Member Info for bald_eagle

The UK going to hell in a handcart but Glencore keeps rising....result!
I'm hoping that Glencore dividend offsets the increase in my fuel bill...fat chance!

"Whilst we might not see a 3rd Q dividend (although they should) ...."
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Have Barclays ever issued a quarterly dividend?

Porsche1946, you may be right. I doubt all of your 'predictions' will come to pass (there were so many) but you may be closer to the truth than many would like. You're not related to Nostradamus are you?!

Definitely it's a case of who you know, not what you know.
Amanda Staveley is going from strength to strength....one of Newcastle United's new directors with a 10% stake in the club!!

Republicans would cut off their own hand if they thought it would hurt the democrats & Biden. It is hard to see how America can provide the leadership the world needs when their politics is a basket case. It would be quite funny if it wasn't so serious.

"Customers will learn not to "love" the 2-year fixed price contracts that they agree to around now with sky high prices,..."
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I'd be surprised if many are signing up to fix price contracts at current levels...most 'sensible' people will sit on the standard variable rate to see what happens. If gas prices remain high into next year then politicians will feel voters anger when they get their heating bills....especially if we have a cold spell. The government can play chicken with the energy markets for so long but squeaky bum time on the leather upholstery of the ministerial Jag isn't a good combination,...the gov will blink first and intervene. Taxpayer picks up the bill...problem solved!!

COP26 may propose a levy on gas....one couldn't make it up!!

Just listening to radio 4 and a guy from a small utility company has large numbers of customers on his books on standards variable plan (price capped). They pay 65p per therm but currently it is 213p per therm. The company is hedged until January. So whoever supplies the hedged gas is going to lose serious money over next few months.
The problem doesn't become really acute for the company until January next year. Highest usage for heating is Jan/Feb, just when their hedging ends. Unless cost of gas falls they won't survive because standard variable price capping isn't due to change until April.
The market seem broken but these are unusual circumstances. Is this the new normal?
Note to Shabbi, the new Secretary of State for Energy?!...Kwasi didn't last long.

It had me thinking, a lot of companies have hedged their energy costs or have fixed price contracts with low unit costs, so they are protected (for the time being) but whoever underwrote those contracts must be losing bucketloads of cash. Presumably that could in part be Shell that has to supply gas at well below current cost.
When the fixed price deals come to an end things will rebalance, but in the meantime someone has to pick up the tab. Unless gas prices fall back towards the long term average things are going to get really difficult for the UK.
There seems to be a form of panic buying - fuel crisis anyone!? - with the Chinese 'apparently' willing to pay any price for tankers of LNG to turnaround enroute to head for China.

SP holding above 190p is a major milestone but of course we want even more....198.7p here we come!!

It looks like he has used any profits gained from sales to reduce the amount he has invested....and divided that sum by the number of shares he has left.
I'm not sure the tax man uses the same approach....but it's a nice feeling.
If you buy some shares and sell half when they double, effectively the remaining shares haven't cost you a penny.

What's that bird that sticks its head in the sand when danger approaches? I reckon Andy King has a stuffed one on his desk to remind him of his solution to global warming. Doing nothing is 'unfortunately' no longer an option, we have apparently left it 'almost' too late. Even Boris seems to agree....for the time being!
Green technologies are also potentially lucrative businesses to be in and hopefully Shell will lead the way.

MrA, even in the supermarket/grocery sector Morrison's is not typical....I believe the American hedge funds were interested because they own most of the store bricks & mortar. The Yanks will probably do some accounting trick to lease back the stores and sell off the real estate for vast sums. I loved it when the Glasers bought Man U and got the company to take out a loan to pay themselves back, brilliant!
If foreign investors spot an undervalued asset they will pounce. Same with entertainment businesses, the yanks (Netflix/Amazon/etc) have the money IF they identify an asset they want.
Our technology companies have all been sold to foreign investors....we are not afraid of selling our crown jewels. Maybe BARC will go that way one day but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

Imagine what BARC profits would be if base rate was 3.5%, which it was July 2003. Ahhh, halcyon days!!

It was in the news yesterday...maybe just after the markets closed.

However, it isn't going to make GSK any profits - or perhaps very small profits. They spent 700m (dollars or pounds) developping the vaccine which will be written off. They will also supply the vaccine at effectively cost (cost plus 5%). So it isn't a money spinner.
More importantly it will save 100,000 of lives in sub-saharan Africa - assuming it is rolled out en masse.

"I did read from various sources that speculation of a small incremental rate hikes being brought forward for commencement within HY1 of 2022 now looked a possibility."
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Mr A, you have some good points I sort of agree with, it is just a matter of probability & the impact of BARC's SP. A small base rate increase is likely quite soon. The BoE will want to increase it a little bit (from effectively zero) to give it ammunition to fight inflation (if inflation becomes deep seated). But I'm not sure interest rates would rise to levels that would substabtially benefit BARC's profits...but every little would help I suppose.
The 'problem' is that the BoE seems to rely on interest rates almost exclusively to tackle inflation. At current base rate level we are extremely vulnerable to inflation with no mechanism to control it (perhaps they will find other ways to dampen inflation).....although the PM's comments on higher wages mush be causing Rishi to pull his beautifully coiffured hair out!!

Your comments on M&A is also valid although you started talking about the banking sector but had Morrisons as an example. I agree that Chinese & Americans have 'cash to burn' and would like to "solidify them into something more tangible." but I'm not sure the banking sector is probably high on their wish list....love to be proven wrong!

"I own a and b and the a actually pay a better dividend."
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Is that before or after tax?
I thought 'generally' if one is a UK resident the 'B' shares were the preferred option.

Mr A, I saw your tongue in cheek suggestions as to why the banking sector 'jumped' today:
a) “Leaked” news of a better than predicted Q3?
b) B of E Base Rate increase earlier than expectedl?
c) Potential Mergers and Acquisitions in the Sector?

I'm not sure I understand all of the above, apart from searching for an answer when none is obvious. Barc's 'leaked' q3 results would not impact the whole sector. A base rate hike is far far in the future IMO given the state of the economy. And M&A in UK banking is news to me....the Yanks & the Chinese prefer something else (IMO).

Perhaps this is just the equivalent of an Indian Summer....before a cold la Nina winter!!

I thought that Strang(e) man suggested 198.7p was the next hurdle?...after that it's plain sailing..."within a day or two"...to 216p (or perhaps "longer term")!
Personally I'm not so sure the elastic band (bungee) has been severed and the tension will be wanting to drag us back. But I'm happy to be proven wrong...more than happy!!

Only a few weeks (days!?) ago people were wondering if it would reach £15 before end of year - almost impossible according to some - and now speculation is rife for a bumper Christmas for Shell holders (even if there is nothing on the shelves to buy!!). Amazing how things change in a short time.

"If bettered, our secondary (longer-term or within a day or two!) calculates at 216p."
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Another Strang(e) classic...."Longer-term or within a day or two!"
Basically, it could go up or it could go down!! ....if it goes up it might continue to go up (or it might not)...if it goes down it might continue to go down (or it might not)!!!

Reminds me of something: "And when they were up, they were up. And when they were down, they were down. But when they were only halfway up, They were neither up nor down"

I still prefer the elastic band (bungee cord) analogy!!

"The interest rates have been low for a long time and that’s about to change as is inflation."
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Inflation is on the rise...but politicians & economists are hoping it is a short term rise. They will be reluctant to increase interest rates much whilst their economies are recovering from lockdowns. Perhaps America will lead the way on interest rates.

Isn't there something called stagflation?...although I'm not sure unemplyment is high....we have the jobs, just not the 'skilled' people for those jobs. Perhaps we just need to give everyone a certificate and like the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz we will all suddenly be jobsworthy!!