RE: Director Buy11 Mar 2024 16:19
It's pretty clear this drop is sentiment driven. You can see it from the tone on this board and it's not the first time it's happened. You just have to look back to October last year when it went down to 22p for no specific reason. In the run up to the results and since, there has been a flood of negative press on Tullow. Most of the articles contain very little factually and just take a statement from the results and spin it negatively. Then we also have 13 year old school children now suing Tullow for £1.5 billion for environmental damage in Kenya. I mean really, where does that come from and why has it taken 12 years for them to suddenly realise there's environmental damage? It's certainly someone with an agenda behind that and can only be from one of two camps. One being the large shorts who don't want the price to go up and are concerned about the improving situation (perhaps a bit far fetched to be the case). The other being the environmental lobby who are concerned that Kenya is starting to look like it is going ahead. There was a lot of similar stuff in Uganda. Activist investors got Standard bank to pull the pipeline funding for environmental reasons and the Chinese ended up funding it at the last minute or it wouldn't have gone ahead. So this is quite possible. However, I digress a little, as I think the main driver for this drop is Jubilee production rumors. We hit 100kbopd in September and then production dipped again. The Ghana petroleum commission didn't update the September through December production figures until the day before the trading update at the end of January and we've had no production figures released for 2024 yet, despite being in March already. My take on this is that these numbers were intentionally held back in 2023 while the water injection issues were resolved and only released as production numbers were in the update so they had no choice. I think the same thing is happening now and they won't be released till the new wells (some or maybe all) are online and show strong production numbers. This uncertainty over Jubilee production is causing the share price decline and we won't see a turnaround till these numbers are out (assuming they are the right numbers of course). Would a director be buying more knowing that we're about to get absolutely hammered ..... I don't think so. So we just have to ride this one out again like we did in October last year. The question remains though .... how much more of this do I have to go through?
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