Member Info for ART123

I hate to be a party pooper but if you listen in to the Investor Meet presentation from July - link below - at 1.24.10 (that's 1 hour 24 minutes and 10 secs) - Mike Buck says in answer to the question "What is the expected flow rate from Heron-1?" "We are assuming that the initial production rates from all of the wells to be around 300 bopd sustainable." Buck also says that Heron-1 appeared to hit a sweet spot at 800 bopd during testing and that this is very high for Mongolia and not necessarily what they will get from subsequent wells.

So maybe ask the question: " What do people think a true market cap is likely to be, based on say 600 barrels per day from Heron 1 and 2 combined?"

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/investor-presentation-678

Sorry, make that the sell price will be tied to Dai Ching 33 which is usually at a 5 to 10% discount to Brent and minus $1.

I have just re-listened to the Investor Meet presentation from July and the proposed flow rates "from all wells will be 300 bopd sustainable" and not the 200 bopd I put in my post. Apologies.

Also each Heron well will cost $4M to include drilling and getting to production and the sell price will be at about a $10 discount to Brent.

That was the flow test rate. For a few hours or one day at the most. Production rates are always much lower to protect the well, etc. This was mentioned by Mike Buck in the Invetor Meet presentation with production planned to be more like 200 bopd than 800.

"All else being equal i don't think we'll have to wait very long for a double-digit share price once the Construction Permit & Petrochina agreement lands."

Except with oil at just over $70 a barrel and production due to be around 200 bopd from Heron-1 there isn't a hope in hell of the MATD share price reaching a half or probably even a third of double-digits. Get real.

They have obviously sourced and used a cheap rig that has not proved to be up to the job. What does that remind me of? Oh yes, Dave Minchin in charge at HE1 in Tanzania. Look where that ended up!

The idiots are not the ones who hold at a higher price - ie. 25p ish - but the goons who are ramping away unnecessarily today on top of what can only be taken as bad news.

I bought in heavily at the beginning and have made a very nice profit, having already sold the lot around spud time, but I have also bought back in twice now on good drill news only to be forced to offload them for a big loss. The good news is that I am still well up overall.

Rather a dim comment.

"While preparing the hole for wireline logging, the rig encountered caving with the Mowry shale from ~2,100 feet onwards which compromised the stability of the wellbore."

"Although frustrating that the completion and appraisal of Clink #1 has been delayed, ....."

They clearly haven't completed the well so no testing can have taken place so far. Idiot.

The real problem here is that the share price never went up anywhere near enough pre-spud. It needed a much bigger rise from the low IPO placing price - 4 or 5 times or more - and then there would have been clear ground in case of problems, delays, etc, etc. Now, with at least a month delay, the share price is quite likely to fall to somewhere much nearer the initial placing price than the highs.

"The Company will keep the market informed with a definitive forward timeline as soon as possible."

HEX can't do the impossible. The USA is not that cheap a place to operate, despite the impression given out by the management. The wages need paying, and they have an expensive-looking board full of experts, and these companies always like to and need to stay one step ahead of the market in terms of funding, if only to cover themselves if things suddenly go wrong - who expected this delay, for example ???

Hole difficulties, month-long delay, extra costs (which probably means more funding will be required at some stage), before they can even complete and test - what's new? It's happening all the time. By the way, that is quite a big delay - around a month to source and mobilise a rig and then work time on top to insert the casing.

The good news is that now the binding GSA agreement has been signed the partners can go ahead with the farm-down process. There was no mention of this in the RNS today (which probably explains the lacklustre share price performance) so let's hope this is RNS'd separately soon. As it has been in progress for a long while now though totally dependent on the GSA being signed first then hopefully this will happen quite quickly.

ATB

And EME could do with the cash as they can then get their next South China Sea oil exploration well drilled. Despite having 2 dusters so far you never know. As far as I can remember - and things happen a bit slowly here - the next drill is meant to be the bigger prospect.

This was previously announced by CORO:

"Conrad has engaged a global investment bank with a proven track record in similar transactions to lead a farm-down process for the divestment of a portion of its interest in the Duyung Production Sharing Contract. The Operator advises bids are expected to be received during the second quarter and the industry response to date has been encouraging. Coro, which holds a 15.0% interest in the Duyung PSC, may participate pro rata in the farm-down process as various drag and tag along clauses exist in the Joint Operating Agreement. Coro may also entertain a full exit, depending on the terms offered."

I think that CORO has a sell-down value of around $80M and that would give EME a sell-down value of around $45M which is many multiples of the current m/cap.

Production is due to be financed by selling down the asset, with Conrad Asia owning the bulk and EME and CORO as the junior partners, with both guaranteed a pro-rata sell-down, though the general plan is probably for EME and CORO to sell their complete holdings. CORO is the more attractive deal, with a lower m/cap than EME and nearly twice the holding but CORO is currently suspended.

This has taken so darned long to get this far but the sell-down stage, which has been underway for ages, should be completed a bit quicker as this is already a year late for getting into production. There should be another RNS soon with details of the sell-down plans.

I'm very surprised that this news didn't crash the share price even further.

The real problem is that there is absolutely no guarantee that there is copper in any of TYM's Zambian licences until some is physically discovered. It doesn't matter a toot how many millions of tons are in the next licence in any or all directions. All that counts is a discovery in the licences owned by TYM. And so far the first drill by Kobold, now ongoing FOR OVER 4 MONTHS, looks to be a failed drill which continues the BAD LUCK that plagues this company and Patrick Cheetham.

According to the latest presentation of the 7 previous helium discoveries within the Flathead Formation, 5 are within the 0.8% to 1.3% range of helium while two others are at 2.2% and 3.9% helium. I do feel that for the market to like this it will need to fall within the higher category.

The presentation also says: "Nitrogen gas is an important exploration indicator and all helium discoveries on the Flathead Fairway are associated with nitrogen" - so I am not sure exactly where the hydrogen fits in.

I'll repeat my post from earlier as it has received 20 recommendations but will soon be lost amongst the huge number of posts.

"For what it's worth it appears that the placing shares are with an Institutional Investor and will not be sold.

"£6.43 million (approximately US$8.2 million) fundraise via a direct subscription with Cynosure Capital PTY Ltd, with Marex Financial acting as the placing agent"

Cynosure Capital Pty Ltd is an ASIC-registered private asset firm based in Sydney, Australia. We are a global investor focused on event driven long term entry points and capital raising events. We seek to invest in powerful secular growth trends and excellent management teams."

https://cynosurecapital.com/

With IG I can trade on my mobile but not on my PC.

For what it's worth it appears that the placing shares are with an Institutional Investor and will not be sold.

"£6.43 million (approximately US$8.2 million) fundraise via a direct subscription with Cynosure Capital PTY Ltd, with Marex Financial acting as the placing agent"

Cynosure Capital Pty Ltd is an ASIC-registered private asset firm based in Sydney, Australia. We are a global investor focused on event driven long term entry points and capital raising events. We seek to invest in powerful secular growth trends and excellent management teams.

https://cynosurecapital.com/