Member Info for Auson

I don't think we will see SLB make a bid, they have large debt ( which they want to reduce ) and are loss making.
Rye Bay are clearly using the weakness to bet on a nice big fine coming our way, but they can't actually know anything as its not been determined. Lets hope that Asfari's donations to the Conservative party do the trick !

Pokerchips,

Agreed this is what I was getting at yesterday with the SETS order book vs Algo comment. They can play it like a fiddle. They did this on Premier Oil for many months.

Or perhaps having called this a screaming buy from the 40p range all the way down he thought he had better keep quiet. Hes also been promoting Premier Oil at share prices around 80p+.
If you ask me its a good job we are off his 'list'
Here is an interesting reply from him I just read in response to someones question re Navitas and other farm in news due.

'probably just the export credit for the time being.'
Cheers
Malcy

Just from what I have seen else where Blackrock tend to close their shorts earlier than others, they are in profit already so they may be the first to 'break ranks'
The concern for the shorters here has to be that a Hedge Fund or fund like the Qatar Investment Fund might decide to take a stake. They also must be aware of the risk of a speculative takeover approach.

20-Jan-21 16:20:40 9.90 999,989 Buy* 9.23 9.31 99.00k O
20-Jan-21 16:36:21 9.40 100,703 Buy* 9.23 9.31 9,466 A

Pokerchips,

Yes but the MMs know the big orders they have each taken and need to fill.

Pokerchips,

You fail to mention the role of the Market maker in all this buying and selling, They also like to turn a profit so are happy to accumulate or be short a stock. Looks like we have all of these market makers covering Petrofac.
THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOT N.V. Market Maker(MME) Broker/Dealer
J.P. Morgan Cazenove Limited Market Maker(MME) Broker/Dealer
CREDIT SUISSE SEC (EUROPE) LTD Market Maker(MME) Broker/Dealer
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd Market Maker(MME) Broker/Dealer JPMS
BMO Capital Markets Limited Market Maker(MME) Broker/Dealer
Citigrp Global Mkt UK Equities Market Maker(MME) Broker/Dealer CITI
Merrill Lynch International Market Maker(MME) Broker/Dealer
UBS AG Market Maker(MME)
Winterflood Securities Ltd

TempleofDoom,

The same aforementioned also reported a large short position in Debenhams whilst at the same time having built up a holding sufficient to zero said large short position. It was all declared at the end and I am not saying there was any wrong doing just knowing how to 'play' the system.

Are we implying that the SETS order book is perfect and advanced Algos are NOT able to manipulate it ?

Ironhide,

They were buying back in December and the first half of Jan !

BenAlder,

I doubt thats true as according to the last RNS they still hold over 3%

Pokerchips,

Probably just all the brokers nominee holdings.

Rye Bay Capital are a tiddler Assets under management is only £110 million ( have borrowed 2.98% here )

Tosca Fund Assets under management £4000 million ( holding 6.53% here )

Whos got the firepower again ?

Pokerchips,

Enterprise value of just £585 million looks too attractive for a takeover, there is your reason for it to have gone up.

I thought the probable fine was priced in some time ago.

Ovets,

I think the award will either be a) Sizeable
or b) No award at all ( perhaps with costs RKH paid returned )

The total stock on loan here was 11.94% at end Nov 2020 and 11.21% end of Dec 2020 meaning 0.73% loaned short stock had been bought back over the month of Dec . On shorttracker at begining of January 2021 there was approx 8.32% of stock short reducing to 7.07% before the SFO statement. Meaning that the shorts were closing and were buying back in the 140-160 + range.

Givingthelowdown,

Hes a company owner not a trader..besides its pretty hard to sell $120 million of shares.
Hopefully this will remove some of the markets concerns re his sale.

rossannan,

Correlation and causation are very different things

TigerByTheTail,

Do you think that Silver is likely to outperform Gold through out 2021 ?