Member Info for antonvb

I have a theory on this .... we often see a 5% to 10% rise on one day followed by a 5% to 10% drop the next day. My take on this is that on the day the share goes up a short is closing and buying back shares causing the price to rise. Then the following day the returned shares are sold off causing the share price to drop. I've seen this pattern happen quite a few times, however only shorts above 0.5% are reported so not easy to prove.

Funny how when it's an upgrade no one hears a word about it and doesn't even appear on the TLW page on this website.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Analyst-recommendations-Netflix-Charles-Schwab-Tesla-Tullow-Oil-Workspace-Group--45810797/

Https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/barrelofoilequivalent.asp

"A barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) is a term used to summarize the amount of energy that is equivalent to the amount of energy found in a barrel of crude oil. By encompassing different types of energy resources into one figure, analysts, investors, and management can assess the total amount of energy the firm can access. This is also known as crude oil equivalent (COE).

Many oil companies produce both oil and gas, among other petroleum products, but the unit of measure for each is different. Oil is measured in barrels and natural gas is measured in billions of cubic feet (BCFE). To help facilitate like-for-like comparisons, the industry standardized natural gas production into "equivalent barrels" of oil. One barrel of oil is generally deemed to have the same amount of energy content as 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas. So this quantity of natural gas is "equivalent" to one barrel of oil."

Tullow sells gas at $2.90/mmbtu

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/ghana-update-amendment-interim-gas-sales-agreement/

1 million BTU ( 1 MMBTU) = 26.8 cubic meters ( m³) or 946.4331 cubic feet ( ft³) of natural gas

So 7 kbopde would be 7,000 x 6,000 cubic feet of gas = 42,000,000 cubic feet of gas

42,000,000 cubic feet of gas / 946.4331 = 44,377 MMBTU * $2.90 = $128,693 a day

$128,693 a day x 365 = $46,973,209 a year

Divided by an oil price of $80 gives you 587 kbo for the year or 1.6 kbopd equivalent in value.

The RNS yesterday stated "Ghana gas commercialisation via interim gas sales agreement, delivering c.$30 million revenue.", however the price of $2.90 was only agreed in august last year and was lower for the first half of the year. So this should be what we get in 2024 all things being equal and my calculations being correct (no guarantees there).

Will Rahul now be brave enough again to invite shareholders to attend the next update and will their be biscuits?

Notice how JMAX never denies the allegations but always deflects with petty insults. Yes, they bought in at 37p and are NSVPatel plus who knows how many other accounts.

I think JMAX bought in between 37 and 37.5p before it dropped all the way down to 30p. It bounced a few times in the 37 to 39p range and they were boasting about how they were trading the range. End of the day I don't really care as makes no difference in my life .... only what I buy, hold and sell is what matters.

One more straw posted yesterday:

"#LAPSSETKe Turkana Regional Office held a meeting today with the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which will see through a collaboration to benefit the Business Community and locals in Turkana.

Piloting the journey for private and public dialogue towards addressing issues affecting the LAPSSET Corridor Project in the region, this collaboration will also provide an opportunity to sensitize the Public on the LAPSSET's Crude Oil Pipeline Project, Empowerment of vulnerable groups and Trade Expos and Exhibitions."

https://www.facebook.com/LAPSSETProgram

We have Glg Partners and and Pictet Asset Management with shorts of 0.51% and 1.99% respectively (plus obviously those below the threshold for reporting (and we know there's a lot of them). What exactly do they do from here, as can't see it being worthwhile holding a short in Tullow anymore. Shorting the stock and going long the bonds isn't a great play anymore, there is nothing to refinance till 2026 and the only negative left is probably the tax dispute (which given the FCF forecasts, while not ideal, I don't think would be the end of the world if it went against us). Then there's all the upside to consider like Ghana Gas, TEN revised development, new Jubilee wells, Kenya and the possibility of a merger or aquisition (we know Rahul tried to get involved in Nigeria).

Hmmmm so what do they do and if they exit, can they do so in an orderly way without setting their pants on fire or could they markets just keep manipulating this in the 30 to 40p range. Going to get interesting in the next two months I think. Especially as we get closer to a Kenya decision or another deferral of the date by EPRA and we see the Jubilee production numbers for January, February, March, etc.

Just me thinking out loud and keen to hear others opinions.

ah yes, reading it wrong. they haven't broken down the non operated portfolio into gabon and ivory coast for 2024. ignore all of my posting on this thread, as yes i was missing something and it's complete ****e.

After looking into this more I still don't get this. In the 2023 January update in the forecasts we had Jubilee, TEN, Non Operated, Gabon and Cote d'Ivoire all added up to make up the total production forecast. However in the 2024 update we only have the following:

Jubilee oil (kbopd) 39

TEN oil (kbopd) 9

Non-operated portfolio oil (kbopd) 11

So that's a guidance of 59 kbopd for 2024 (excludes gas). So where's Gabon and Cote d'Ivoire in all this. I know there was an asset swap in Gabon, so does that mean we're now producing nothing in those two counties?

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-signs-asset-swap-agreement-perenco-optimise-gabon-portfolio/

If we did still have Gabon and Cote d'Ivoire, if a conservative 13 kbopd was added to the forecasts for them we would of had a forecast of a stonking 72 kpopd. Seems given we don't have any production forecasts for them and we're matching 2023 things have improved significantly in Ghana so goes against the negativity we've seen on here from the usual suspects.

Another thing that is being overlooked here is Gabon, with nothing in the production forecasts for it in 2024. In 2022 Gabon produced 14.9 kbopd and was guided to produce 13 kbopd in 2023. So the forecast for 2024 may look very similar to 2023 which sounds disappointing, however you have to remember Gabon is gone from the forecast and so has roughly 13 kbopd production. So in light of that the 2024 forecasts look a lot better or am I missing something here?

JMAX it can't go ahead without Tullow. That's the point. If the government reject the FDP Tullow will sue for compensation. and before you say that is a waste of time and meaningless ..... remember that it's in the same court they have taken Ghana to for tax arbitration that you keep reminding us about. If the FDP is approved obviously Tullow need an investor, so there is risk however unlikely they would get nothing out of it.

I eagerly await your standard "I'm a fool" response...... oh and that special information you have.

Sorry for my English .... the share price she never lay

People are being very selective here when comparing 2022 to 2023 production, as they were clearly hoping to buy in below 30p or are short. The years are not like for like, as additional wells were introduced in 2023. In 2022 Jubilee averaged 84 kbopd and in 2023 83 kbopd. However, in 2022 for the period August to December Jubilee averaged 84 kbopd in 2022 and 95 kbopd in 2023. This is the what needs to be looked at, as this is the period in 2023 when the new wells were online. So this is an increase of around 11 kbopd, bearing in mind this all happened while they were experiencing water injection issues that the update today says have been resolved.

As for Kenya .... definitely not dead in the water. If it was we'd need an RNS stating this. The Kenya government has egg all over it's face with their G2G deal to buy oil in shillings and the Kenyan's are not happy with the price of fuel. No way will they now also tell the population that all that oil in the ground is staying there and the prices at the pump are going to continue to rise. Guess we should get some kind of update by the end of the quarter .... so we'll see soon enough.

Wait let me guess ..... equity raise???

This article is dated today and implies Rahul is in Kenya this week.... interesting

https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/turkana/leaders-accuse-tullow-oil-of-illegal-disposal-of-waste-4500952

"Governor Jeremiah Lomorukai said that before Tullow Oil can embark on the commercial exploration stage, which will see Kenya extract and export crude oil, it was critical to meet again with the firm's officials to discuss their operations.

"I will this week hold a meeting with

Tullow Group CEO Rahul Dhir to discuss ways of making their operations more transparent and involving all stakeholders including the local community and the county government," Mr Lomorukai said."

Doesn't seem to be anyone on here saying we're going into the 20's today......hmmmmm

Based on your charts or your gut?

Your charts have been pretty accurate so far I hate to admit 😳

"sorry for my English" yet written in perfect English..... Lol

JMAX aka NSVPatel has been very busy creating accounts lately it seems.

Https://youtu.be/fUhP5_P4cb0?si=9MMfMHDJuC8cwRgT

https://www.tvcnews.tv/2024/01/kenya-set-to-exit-g2g-oil-supply-deal/

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/how-kenya-oil-deal-is-distorting-currency-market-4497914

Kenyans aren't happy with fuel prices or the government and this hasn't turned out the way the government expected. Extracting oil in Kenya would go a long way to improving their popularity.