Member Info for Atanasoff

A green stripe. What a surprise. Let me guess - I'm horrible with all my facts. Everything is rosey and if we ignore everything bad - like the fact that the current facility had to introduce basic ISO standards to squeeze as much capacity out of a facility the board said wasn't "adequate". Stuff like that.

All the facts are in the RNS. All the facts are in my post. You can choose to accept them or believe in magic fairy dust. I dot care either way. For me this is just fun. For the green stripe gambling addict it means the loss of life savings. Who is likely to have the agenda?

From the responses Captain is making I am assuming many are still bleating about CNSLs record of growth as announced in the previous trading update.

As my analysis showed at the time it was largely smoke and mirrors. This was because of the lack of governance in production facilities which meant that yields were significantly down. In English, that means they couldn't invoice (if you don't ship you don't invoice and you don't get paid).

This meant that instead of carrying around a £1m order book into the next financial period as they normally do, they carried £2.4million. As stated when announcing a £2.5m order book in the trading update:

"The current and forecasted orders (my note: £2.5m) are no longer able to be fulfilled before the year end, but will contribute to a stronger than expected opening order book for FY24."

What is the headline constantly being used? Likely this one:

Revenue increased 44% to £4.9m (H1 2022: £3.4m).

This "increase" was purely from Footprint. Food Detective is stagnant as stated in the RNS and confirmed by Jag in call.

So, take the additional circa £1.4m carried due to production yield/governance issues off the sales and you're actually looking at £3.5 million. A c £100K change from H1 2022. Even they state in the Trading Update Sept 23 that the increase was due to improved yields on FoodPrint.

Remember that due to improvements margin has recovered but then costs increased (excluding one offs) by £400,000 in this period. This is important to note for anyone with a historic perspective of ODX.

The board also stated in the update:

"H2 is expected to remain strong, although in the absence of any further backlog to fulfill, is expected to be slightly lower than H1 FY24"

In 2022 sales were £8.5 million

In 2023 sales were £7.5 million (a 12% drop and at the bottom of forecast)

Do you spot it? H2 traditionally produces higher revenue. H2 2022 for example was £5.1m.

To make this simple: H2 will be under £5m meaning the company is not expected to generate more than £10 million in a year. In fact, they admit they won't. Realistically we are going to be looking at a range of £8 to 9.5million and another loss with substantial cost increases due to "headwinds" and higher salary costs. This means that EBITDA will be neutral or negative. Again.

In other words a company with significant challenges in an increasingly competitive market making no progress except slightly recovering from the disaster of last FY. The news on the other items of jam will be of interest and I am sure many will crow on the "increase" in revenue. But it is very thin for anyone interested in this stock beyond the simpletons headlines.

Don't say you weren't warned. DYOR.

Third time lucky.

The RNS repeats what often happens. A mild piece of activity gets reported (input). No outputs are reported because they don't have any to crow about. This is designed to soften markets up for when outputs will be reported. Which will be soon.

I know this share better than anyone and it happens time and time again.

Announcing a webinar is not exactly earth shattering and is seen as "doing the job". The content of the webinar and appearances should be concerning but I'm not going to waste my time explaining why.

Don't say you were warned. DYOR etc etc.

Are the idiots all excited captain? Havent counted the green stripes up but more posts than trades.

As I said last night - volume is pitiful. Easy to pump and dump for the small time loser. May be a good time for those that listened to a stranger on the internet to get out unscathed before the inevitable happens although I'm almost wishing this does get to 4p just see the hysteria when the board dilute the stock to hell again.

After the ramp what comes next? Well obviously those deep underwater reporting the facts while spouting utter rubbish about fake bids.

The fact is that this stock is suffering from poor liquidity. A small ramp and a little bit of social media interest to sucker in new mugs hasn't changed the fundamentals.

Not even enough volume to sustain a weekend away.

# Trades 9

Vol. Sold 44,208

Sold Value £1.43k

Vol. Bought 3

Bought Value £N/A

Losers

Captain

That is great news. Many thanks. Erskine makes the paranoid gambling conspiracy theorist "carer" look like a towering intellect (which it isn't). Shame his spam is allowed as it is patently false information designed to deceive the easy to manipulate. Blocking the scot loser was a great move.

Have a great weekend.

Three green stripes - must have hit a nerve.

Poor wee boy.

Is the lying liar Erskine up to its old tricks?

You can smell the desperation emanating from his Scottish squat.

Price lower today simply die to spread changing . The fall will come soon enough .

No one has doubled there money on this stock except the directors who realise what mugs the small gambler who buy this dog are.

Low energy day:

# Trades 12

Vol. Sold 68,993

Sold Value £2.26k

Vol. Bought 35,946

Bought Value £1.22k

Seems to be following the trend leading up to the trading statement RNS . I can't be bothered but some may want to short this if they believe what normally happens next will happen.

Or don't. Either way. It would be funny the directors diluting the stock yet again as soon as it hits 4p. (The shareholders voted for the directors to have this power without needing approval believe it or not.

Welcome to the party suckers.

Nope - it’s your money. Hope you cash out on a small margin. If you don’t then just wait. You will end up like all the losers that have held and keep averaging down.

Cannot wait for the end of year accounts. The burn will be magnificent.

Sucker

Pot kettle old boy.

If people are interested in this stick they should keep their powder dry until the year end RNS which should be here in the next few weeks.

What we’ve seen this last few days is a simple pump and dump.

MIKODX

Tell me you've never sold a business without telling me you've never sold a business.

If you read all that (and there is more as I know this stock like the back of my hand) and still believe it is a good investment I can only laugh.

This stock went to 3.3p last year before disappointing results. Guess what is going to happen?

Just £10k traded today. Not worth a bean and no sign of anything the rampers are saying. The price is only up due to the spread increasing.

If you're a sucker invest. You will be in good company.

Forget the ramping. You may be reading this because someone you don't know tipped it on twitter/x. Some of you have jumped in. At least you can satisfy yourself that you're as clueless as the long term holders, who, despite the despertae ramping are all massively down.

Here are some facts for you.

1) The company have consistently under performed since 2017 with losses recorded every year since

2) The company have only managed to stay afloat by selling off company assets and diluting the stock

3) They won a contract during Covid but never delivered any approved product. The only role they did have was packaging for others.

4) They didn't realise, because they didnt issue a RNS, that the contracts stage 2 was never actioned

5) What the directors did do is sell a large part of their holdings when the stock was at the top.

6) They failed to provide correct paperwork for the test they had developed but did manage to spend all the money the taxpayer gave them on vanity projects and bonuses.

7) After a shareholder revolt they had a fire sale of their "Crown Jewels" which kept the show on the road.

8) On first glance they have a healthy balance sheet but the cash burn, although reduced is still significant.

9) Due to an abortive attempt to moving to larger premises they are now stuck in premises they have to vacate in 2025 and were described as not fit for purpose. This limits product output

10) They finally got ISO accredited for manufactoering and hired a new director to try and get production as efficient as possible within the limitations outlined above.

11) The CFO (who is a specialist in M&A) walked out and joined a competitor. (Ask yourself - if a business was being bought or offered why would the M&A specialist walk?) This CFO has not been replaced.

12) A long standing issue with the board is a lack of accountability and governance. See 11 for details.

13) The board have said the accounts due will show yet another loss.

14) The good sales growth reported in the first 6 months was an illusion following research. They had £2.5m in backlog sales (see 9 and 10) which when we track across the last 5 years means that £1.5 m could be attributed to production issues in the previous accounting period. In simple terms means the figures looked good due to previous failures but are not going to be maintained (because the backlog is clear).

15) The government are seeking £2.5m back which I feel is unlikely. However, talk of substantial counter claims are for the birds. The board are basically asking the tax payer for money due to their mismanagement and profligency

16) The CEO has admitted that the UK is now saturated. Only so many people want testing. The UK is the number one market for them.

17) New tests competing in the growth area of the sector have been delayed and will be bought in through a partnership.

18) The app they launched was developed by a now defunct business. One of the devs seems to have moved to them bu

Some have zero self awareness on here. It’s hilarious seeing some of the quotes from the green striped losers.

Assume that gem came from the horse gambling, conspiracy theorist “carer”?

The very definition of dunning Kruger effect

Captain

I don't think many realise just how tight it got for ODX. Access to debt is a key indicator to a companies health. Having an overdraft facility showed that NatWest believed it was a high risk. This lack of cash flow, despite getting so much money from the tax payer, shows just how bad things were. It also explains the lack of R&D and other core activity. It appears to be surviving by the skin of its teeth.

The cash injection came just in time.

It won't the next time. This company has nowhere to hide. They need a run of good luck - a settlement for the tax payer money, traction in the US (no RNS since the original), the new test to pass through all testing and get approvals, sorting a new site (lease is only until next year and we've been here before).

No assets to sell off. Dilution is looking a slim possibility. It is down to sales. Not just revenue because that is vanity. Profitable sales.

It's a fascinating watch. I am looking forward to the end of year projected financials. The UK is saturated (as Jaz admitted) so it will be interesting to see US, China and EMEA sales and if the cash burn has been halted or slowed further (some progress made in the first 6 months). I know what my gut feeling is but time will tell.

Bognor

You seem confused. I realise this is a default state so let me create a easy to read list

1) Market size. The market size for baked beans in the UK is huge. 100 metric tonnes per annum. This is great for baked bean sellers but not so great for those that are selling kidney beans. CNSL are in a huge market but they dont have the products in the growth sector. That is why they are trying to play catch up and bring in a gut test. It is why they are partnering for this instead of developing their own test. This will mean a lower margin and they will be playing catch up. Another analogy - when Apple launched the iPod the market exploded. BUT many in the growing MP3 market just didn't have the resources and left it too late to party. Anyone remember Audio Highway ? No. Thought not. Can you see the commercial problems? Spouting "huge market" is a stupid as saying the company is being bought out because a few thousand shares have changed hands.

2) The sell price dropped to 1.6p. The buy was different because it suffers from a liquidity problem. No one doubled their money. If they say they did they are lying. The FACT is that this stock has bubbled around the 2-3.6p price range for over a year now. It has gone no where and has no sign it will.

3) Valuation. This is a tricky one. Is Tesla worth its market cap? Not a chance. Sentiment has driven it. But back in the low reaches of penny shares the story is different. It can be a traders playground where zombie companies are traded actively and the gullible culled. But if you want to look at true value then you look at EBITDA. You look at risk and market potential. The last company I sold went for a premium but the valuation was still wedded to reality. Forget the money in the bank. No one buys a business for that as it is often taken out or is seen as part of general operations. It doesn't add much materially compared to those other elements. CNSL has many negatives that will count against its value. Sort sales, burn rate and settle with the tax payer and it has the potential to jump. But this is a company that has constantly over promised and under delivered. The market cap is fair imo for the risk. In the meantime never forget what can happen if this goes above 4p. From an investors perspective they would be prudent to wait and see.

Captain - forgot about Dam ! haha. Remember the spamming about the contract being the second coming? haha. No one listened even when I highlighted the limitations and the likely outcome (which was correct). Reminded me of the nonsense with NNN when they did the deal with the AC filter company. Just nuts and showed a basic misunderstanding of maths.

Top of the morning to you captain.

You’re correct - despite getting some visibility on chats for mugs not many have been sucked in.

Low energy again.

I wonder how many know the trading statement showing an annual loss (assuming the board are correct) is soon here.

Didn’t the same thing happen last year?

Comical.

A small number of buys thanks to a twitch of interest from someone pretending to give insider stock tips. If you're one then a warm welcome to the crab pot.

Like many other inverbrates that are easy to trap you are now holding a stock in a loss making business you know zero about. Well done you. Some of you may even be holders and "averaged down" based on zero evidence of anything changing.

I wonder if Erskine was able to get out? Based on the number of green stripes that looks unlikely - even the paranoid conspiracy "carer" isn't that prolific.

Anyhoo, just a tip to any newbie - do some reading, dont take the word of someone promising riches on twitter/X. Start with asking what can happen if the price ever goes back up above 4p? Look at the price history over the last 18 months.

After reading all the RNS objectively (I suggest you start in 2017 when this was ODX for a full picture and don't prove yourself a fool by only reading the bullet points at the top) you may reach the same conclusion I have. Thankfully none of you have put in serious money so cutting your losses won't be as painful as say some idiot trapped with hundreds of thousands of "golden tickets".

IF they get settlement with the tax payer that may help in the short term. BUT the board have said in writing that this FY will be loss making. Many of the things they said would happen haven't or we haven't been given any updates. This is one where you buy on concrete evidence, not a hunch.

(shorting it if you can really be bothered is not a bad shout).

Bonne chance and don't buy a Tesla just yet.