Member Info for Auson

hydraides,

We have not even had 1 negative growth quarter yet and we need two in a row to be in recession.

downbutnotout,

Probably was but I bet it was off book so could have been put through from earlier, with Nat gas up 30% today and Brent touching $125 strange to want to sell now at this price.

Just some fag packet calcs.
From End April onwards we have GIC sold 1.39% FMR 1.39% plus Increased Euroclear stock on loan 2.76%
Total 51.26million shares. Average volume I have is 3.168million over 28 trading days not including today so 88.7 million shares traded.

Surfit,

Surely they want to grow the business and then cash out or sell when sufficiently large ? Or not for £3.53 a share

In July 1980, Margaret Thatcher’s government held secret talks with Argentina and proposed a “leaseback” deal, whereby the sovereignty of the islands would be transferred to Argentina but then leased back to Britain.

While ministers were considering the idea, the energy secretary, David Howell, wrote to the foreign secretary, Lord Carrington, on 5 February 1980, saying: “I hope … you will not lose sight of retaining, if at all possible, access for the UK to any oil or gas which might be found in Falkland Island waters.”

He repeated this plea in a letter to Thatcher later that month. The cabinet’s defence and oversea policy committee, which included Thatcher, agreed on 7 November 1980 to seek the islanders’ approval of a leaseback deal.

Ministers noted: “It would be important to make satisfactory arrangements for any oil that might be discovered … Further thought should be given to ways in which the United Kingdom might be guaranteed entitlement to a substantial part of the revenues.”

downbutnotout,

I thought the Brent TA target was $140-$148 ( according to Goldman Sachs )

downbutnotout,

But we mostly sell Brent

I meant we need to be in contango for increased profitability going forwards.

I think for valuation of an Oil producer its more relevant to look at the Brent prices next year and the year after, that its the predicted profitability of the business. At the moment we are in backwardation the futures curve slopes downward, we need to be in backwardation where futures prices are higher than today, so future profits here will be higher.
So Brent spot or front month could in theory drop lower but futures prices increase and the valuation here will increase.
I think the market cap will increase here regardless due to the legacy selling, shorting shenanigans and the deleveraging of net debt position.

I think you would need one of those dial phones with corded microphone to call her, or you could just ask for the operator to patch you through

Plebleens,

Sorry to hear you are done and have taken a loss, do keep an eye on this for when the shorts think its the right value/ time to close.
Best of luck with your future investments.

hydraides,

UK GDP 2021 Q4 +1.3% 2022 Q1 +0.8% so we can't be officially in recession until the end of Q3 or even Q4

Buy Mortimer Buy !!

Muchaboutmoney,

Because we have many other cheaper opportunities ( Zama ) and $1.8b in capex with loans extended to Rockhopper is not appealing right now. It would also blacklist Harbour from ever operating in Argentina, obviously the Israelis don't care and have the military behind them too !

Good .. we don't want or need the spot price running away too high $100 to $130 is going to be rather good for Harbour Energy going forward.

Thunder2040.
Well yes if you look at the futures prices expected to be recieved in 2023 its $105 to $92, in 2024 its $90 to $84
Contract Last Change
Cash (CBY00) 122.84s +
Aug '22 (CBQ22) 117.10 +
Sep '22 (CBU22) 114.01 +
Oct '22 (CBV22) 111.28 +
Nov '22 (CBX22) 108.97 +
Dec '22 (CBZ22) 106.95 +
Jan '23 (CBF23) 105.09 +
Feb '23 (CBG23) 103.39 +
Mar '23 (CBH23) 101.91 +
Apr '23 (CBJ23) 100.57 +
May '23 (CBK23) 98.08s -
Jun '23 (CBM23) 98.26 +
Jul '23 (CBN23) 95.95s -
Aug '23 (CBQ23) 94.96s -
Sep '23 (CBU23) 94.01s -
Oct '23 (CBV23) 93.11s -
Nov '23 (CBX23) 92.23s -
Dec '23 (CBZ23) 92.59 +
Jan '24 (CBF24) 90.44s -
Feb '24 (CBG24) 89.55s -
Mar '24 (CBH24) 88.70s -
Apr '24 (CBJ24) 87.91s -
May '24 (CBK24) 88.40 +
Jun '24 (CBM24) 87.87 +
Jul '24 (CBN24) 85.90s -
Aug '24 (CBQ24) 85.25s -
Sep '24 (CBU24) 84.65s
Oct '24 (CBV24) 84.05s
Nov '24 (CBX24) 83.48s -
Dec '24 (CBZ24) 84.15 +
Jan '25 (CBF25) 82.31s -
Feb '25 (CBG25) 81.78s -
Mar '25 (CBH25) 81.19s -
Apr '25 (CBJ25) 80.67s -
May '25 (CBK25) 80.16s -
Jun '25 (CBM25) 79.71s -
Jul '25 (CBN25) 79.29s
Aug '25 (CBQ25) 78.88s -
Sep '25 (CBU25) 78.48s

Mrasol,

Correct, interesting to note that HURs market cap was once over £1billion

BaysilHope,

Great find, its believable although it does perhaps sound a little too optimistic. I am of the opinion that the rushed through tax proposal was designed to distract from partygate (part of an operation save big dog,)
It will be chalked up as a vote winner over Labour who were suggesting it and everyone will want the £400 off energy bills.
However the most important factor here is how it will be implemented. If the 91% then 80% in subsequent years deduction can be Cap- ex and Op-ex, as it could be argued that these expenditures support production ( which is what the govt. want ) then the vast majority of the 25% will be negated.
Its the uncertainty ( and shorts ) that are hurting our valuation right now.

January24,

Having thought about it I reckon the unusually large U/T was those month end roll over trades from the leverage brokers, spread betters etc.

Not seen a U/T that big on Enquest before !