Member Info for antonvb

BloodyRedBaron just remember that there was a 2 week planned shutdown in July so even better when that is taken into account.

Looking at the 2023 numbers net to Tullow....

Jubilee 32.5 + TEN 10 + Gabon 14 + 1 Ivory Coast = 57.5 bopd which is just below the bottom of the guidance as was already stated in the November trading update. So this is no surprise.

Looking forward into 2024 if we take the Ghana production numbers for Q4 and use these for 2024 guidance we get:

Jubilee 36 + TEN 10 + Gabon 14 + 1 Ivory Coast = 61 kbopd

If there are indeed issues that have been rectified or about to be rectified and new wells coming online soon, then the guidance will be higher. That would explain Goethe's confidence to buy at 38p. I really hope we don't get the usual cut and paste update on Wednesday and get some real detail.

On another note, looks like Rahul's decision to get out of Guyana may not have been such a bad one after all....

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/uk-based-junior-share-price-drops-as-supermajors-exit-guyana-licence/2-1-1586696

Another snippet out of Kenya

https://www.citizen.digital/news/residents-register-for-title-deeds-as-oil-extraction-in-turkana-nears-resumption-n335267

So I was having my daily movement and thought to myself .... is this a good time to do a little top up? I then thought to myself, well we had a director buy a good few at 38p and we're now 30p so that seems cheap to me. Also, what do we know now that we didn't when it was 38p, that could explain the drop to 30p. Well the answer to me seems to be nothing. All that has happened since than is we have had a downgrade by an institution that has never got it right in the past 2 years and probably has a vested interest, plus a lot of negativity published by institutions that even disclose in the articles they have a short position. So I've put my money where my mouth is and done a little top up (or gamble as DestituteBroker would say) with some funds I was saving for a rainy day and my holiday fund. Quite possible they will try walk this down a little more, however I think come Wednesday they will no longer able to be able to do that. Could be wrong of course and a lot is riding on the Jubilee and TEN production numbers for Q4 2023 that still remain a mystery and therein lies the gamble. However, Rahul did say quite a while back Tullow was producing 65kbopd and that was before the water injection issues were resolved and any 2024 wells come online. If all goes well I'll make a tidy little profit this week as don't plan to hold this top up very long.

Always remember ..... The value of, or income from shares can go down as well as up and you may not get back the original amount you invested.

Antonvb ..... ramping Tullow since 2020

Lol .... did I touch a nerve?

Probably won't be by Wednesday but you will get laid one day.....never give up hope.

Another obscure clue ... perhaps or perhaps not

https://twitter.com/AriongL/status/1746541131662287094

They did hold it at The Black Gold Hotel in Lokichar though :-)

(see photo 4 or pretty much any of the photos if you need the wifi password... lol).

I always look for little clues on the internet regarding what is happening in Kenya. India Energy week starts early next month, so I checked to see if Tullow are exhibiting or speaking as they did in 2023. There's no mention of them in the event brochure, however what is a little surprising is on page 23. Where it describes the Executive Club one of the photos is of Daniel Kiptoo (Director General, Energy & Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Kenya) and Davis Chirchir (Cabinet Secretary in charge of Energy and Petroleum in Kenya), which I assume is from the event in 2023. Coincidence .... probably, however I hope not.

"Executive Club

The India Energy Week Executive Club will provide an exclusive environment for government, industry, finance and technology leaders to enjoy a VIP experience with world class hospitality and an intimate, comfortable networking space Meeting suites are located within the Executive Club and will allow sponsors to host formal, private meetings away from the exhibition whilst enjoying exclusive VIP catering and hospitality."

https://forms.indiaenergyweek.com/download-event-brochure/

https://www.epra.go.ke/team-members/mr-daniel-kiptoo-bargoria/

https://energy.go.ke/cs-energy-and-petroleum-davis-chirchir

Are you sure you're not my ex wife?

JMAX I'm afraid your petty gloating doesn't bother me in the slightest. Unlike some on here, you included, I'm honest about my position and my mistakes. However, I have no regrets when it comes to share trading, as anytime when you buy or sell you have no idea if it's the right or wrong decision. You just have to go with what you feel is right at the time. It's very easy to post on here with hindsight as you like to do.

Given we're only 30p I suggest lunch at Spoons, but book something nice for next Friday.

If you don't like it sell ..... sell, sell, sell. Really don't get these negative "LTH". Sure maybe you got burnt and are deep underwater and I get that you might be bitter. However, how do you think publicly slating this share will ever help you recover you losses? It will only make them worse I'm afraid.

Would you like to buy may car? It's very old, runs like a dog, won't start on a cold morning, heating doesn't work, aircon is broken, alarm goes off intermittently, I've had it for years and hate it...... no wait don't walk away! Darn it, wish I could sell this damn car!!!

I'm afraid shares don't just do what you want them too because you want them too. Unfortunately you missed the 20's party last year. However, if that is what you believe why not short it and make a killing when it goes into the 20's .... hmmmmm

Love it, they're getting desperate with their deramping agenda.

NSVPatel/JMAX .... just post with your own account rather than creating new ones. We all know it's you.

Let's analyse this BS post ....

"think this will dip into the 20's soon." So you think this will be worth 33% less ... OK fair enough

"Such a dog of a share. Never fails to disappoint." So you don't like this share ... OK fair enough

"Only have a small holding left now. Will never touch this again" I'm holding and not selling a share I think is going to drop 33%

If you're going to try deramp to help your short position at least try be a bit creative instead of just posting nonsense that contradicts itself. Thanks

People are too hung up on 2023, yes we may marginally miss the guidance, however that is history. Production numbers for the last quarter of 2023 will be what guides into 2024. In the last update Rahul said Tullow was producing 65 kbopd, so you'd expect the guidance for 2024 to reflect this and the new wells to come online in 2024. Interestingly, if you take the calculated figured for September Jubilee production of 100 kbopd (Tullow 38.98%) and September TEN of 20 kbopd (Tullow 54,84%) we get the following:

Jubilee - 39 kbopd

TEN - 11 kbopd

Gabon - 14 kbopd

Ivory Coast - 1 kbopd

Which ties up to the 65 kbopd and Rahul's statement.

Wednesday next week is going to be interesting as the Ghana Petroleum Commission hasn't provided production figures since August. I’ve emailed them twice and Tullow IR twice asking for the numbers and got no response. So the question is what’s the big secret. Are they hiding bad news, waiting to release great news with the 2023 results update or am I just reading too much into this and it hasn’t been updated for any specific reason. We can work out September production using the averages for the quarter provided in the Kosmos Q3 update, and there doesn’t seem to be anything to hide and appears to show that for two months in a row they sustained good production around 100 kbopd. Bearing in mind this is while they’ve had some water injection issues that they were resolving according to Rahul. There is no reason to believe production has dropped back to 90 kbopd as the article insinuates and no evidence/references provided in the article to back this up. I disagree that we are wasting our time discussing it, as it is posted here and clearly has one purpose which is to try scare off investors so they can profit from their short. So needs to be challenged.

Jubilee Production July from Ghana Petroleum Commission website 2,760,625 / 31 = 89 kbopd

Jubilee Production August from Ghana Petroleum Commission website 3,036,877 / 31 = 98 kbopd

“At Jubilee, production averaged approximately 95,900 bopd gross during the quarter” from the Kosmos Q3 results

Meaning to hit the this average production in September for Jubilee must have been 101 kbopd

TEN Production July from Ghana Petroleum Commission website 206,471 / 31 = 6.6 kbopd (Remember there was a 2 week shutdown)

TEN Production August from Ghana Petroleum Commission website 574,256 / 31 = 18.5 kbopd

“At TEN, production averaged approximately 15,100 bopd gross for the third quarter,” from the Kosmos Q3 results

Meaning to hit the this average production in September for TEN must have been 20.2 kbopd

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-announces-third-quarter-2023-results#:~:text=FINANCIAL%20UPDATE,liquidity%20of%20approximately%20%240.6%20billion%20.

https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/#

we'll see on the 24th, however i think that article is a load of horse **** to be blunt. we already know 2023 production will be slightly below the bottom of guidance. rahul said this himself. we also know in november last year he said that tullow were averaging 65kbopd. we also know in august jubilee produced 97kbopd and the decline in ten has stabilised. all this already stated. however getting a 30% increase out of jubilee now somehow seems to be a "peak" and there's too much water. whatever next....they're running out of excuses now. classic case of short and distort in my opinion.

afraid that article is *******s. the very first line is factually incorrect.

"tullow reports its interim results for 2023 tomorrow"

it's interim results are being reported on the 24th and not tomorrow. people get slated for complaining about tge shorts manipulating things, however this is a classic example. in the last presentation last year around november rahul stated tullow were producing 65kbopd. so yes the 24th is going to be very interesting.