Member Info for Atanasoff

Digging deeper - and it isn't great.

Cash - They started the FY with 5,115,000. End of FY? 2,943,000 Don't worry, I don't expect an apology.

Risk - They have one client that makes up 16% of revenue. That is astonishing and a big risk.

Growth - The growth, inflated by the roll over from 22/23 is "fuelled by our direct-to-consumer channels". They have reached saturation in the UK channel. Having a direct B2C model and a channel model rarely works. B2C means more margin but it also is limited in scope, especially for a niche product.

Food Detective - Sales are down !

R&D - They are spending less. £100K in fact. They also spent less on sales and marketing. Neither of those things is good news.

Lease Liabilities have increased by £130K

Assets excluding cash and deposits is just £1million

Dispute - "the Directors acknowledge that there is a risk that a repayment of some or all of this amount may be required, the timing and quantum of which is uncertain." (to be fair they have to say this as it is a risk. However, they have not made any provision in the accounts for this. If the new government task force - something I warned they would create - wants quick wins - which every government does - then the pressure to settle will be great. Let's say they have to pay back half of it. That would put significant strain going forward. More than that and they are done for. Until this is resolved either way the business is all but unsellable without taking a massive haircut.

A picture of incompetence runs throughout. A sales process that doesn't have anything as basic as a CRM indicates a laissez faire attitude - no wonder sales development is poor. The fact they were hand applying labels is frankly appalling (a machine has increased efficiency by 66%). The new COO couldn't have come at a better time.

I could go on - (share capital is worth a look) but thought it useful to pick out key elements for consideration.

If you expect 10p I have a bridge to sell you.

Your problem calderkate is that you’re not objective. I told you a long time ago that your emotional attachment blinds you. You spend every day here posting the same thing.

I warned you about royalties as an example. I told you that a multi million pound counter claim was for the birds. You didn’t listen. I was right.

If you want some good news - production is good. They also have a stronger board. Jag is the weak link now whereas 18 months ago the 3 directors were a liability. I have also said of you recall that they are on the right path strategically. My caveat was that I didn’t know of they had the right people and enough time and resources to deliver.

I think they will sell. They are still talking about new markets (this time the EU and still US). M&A activity at the moment is insane and loads of money is sloshing around the system. I’m not sure who would buy (I can only think of two companies) and I don’t believe that anyone is currently buying shares up (volumes are too low).

Time will tell but if you want to stem your losses you may want to remove the blinkers. I do this for fun - I have no skin in the game so are more detached than most.

Anthony - no. Deposits and cash is £5.3m

Actual cash is £2.94m

Read the P&L - thank me later.

Anyone believing these are good results shouldn’t be doing anything in business except stacking shelves in Aldi.

For anyone that has taken a long term interest in ODX this is history repeating itself.

Talk about change and progress and strategy but actually deliver little.

Remember what I said about the backlog sales knocking the results?

Now, just think for a minute. One of the positives is having a COO (baffling how a manufacturing company didn’t have one but hey). He has sorted production out. This has meant lower waste and better efficiency.

The board said they needed new premises for growth. Now they don’t. The facility is humming nicely but that that also means a very small role over into this financial year. (It also means they do not think growth will be so high they need a bigger site - in fact head count is decreasing).

So here is my prediction:

H1 figures will be down on 23/24.

Dont say I didn’t warn you.

I see some don’t like facts.

Here is a fact - cash is £2.94 million.

Oops

As I said at the time - with ODX the devil is in the detail and headlines are only for those people that are easy to deceive.

1) Dispute - unresolved and costing £100k in legal fees. Talk of millions in counter claim have gone.

2) USA - one customer that is only just got the reg approval for white label. No pipeline indicated.

3) Royalties - zero

4) Sales - only just bought a CRM. How on earth have they been managing prospects?

5) No relocation - they have no choice but to extend the current lease (ouch)

6) Gut microbiome test isn’t mentioned. What happened to that?

Chairman’s statement makes clear they want to sell - but to who? The game is up.

All we see is yet another year of change with promises of jam tomorrow.

Just as I told you all.

On the bright side it is still limping along. I didn't think it would last this long. I thought most would realise what was going on and when the Tradeflow sale happened I didn't really understand why people hadn't grasped what mugs PIs were being taken for.

Morbidly fascinating and that is why it remains on my "doomed" list. I love car crashes and AIM never fails to deliver.

I note the clown show is up early and the lying liar is lying again.

Re - cash in bank. The projection was £3.8m in bank based on the cash burn experienced in previous updates - you can only work with the facts. The major positive indicator was that the results were more than that. It would indicate that cost controls, margin and sales had / have improved. My counter to this is that I said sales would be under £10m, which considering they had a nett back order of over £1.5 million showed they hadn’t really made huge progress. This isn’t hard to work out.

The full results on the 25th will be interesting. Until then I’m off again to make more money. Will leave you to argue and demonstrate the futility of your lives.

Hello idiots

If EBITDA was £1m the business would be worth between 6 and 8 million. That some benefits claimant that has near zero business experience believes it has greater insight than the markets is telling.

Day after day spouting the same thing. What a waste of life.

PS - As I have shown in the past - the £1m In royalties isn't going to happen. It shows a great deal of dishonesty to continue spouting a OTE as factual. But then someone with a proven track record of lying is unlikely to be pragmatic.

PPS - Based on the time Erskine joined the hilarious spamming of the board and some of his posts I deduced he has a tiny.......holding. So much energy for so little money gambled on a deadbeat stock.

It is always helpful to let a new MP know what issues they may be able to make their mark with. Local issues are of course important but a new MP loves a bit of national red meat to sink into.

I therefore recommend that as the next government has announced a task force to target companies that benefitted from hard working tax payers money you contact your likely winning candidate about CNSL.

Highlighting that they have been unable to reach a settlement with the business department and that £2.5million is being requested should make any new MP lick their lips. Will it impact jobs? No, in fact you may want to point out that after investing in building infrastructure by doubling in size and buying lots of new stuff they sold off their Scottish site to the Chinese for a price well over the odds for a company not making any money.

You may also want to throw in that directors gave themselves nice settlements and bonuses.

It should also be highlighted that based on the face value of the last trading statement the company is strong and has a positive cashflow.

Really, if they are doing so well, they can afford to settle the claim so that the government can have a small, quick win. These whitebait settlements are very helpful in dealing with the big rogues as precedent has been set.

Seems a win win. Your MP will love you if you word it well.

Looking forward to next months full accounts. Can't think why the share price is falling....

A weekend browse whilst I sit on the terrace. I notice the no mark lying liar is lying again.

Anyway - down it goes again. Hope you got your money. Will be interesting to see the full accounts next month

I for one welcome the news that the next government t are creating a whole team to claw back the money die to tha taxpayer. CNSL are small fry but the money they got should pay for a few nurses.

Well, this garnered the expected replies. Nothing like being predictable.

djframboise - I apologise snowflake that I use facts, reason and logic. You must find it so confusing. Note the takeover you banged on about (and I said was fantasy) hasn't happened.

BIGrichW - No investment in NCYT so wrong. Go back under your rock

Calderkate - lying again. Never said cash was falling. What I did do is indicate that cash burn was still happening up until the end of year trading update where I gave them credit for being cash positive. The rest of your spam is business as usual. No wonder I had blocked your nonsense.

Anyway, continue to lose money losers. See you soon. I'm interested in the final accounts to see the state of play.

“The Company continues to believe it has strong grounds to defend the claim and assert its contractual rights, including recovering outstanding sums due from the DHSC under the counterclaim.”

Sound familiar? It is almost the same as the one ODX has posted in its defence for paying back taxpayers money.

Today NCYT have agreed to pay £5m. A fraction of what was being claimed and a loss for the taxpayer but a win is a win against companies that did. It understand the contracts it was signing.

Let’s hope the pound shop traders have got out. You should have made a tidy profit if you bought around 2.5p. No big buys went through so it will only be pocket money but fun never the less.

Another month to go and we will see the spin put on the end of year trading result. Dont say you weren’t warned.

Perhaps not Captain but I think £8-9 million is likely a fair market cap on the current news. Would I spend my own money on CNSL right now? Not a chance. Just knowing I had some financial connection to someone as disconnected from reality at the green stripe carer would be frankly too much for my dignity to take. Would give me the ick. Thankfully this penny stock has about as much appeal as a wet sock and I continue to avoid.

If I was still underwater which the green stripe loser is then I would hold. If I had made some margin I would sell. Much better stocks and opportunities out there.

Thanks Captain

Work load and getting so sick of the UK weather that I flew south to get some rays meant I totally missed the release. Not that it matters as you know, I don't have any financial in the success or failure of CNSL. I hope my pragmatic response was enjoyed by the green stripes but they are likely still moaning. Bless 'em. I could write that CNSL was the best stock in the world (it clearly isn't ) and they would still moan.

Fact is I said revenue would be under £10m and I am spot on. I also said that due to this the lag would account for much of the growth. Here we are. Was wrong on the cash burn as I believed it would be £3.8m based on the cash burn ratio they had previously. Hey ho.

Hope some of have made a bit of money out of the rise. Not a bad return if they bought at 2.25p or lower. Anyone claiming to have bought below and selling at 4.30 should of course be laughed at because the number of buys at that level were near zero.

For me, with the current news 3.75p seems fair value.

You leave the country for a week or so and look at what happens? I am sure I have been missed by all.

So, a RNS and the usual flurry of excitable spamming ensued. We even had over £100K traded on the day of release. Mostly small trades but they all add up and the price increased. On a purely superficial level you can see why. The RNS contained some great news. For me here are the plus points:

1) Margin has significantly increased on the products. This means the appointment of an operations guy has paid off and the production side is working efficiently with further optomisation due. This relieves the need to relocate.

2) Simon is gone replaced by Carolyn who has clearly been an asset as non exec director. This does still leave a hole on the financial side and so with the appointment I expect a new CFO to be appointed. I didn’t rate Simon and so this is a positive move.

3) Profit up substantially and a cue to costs is that cash balance is up. This indicates, but doesn’t guarantee that the cash burn is over.

Now, that is all good and it is encorouging that markets in India have also been identified as a potential growth area.

So why is this still at 4p? Why were buys outnumbered yesterday and why is the price drifting today?

As mentioned, with a stock it is very easy to get over excited and carried away. Most involved with ODX shares will know this more than any. With CNSL it is often what they don’t say rather than what they do that is always slightly alarming:

1) No news on the government action – this is a weight hanging over the company but with an election coming it remains doubtful if settlement can be reached and it is clear they do not believe they have a strong enough case to launch court proceedings.

2) No news on the US. We know two machines were sold with one delivering. But for this primary growth target to not be mentioned is worrying.

3) Revenue may LOOK good but is it? I predicted that revenue would be below £10 million and here we are. This means that much of the growth has come purely due to deferment. That is not good because this business isn’t going anywhere unless it can substantially grow.

4) My guess is that the company may show a marginal profit when the figures come out. Let’s be optomistic and say £500,000. On a straight optomistic multiple of 6 that would make the company worth about £3 million + goodwill and cash consideration. That makes the business worth about £9 million in my view without having visibility at this point of the P&L.

This explains why the shareprice is where it is and why, without further news will remain as such. The signs are good that the business may be turning the corner and its cash balance, unless fudged, is a clear indicator of that, but I wouldn’t get carried away. This is still very much a gamble stock with growth in share price based more on sentiment than realities.

Argue all you want and pretend this stock isn’t something it isn’

Captain

Very true. It's weird this board. Anti semitic tropes are allowed but highlighting them isn't as an example. Multiple logins although against the rules are tolerated. Spamming, yep. False market information, yep. But call it out? Nope.

It makes me laugh because the green stripes seem to take things very seriously and like any half wit they project way too much.

That is the fun bit. The mouth breathers are the entertainment it is just they are too dumb to realise it. Zoo animals. A anthropomorphic study of lives of futility. I don't actually care what the stock does - the only thing I would lose if this dire company pulls through is a bit of ego. Not a penny lost, not a penny gained either way. I am sure the green stripe idiots cannot compute such a thing. But, I hope they lose it all. I would drink a very expensive Pomeral if this goes under because the anger levels would be hilarious.

Poor Andy. Different name. Same equine excreta.

Shares in issue matters not a jot

Cash position will not be over £4m as everyone knows

Revenue is not £10m and not above that

No target is set. The one target that was set was deleted, even though it was paid for.

Andy says he wants to discuss the stock but can't even get basics facts right.

Just a bounce of the actual research rather than the constant spam:

Many are still bleating about CNSLs record of growth as announced in the previous trading update.

As my analysis showed at the time it was largely smoke and mirrors. This was because of the lack of governance in production facilities which meant that yields were significantly down. In English, that means they couldn't invoice (if you don't ship you don't invoice and you don't get paid).

This meant that instead of carrying around a £1m order book into the next financial period as they normally do, they carried £2.4million. As stated when announcing a £2.5m order book in the trading update:

"The current and forecasted orders (my note: £2.5m) are no longer able to be fulfilled before the year end, but will contribute to a stronger than expected opening order book for FY24."

What is the headline constantly being used? Likely this one:

Revenue increased 44% to £4.9m (H1 2022: £3.4m).

This "increase" was purely from Footprint. Food Detective is stagnant as stated in the RNS and confirmed by Jag in call.

So, take the additional circa £1.4m carried due to production yield/governance issues off the sales and you're actually looking at £3.5 million. A c £100K change from H1 2022. Even they state in the Trading Update Sept 23 that the increase was due to improved yields on FoodPrint.

Remember that due to improvements margin has recovered but then costs increased (excluding one offs) by £400,000 in this period. This is important to note for anyone with a historic perspective of ODX.

The board also stated in the update:

"H2 is expected to remain strong, although in the absence of any further backlog to fulfill, is expected to be slightly lower than H1 FY24"

In 2022 sales were £8.5 million

In 2023 sales were £7.5 million (a 12% drop and at the bottom of forecast)

Do you spot it? H2 traditionally produces higher revenue. H2 2022 for example was £5.1m.

To make this simple: H2 will be under £5m meaning the company is not expected to generate more than £10 million in a year. In fact, they admit they won't. Realistically we are going to be looking at a range of £8 to 9.5million and another loss with substantial cost increases due to "headwinds" and higher salary costs. This means that EBITDA will be neutral or negative. Again.

In other words a company with significant challenges in an increasingly competitive market making no progress except slightly recovering from the disaster of last FY. The news on the other items of jam will be of interest and I am sure many will crow on the "increase" in revenue. But it is very thin for anyone interested in this stock beyond the simpletons headlines.

Don't say you weren't warned. DYOR.

Thanks Andy for your valuable insights into the research post. Weird how you bleat that you want to discuss the share and yet totally ignore the original post to moan. I guess you believe using tropes to attacks others is acceptable?

I'm on a conference call currently and it is as boring as your posts.

Wow - must have been some raised blood pressure last night and this morning following the facts I produced from verifiable research. The toxic twins must be really upset with the number of green stripes. Bet not one of them has argued against the figures I listed.

Captain - you're wasting your time engaging.

Have fun.