Member Info for Auson

StadiumInvest,

This would imply that spreadbet platforms always hedge customers positions where as they could be happy to take the risk on a Casino style model. Do you not what the size of the spreadbet market is, I'm not sure if it is big enough to make a significant impact compared to professional managed money. I could be wrong here just my initial thoughts.

Mrtibbles,

Whilst I approve of his message there is something that doesn't quite smell right about that Gary guy. He only had his FINRA/ FCA record for 2 years (2010-2012), he said he was a pro trader for 6 years. Then claims to be Citybank's most successful trader negotiating only a $2m bonus ( when the year before the most successful trader at Citibank – Andrew Hall received a $100m bonus.)

A few other points he said 'Traders do not care about the budget, because the budget is not for traders and the budget is not about the economy. The budget is a piece of theatre meant for your consumption. It is a cute moment – a photogenic moment where a multimillionaire can hold up a red box and bribe you with a bit of your money, '

When was Net Debt to Market Cap ever a useful metric ?

I'm getting around 27million shares traded since and including the day we had the 66.7p print. Average price somewhere around 58p gives about £15m. If we assume something like £10m of sells vs £5m of buys that means that £10m has moved the market cap by £103.2m ! Or 10x value sold.

JMAX,

You should already know the answer, its speculation and buying/ selling/ shorting paper contracts.

JMAX,

'Probably never happen' however looking at the direction of travel its a VERY noteworthy contemplation.

1970 World GDP per capita $816

2022 World GDP per capita $12,743

1970 China energy use per capita 2,871kWh

2023 China energy use per capita 33,267 kWh

'Energy use has been growing rapidly in low- and middle-income economies, '

AlmaCogan,

The SETS order book is over 25 years old, thats an eternity in software terms, so its easy to see that complex modern Algo programs could easily exploit weaknesses in the pricing. Someone once pointed out a bank that was doing just that, potentially making around 2+% per week

JMAX,

Current world oil consumption is circa 101.8m bpd. How many million barrels per day do you think the world would consume if world population all had American standard of living hence same oil consumption per capita ?

Oil Prices Bounce Back After Major Selloff

oilprice com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Bounce-Back-After-Major-Selloff.html

JMAX,

Granted Brent could bounce off $65 although it looks to me like it already has bounced off $70.70, but as you keep saying its not where its going short term its where its going to end up which is somewhere above $80 or somewhere well above $100 if they block the Straitz of Hormuz which I think is over due.

Aiminvestors,

As you prefer to change the subject, I will too. Here is something re lower oil prices and costs re FID

'I'm in the business in the Permian, good acreage can still be profitable at $20-30/bbl. If prices collapse, service company's suffer and in order to survive work for rock bottom prices to keep the lights on until recovery. So your capex per well plummets, thus keeping economics of DC&E profitable. Right now average prices are about $800/ft of lateral, in a crunch time the same well will cost $550-600/lateral foot. Best time to drill wells is in low price environment, just sit and wait to frac them when prices recover. '

GoCPI,

Agree with you there , the odds of 50bps cut have now increased.

Aiminvestors,

I was here long before Harbour, Premier were good to go with Sealion but I think they needed UKEF, heck they couldn't even defend their own company and listing hence being fed to the sharks ie Harbour via ARCM !

'FCA fines ARCM £873118 for breaches of short selling . The hedge fund's disclosure breach relates to its 2020 short position in Premier Oil. In October 2020, the FCA announced a fine of £873,118. '

JMAX,

That is for 2025 for this year its $60

'At 30 June 2024, Tullow's hedge portfolio provides downside protection for c.60% of forecast production entitlements in the second half of 2024 with c.$60/bbl weighted average floors across all hedging instruments; for the same period, c.24% of forecast production entitlements is capped at weighted average sold calls of c.$112/bbl. A second tier of capped upside exists through three-way collars on 15% of the total hedged volume with weighted average sold calls of $83/bbl, however, potential hedging losses on three-way collars are limited to a $10/bbl range due to the presence of purchased calls, allowing re-participation in the upside if oil prices rise above $93/bbl on a weighted average basis.'

Sound familiar ?

'In 1923, the king signed a concession with Holmes allowing him to search for oil in eastern Saudi Arabia. Eastern and General Syndicate brought in a Swiss geologist to evaluate the land, but he claimed that searching for oil in Arabia would be “a pure gamble”.[2] This discouraged the major banks and oil companies from investing in Arabian oil ventures.'

Re Brent price we tested this bottom on 13 Dec 2023, if it bounces from here it would be VERY positive. ie double bottom.

S&P Global have Brent at $86 for 2024 and $80 for 2025

EIA have Brent at $86 average for 2025

Goldman have Brent range $75 to $90 in 2025

$50 Oil ain't coming but I don't think it would make too much difference to Navitas as I believe Israel wants energy independence like USA

DampSquid1,

That was quite funny, but not as laughable as $50 Brent.

S&P Global have Brent at $86 for 2024 and $80 for 2025

EIA have Brent at $86 average for 2025

Goldman have Brent range $75 to $90 in 2025

I guess the caveat with shcitybank is the see $50 Brent if OPEC don't cut. Of course OPEC will cut !

DampSquid1,

I quite liked this part of the article 'Citi has issued such dire forecasts before, and it has been wrong before. '

oilprice com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Discusses-Delaying-Supply-Boost-After-Oil-Price-Crash.html