RE: holding fibs11 Nov 2020 11:25
Research demonstrates share prices cannot be predicted with precision using historical empirical data. Just because that data may be rich in information that information relates generally to historical events and cannot be considered sufficiently reliable to predict future movements as these are governed by different effects, ie, those that have yet to pass.
In contrast, the future price of any share can be comparable to a path of a series of cumulated random numbers. The random-walk theory supports this more and empirical data supports this theory more than the hypothesis of historical data driving the price. Chart reading and prediction whilst interesting therefore presents no real value to investors when 'predicting' future prices and it may be accepted that to 55% figure presented below, if based on any evidence, supports this.
Chartists will continue to maintain their position but research and evidence is strongly stacked against them. Personally, a share price is driven by news and sentiment, both arguably random in their nature but useful drivers to determine which direction a share will travel, but not settle.