Member Info for Auson

Denby69,

You must have been a Rupert.

We were told we weren't even allowed to shoot back after being fired upon !

Berkshire has returned 19.8% CAGR over fifty nine years !

P777,

Whilst I agree with your sentiment there will be a large number of 'closed periods here'

Y11-shx,

In 1996 Berkshire Hathaway B stock was $24, today its it is $454

On 27 December 2023 Intel shares were $50.7, yesterday the high was $22.54, today they are $23.24

In July 1995 Intel shares were $9.94

Inflation adjusted $9.94 in 1995 is worth around $20 today

Fogthemogg,

'China's oil imports rose for 19 straight years from 2001, when they were just 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), to 2020 when they hit 10.85 million bpd, the second-highest total on record.'

'Global demand to hit at least 120 mil b/d in 2050

global thirst for liquid fuels increasing from 102.2 million b/d in 2023 to 120.1 million b/d in 2050, "with the potential for it to be higher '

US will not be happy to drain SPR more they have already started to refill

'In May 2022, the Department of Energy did release a purchase plan to refill the SPR, but it only accounted for about 60 million barrels, and it stated that these would be purchased “next year” at lower prices. The DOE noted that it was aiming to encourage U.S. drillers to boost activity now and “lower prices by guaranteeing this demand in the future at a time when market participants anticipate crude oil prices to be significantly lower than they are today.”

This purchase plan essentially introduces a buyer into the market at lower levels, that buyer being the U.S. government, and it potentially holds crude oil prices higher than they would be without the presence of this buyer. Worse yet, if there is an exogenous shock and crude supplies are interrupted, prices may not be lower. The DOE may be forced to buy at whatever market price at the time, or they may delay purchases altogether. Solicited bids from producers are taken well before actual transaction dates, so pricing and timing can cause volatility on their own from a hedging perspective. Refilling the SPR to such a large degree, whatever the timing, may affect an artificial floor in the crude oil market.'

Fogthemogg,

Still waiting on your 'raw data' ?

and thoughts on air travel increases and why the US would be happy to drain the SPR to below 19 days oil consumption at a time its is or could be engaged in fighting against two very large oil producing nations ?

' The Falklands are British and will remain British'

' My uncle nearly lost his life defending the Falklands when his ship was torpedoed'

' I care very deeply about the Falklands.. its personal'

MarkGo,

Thought I was going to have to look up the ratio of paper vs physical in the oil contracts market you beat me to it !

According to CFTC reporting the shorts started increasing on 24 April 2024 the Brent price was around $88, level decreases June to July when Brent dipped down to $76 then increases again to end September when it has eased off a bit by 19,000 contracts, I would call that shorters buying the dip.

'The year 2024 is expected to be a milestone for global passenger traffic recovery as it reaches 9.4 billion passengers, surpassing the year 2019 that welcomed 9.2 billion passengers (102.5% of the 2019 level). Compared to the pre-COVID forecast that predicted 10.9 billion passengers in 2024, the effects of the pandemic represent a potential loss of 13.9%.

The Africa region is expected to have a steadily increasing pattern for the upcoming years, reaching 221 million passengers, or 96.3% of the 2019 level, in the year 2023. The region is forecasted to reach 253 million passengers, or 110.6% of the 2019 level, by the end of 2024. This steady growth is expected to be driven by emerging markets, such as Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

While the Asia-Pacific region is expected to have a substantial jump in passenger traffic in the first half of 2023 along with the ongoing opening of the Chinese market, its recovery is predicted to slow down significantly in the second half of the year due to challenges in overseas tourism and looming economic concerns. By the end of the year, the region is expected to reach 2.9 billion passengers, or 87.3% of the 2019 level. With the uncertainty from both upside and downside factors, the region is expected to reach approximately 3.4 billion passengers, or 99.5% of the 2019 level, in 2024.

Recovery in the Europe region is expected to slow down in the year 2023 and 2024, in contrast to the sharp uptick experienced during its 2022 summer season. By the end of 2023, around 2.3 billion passengers are expected in the region, or 95.5% of the 2019 level. This will further increase in the year 2024 while at a slower pace, to around 2.5 billion passengers, or 101.4% of the 2019 level.

The Latin America-Caribbean region is forecasted to be the first region to surpass its 2019 level. In 2023, the region is estimated to reach 707 million passengers, or 102.9% of the 2019 level. In 2024, the region is expected to welcome 759 million passengers, or 110.5% of the 2019 level. Like the Africa region, emerging markets such as Colombia and Mexico are predicted to drive the region beyond the 2019 level.

The Middle East region was the fastest-recovering market in the year 2022. In the year 2023, the region is predicted to continue its recovery and reach 394 million passengers, or 96.8% of the 2019 level. In 2024, the passenger number is projected to be 429 million, or 105.4% of the 2019 level. This forecast may be impacted by the economic circumstances of neighboring markets.

By the end of 2023, the North America region is estimated to reach near the 2019 level with 2.0 billion passengers, or 99.8% of the 2019 level. While the region showed a strong recovery during 2021 and 2022, driven by domestic travel, its growth for the next couple of years is expected to continue at a slower pace. In the year 2024, passenger traffic in the region is forecasted to reach 2.1 billion passengers, or 103.7% of the 2019 level.'

Global air travel number of flights

2004 23.8million

2014 33 million

2023 36.8million

2024 40.1million ( extrapolated for rest of year)

Fogthemogg,

I am sure the US would be quite happy to drain the SPR right down below 19 days of US oil consumption. They don't need to worry about the Middle East or Russia. Just drain it to try and keep the oil price below $70

Tincan1995,

Exactly if they have managed to buy 1m shares and make it look like they've sold 1m its mission accomplished. The markets are and always have been a great big game of spoof !

Fogthemogg,

'Raw data' such as ... ?

EG777,

It does look that way, however at 16.25 you could buy 100,000 for 13.80p and supposedly at 16.29 just 13 seconds before the close the sell price for 1,000,000 was 13.86p when the day was a wave of selling not buying.

Onsolidground,

Was that you just bought the £393k ?

Leo_IX

Hard to tell but on balance of probability on a day where Brent recovered to hit $81 more likely a buy. I don't think it was thought we get a near 5% drop in Brent today !

Pokerchips,

If the market knows all about the benefits of the new GM account how much revenue will it generate $20m or $200m ?

Pokerchips,

Will they get £5 back again ? Doubtful.

41.74p paid

'The third noteworthy aspect of the process is engagement with the chair and other directors of

investee companies, through face-to-face meetings and voting in general meetings, something

that the firm has done throughout its history. The value of regular engagement becomes

especially clear when investment cases go awry. All companies disappoint their investors’

expectations at some point. The reaction of the stockmarket to such events can be harsh and, in

the firms’ experience, is usually over-done in the short-term. The investment managers are

therefore often inclined to view a profit warning as an opportunity to own more of a company at

a better price. Additional purchases are not, however, undertaken blindly: the investment

manager will engage with directors if poor governance or capital allocation have contributed to

the company’s misstep. The odds of effecting change are improved if Aberforth’s funds

collectively own a significant stake – up to 25% in some limited cases – in a company’s issued share

capital.'