something they use quite a lot of & is central to their lifestyle verges on unaffordable or reduces the cash in their pocket significantly...then politicians who know they will soon face the electorate do a policy u-turn or water it down to being almost pointless. So which has greater political importance....getting voted in OR preparing the world for a 'green' future. Answers on a postcard to No. 10 Downing street c/o Carrie Johnson nee Symonds!!

"...how do we choose the 2.3b to die ?!!!!"
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Logan's Run.....simples!!

Will be interesting to see what happens with trade & political dealings between USA & China. There is a possible tension looming there,.... legacy of Trump perhaps & his MAGA mantra. China however has lots of tentacles in other countries around the world & can do business there...so unless things get really nasty China's economy will 'probably' continue to prosper & remain unstoppable.

"Don’t forget everyone shares don’t go up in a straight line and LG are no exception."
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But some shares can go up in a straight line for a surprisingly long time!!...not LGEN I think.

"As for Amanda Staveley and Edward Bramson, both tarred with the same brush i.m.h.o. i'm afraid. Ultimately they both tried to get richer off the back of Barclays and thankfully both had to swallow their pride, post their falls."
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I'm not sure I know the exact stories behind those two people but weren't they attempting slightly different things?....apart from trying to enrich themselves by dealing with BARC (but we all are 'presumably' also trying that!)

Wasn't Bramson trying to get onto the BARC board to change policy & increase returns for investors (albeit in a bullying way). Staveley I thought was involved in the murky deal with the arabs to secure funds during the financial crisis to shore up the business....didn't she demand a ludicrous payment for her 'help' & BARC told her where to go.

Very shady backroom deals where people are promised lots for their silence...typical BARC. God I love them, they ain't boring. Is it true that Donald Trump is going to be the next CEO?!? (joke)

Please correct any false or simplistic assumptions.

SP fell quite a bit on Friday....any idea why?

".....but oil is always going to be needed."
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Yes of course. But igniting the stuff to move from A to B will 'probably' become a thing of the past (for the majority of applications). So petrol stations 'probably' wont be the money making machine they once were (I can charge up while shopping at the supermarket or having a hair cut). Can Shell profitable transition to a 'lower' carbon environment and can they shrewdly invest the remaining 'few' years of significant petro-dollars in businesses that will thrive in the future? Big questions.

Adverts showing some squeaky clean teenage graduate creating designs to convert traditional petrol stations into flashy new electric charging points are 'probably' just PR to show that the management are taking climate change seriously. The important & critical decisions will be seen elsewhere.
Oil men like to see black stuff gushing out of the ground or gas 'flaming' from platforms....new management might need a slightly different mindset & skillset to prepare for the near future. Perhaps that partly explains why the SP is subdued despite significant profits at SHell....perhaps the market is just waiting for the dividend to get back near to pre-covid levels!!