Member Info for antonvb

Https://youtu.be/pvMRCz3VMck?si=gwUETky4ZlOwAndS

I can't help thinking the shorts are getting played equally with those who trade long here. They drop it to 30p and the shorts wet themselves in excitement that it's going sub 30p and pile in, however it then bounces up from 30p. Conversely they take it to 35p plus and the longs get excited and pile in, however it then drops back to 30p. Has happened at least 3 times in the past few months.

JMAX

1 Feb 2024 15:09

Posts: 2,256

Price: 30.90

No Opinion

Arbitration set for October 2024.

Doesn't seem like there's a lot of public info on the arbitration, however just in case you want to review the petroleum agreements and make your own mind up if Tullow is liable for the tax or not :-)

https://jusmundi.com/en/document/other/en-tullow-ghana-limited-v-ghana-revenue-authority-iii-press-release-of-tullow-oil-plc-on-filing-of-requests-for-arbitration-by-tullow-ghana-limited-tuesday-14th-february-2023#other_document_30448

Https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-ghana-limited-refers-disputed-tax-claims-international-arbitration-london/

"A hearing in respect of this dispute is scheduled for October 2023."

Just as well we all sold at 39p then....

Last year the Ghana Petroleum Commission only released the September to December 2023 production numbers a day or two before the January trading update this year. We now know that production peaked at 100 kbopd in September and then due to water injection issues dropped off each month with 83.5 kbopd for December. We also now know as per the January update that the water injection issues have been resolved, 5 Jubilee wells will be added in 2024 and according to production guidance forecasted production for 2024 is 100 kbopd.

So the question is, was this information deliberately withheld to protect the share price and will we see January 2024 production numbers released in February. Then that raises the question of what we would expect the number to be for the month? If it’s under 100 kbopd, would this be withheld till the new wells come online and if it’s over 100 kbopd, is this the catalyst to push the share price up out of the low 30’s range. That then makes me wonder about the guidance. Is Rahul just being conservative at 100 kbopd and it will be smashed once the new wells come online, or do we need the new wells to sustain 100 kbopd?

Even the brokers know their forecasts are bs .... but it certainly does help their agenda's. Over the past 4 years when there is a positive TLW broker rating you see very little press/social media on it, however as soon as it's negative it's plastered all over the place.

Https://www.myjoyonline.com/ghanas-energy-sector-in-search-of-right-equation-for-next-decade/

However if you believe JMAX aka NSVPatel or any of their other incarnations you need your head read.

JMAX Posted in: TLW Price: 33.02

RE: 3 US Troops killed by drone attack29 Jan 2024 12:35

I have never been short, as I don't short.

Then today they post the following:

JMAX Posted in: TLW Price: 32.48

RE: KenyaToday 11:31

Op of $80 and the sp in the low 30s, worrying times for the longs.

Clearly giving themselves away as a shorter and they wonder why people don't like shorts...... because most of them are devious snakes out to screw you over.

Https://su-plus.strathmore.edu/items/713262ab-ea69-45d2-8576-aa512606d476/full

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Italy-Pursues-Closer-Energy-Ties-With-Africa-Through-6-Billion-Fund.html

Prof Njuguna Ndung’u CBS – CS, National Treasury of NOK

https://nationaloil.co.ke/board-of-directors/

Sitting in Italy this week with President Ruto

https://twitter.com/thekenyatimes/status/1752202187336253630

Ruto met with the Italian Prime Minister too

https://twitter.com/Kenyans/status/1752234132124446998

https://twitter.com/K24Tv/status/1752250743204061185

Make of it what you will.......

I still think there is a chance it will happen and if it doesn't Tullow will get some kind of compensation from the Kenyan government. So Tullow will get something for it either way in my opinion....... would I buy a share today at 31p to gamble on Kenya, probably not. However, at 31p we seem pretty cheap to me so I'd buy because of that and Kenya would be some serious icing on the cake if it happened. And yes 31p is cheap..... the $48m along we'll get from gas in 2024 is enough to pay a 10% dividend at the current market cap.

This seems to support this theory ..... fingers crossed for an RNS soon

Adieuk32

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 2,209

Price: 34.50

Strong Buy

Gas sales Agreement25 Jan 2024 21:05

Alot ot talk on here, how Rahul has added the Gas revenue to the year-end figures.

There's only one explanation, in order for this to happen, a long term agreement must be about to happen, as Rahul has stated this is the only way they can book the reserves and production data into the accounts.

IMHO prior to the 6 March results, we will have the Gas sales Agreement, TEN FDP Plan and an update on the Arbritration hearing along with the FPSO on TEN Lease.

The RIG is secured until next year, so either it's going to be released early, or it will re-start the TEN Field Development Plan Drilling campaign.

Looking at the late BUY trades, i'd say the next few weeks are going to be interesting.....

Gl all

Https://twitter.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1752011209233125649

Exciting night at the 2nd Ghana Energy Evening co-hosted by #TullowGhana & @GhanainUK in London. UK corporate leaders with Ghanaian roots gathered to discuss Ghana's #energy future and how to sustain investments.

Established by @powusuankomah, Ghana’s High Commissioner to the UK and @TullowGhanaLtd, the #GhanaEnergyEvening unites key players to collaborate for the good of Ghana's energy agenda.

The evening's speakers included Dr. Bassam Fattouh of @OxfordEnergy and @Yaw_N, ex-Unilever.

We were also joined by Rahul Dhir, @TullowOilplc CEO, Ghana’s High Commissioner @powusuankomah, and Wissam Al-Monthiry and Cynthia Lumor, #TullowGhana Managing Director and Deputy Managing Director,respectively.

Thanks to all for a wonderful evening. #InvestInGhana

Https://www.gabonreview.com/la-base-vie-off-shore-de-mopu-c-un-pas-crucial-pour-la-securite-et-le-confort-des-travailleurs-de-perenco-oil-and-gas-et-tullow-oil/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Steady on .... production is hardly flat. Compare the numbers for Jubilee from H1 2023 and H2 2023. Yes it tailed off from the 100k high in September however there were water injection issues which have now bee resolved.

January, 2023 = 77.5 kbopd

February, 2023 = 71 kbopd

March, 2023 = 70 kbopd

April, 2023 = 66.5 kbopd

May, 2023 = 69 kbopd

June, 2023 = 82.5 kbopd

July, 2023 = 89 kbopd

August, 2023 = 98 kbopd

September, 2023 =100 kbopd

October, 2023 = 96 kbopd

November, 2023 = 91 kbopd

December, 2023 = 89.5 kbopd

JMAX you and I both know that's not the truth, yet you're calling me the liar. I merely repeated the date provided by Keith Hill during the Africa Oil Inc update and I provided a link to the reference at the time. It's in my posting history if you want to trawl through it and it's also in the AOI update presentation if you want to go watch that. Doubt you will of course, as why let facts get in the way of a good bit of trolling. The dates were obviously missed and that might just be why Keith Hill is no longer the CEO of AOI, as he stuck his neck out and gave specific dates.

It's a waste of time engaging with you and I really don't know why or others for that matter on here do it. I'm going to try just ignore you.

You can now post your usual I'm a fool response and remind us all that you called 39p.

JMAX the only thing I see is you for what you are. Doesn't matter whether you have no shares, 1 share or 1 million shares, you're still just a fantasist troll with multiple accounts. It's pretty sad that your claim to fame and the only thing you ever go on about is calling a drop from 39p. I do however look forward to seeing you listed in The Times top 100 rich list of 2024.

Andoman99 I agree we're completely divorced from fundamentals and trading is the right way to go, however it's difficult for a PI without the tools and know how. In addition to my main holding I now have a small pot for trading. Bought on Monday sold on Wednesday just before close (oddly my trade didn't appear in the list of trades on this or the stock exchange website which also lead me to believe someone was harvesting the stock or something was fishy) and bought again this morning (just a little to early by impossible to buy at exactly the bottom all the time unless you're JMAX). Will sell again when it's up 5% on my buy price. I'm not risking trading my main holding though, as am definitely not selling that until there is a definitive decision on Kenya ..... be it good or bad. Unless I panic sell again or feel like making a generous donation of shares to the MM's of course.