RE: Happy days23 Aug 2024 14:58
Captain
Ive given my views on the IGG tests. I think what many miss are the following:
1) It is a one off. As we age our tolerances to some foods change but in general a IGG test is a one or two hit wonder. If you suffer from a food intolerance and you choose to put down your healing crystals and ask you homeopath to recommend a igg test then you will likely only do it once. When you know, you know, right?
(Note - this is one of the reasons why the (rubbish) app is so important - it could lock in a patient and be used with other tests (which they dont have yet) to provide an holistic view of general health and well being. The issue here is they are way behind the curve and dont have enough money to catch up) .
2) The market is finite. 33 Million Americans and around 3 million have food allergies. This is different to intolerance and the science is showing we are becoming more sensitive to food (most UPF isn't actually food in my view but that is a different subject). However, you have to look at the realistic market potential. Then take a look at market shares etc. It is pretty basic math and not one LtH has done it. I don't think CNSL have either. Most look at the whole market and this inflates the opportunity significantly depending on the metrics you use.
3) The market is fundamentally changing. To combat issues 1 and 2 the market is shifting to gut microbiome tests and diet tracking. Remember in 2023 this was going to be launched under white label? Then nothing. No mention of it in the full accounts. Even you know who agreed with me that it was an issue. The upshot is that without jumping on this, yet to be proven, science, they are going to be left behind.
I had this as a "hold" and still do (only a sell for the reasons previously given related to the low quality of Lth). However, as I repeat I am not sure if they have the time or the resources to turn the ship in the direction it needs to go. At least now they have some good people on board.
Weird isn't it, how a bit of research helps you understand the stock? One Lth didn't even know what site produced what. It's staggering.