Member Info for antonvb

You might be looking in the wrong place for constructive thoughts. That aside, I think the Glencore sweetener was already mentioned in the RNS:

"Tullow is also pleased to announce that it has entered into oil marketing and offtake contracts with Glencore for Tullow's crude oil entitlements from the Jubilee and TEN fields in Ghana and the Rabi Light entitlements in Gabon which run concurrently with the notes facility agreement."

As you say I think it is now all about Jubilee production. We had an RNS saying they'd reached 100 kbopd in July last last year, yet Jubilee only produced over 100 kbopd in one month of the year which was September (97k in August and 96k in October) and then dropped each month down to 83 kbopd in December. I find it suspicious that the September to December 2023 Jubilee production figures were only publish in January this year a day before the update. We're told the issues are resolved, however we still haven't had the production numbers for January released. So are these being suppressed till they get back to over 100 kbopd or is this being kept quite till the Kosmos or Tullow 2023 results in a few weeks. Whatever the case I think we won't see any significant share price movement till we see some production numbers showing sustained production at Jubilee of over 100 kbopd. There is also obviously a chance we get something out of Kenya or Rahul manages to do another deal somewhere that actually happens (we know he did a deal with Capricorn energy and tried to partner to buy Shell's Nigeria assets, both of which never materialised).

The results update next month will hopefully provide clarity and we'll see the share price go up, up and up.

I'm upbeat as I got lucky on this one. Even at 30p I have a substantial profit, so I live in hope of a big payday if we hit £1 plus. The minute I lose hope I sell, which I did when there was the 10% drop on the Gabon coup news. Just lost my nerve unfortunately. Unlike some on here I don't have special information and hindsight is a wonderful thing. However, I'd rather regret not picking Friday's Euro millions numbers than not selling at 60p. However, regret neither as I can't predict the future.

I still see enough chatter coming out of Kenya to keep the dream alive and hopefully we should know by the end of March.

For balance .... I subsequently bought back in and hold...... and yes I bought back in at a higher price.

So you never want anyone to invest here as it's a mistake? So then surely you should sell now, as why are you still holding if this share is going nowhere. £2 might be ambitious, however 60p is hardly crazy talk. It wasn't that long ago that we were 60p and no reason why we can't get back there. In percentage terms it sounds like a lot as it's a 100% increase in share price, however would take less than £500m to be added to the market cap to achieve it. A figure less than the predicted FCF for the next 2 years.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, however what happens on here often is that those who are negative simply post negative comments and make no reference to any facts or reasons why. I think you are one of those and while I understand why people who hold ramp and those who short deramp, it is illogical for holders to deramp. That makes me suspicious of their intentions and if they're actually being honest about their position.

Let me guess ... you're not invested here and are posting as a public service announcement?

I think the latest hurdle is the Jubilee production numbers. We hit 100kbopd production in September last year and then had some water injection issues and it dropped off again. We were told these issues were resolved in the January update and the Tullow production guidance for Jubilee for 2024 is based on an average production of 100kbopd per month. So I guess the question is which of the following applies:

1) Production is currently under 100kbopd, however with the new 2024 wells coming online it will go over 100kbopd later in the year, thus giving the average of 100kbopd for 2024 as per the guidance.

2) Production is currently back at 100kbopd and expected to go higher when the new 2024 wells come online, resulting in an average for 2024 higher than the production forecast and Rahul is just being cautious with his estimates for 2024 based on what happened last year with the water injection issues.

Either way, I think we need to see monthly figures showing production is now back over 100kbopd published on the Ghana Petroleum Commission website for the market to take the Jubilee production increases seriously. Bearing in mind one of the board bought at 38p at the end of December, let's hope once we get January's numbers they're already producing over 100kbopd again and Rahul was just being cautious.

I can just see it now....an EV charging point attached to every tree and those Kenyans wizzing around in their £40k Tesla's.

Only thing coming is good news. They won't be able to keep this at this price once we see sustained production of over 100kbopd at Jubilee is published. Then there's all the other good news on the horizon and oil looking strong with current world events. You might want to think about closing your short and enjoying the ride up before you get played.

Conveniently forgetting to remind us that they're short now the share price is rising.

Jm0205

Posts: 337

Price: 29.00

RE: Bb psoters7 Feb 2024 20:57

I'll give u some experience. Old the PI that panic sell cos it drops a few p feed the short. There's just so many it is money..u'll be one of them. I picked these up orinally 11p and sold out at 44p be short since 32p now. So not bad for the Ill educated. U should try it.

Oil price getting in the way of the drop to 25p

I also think Kenya is going to happen, as it’s worth too much to just be left in the ground and remember that Kenya are desperate for dollars. Kenya negotiated to pay for their oil imports in Kenyan schillings as had no foreign currency reserves and it has backfired on them. What will Tullow get out of it remains to be seen, however pretty sure they will get something and as Bullseye14 already alluded too, they now have 50% more to play with. I’m not concerned about why the other partners walked, as it is more than likely their share was too small for them to make it worth their while and they wanted to focus on reserves elsewhere. We know that AOI and TotalEnergies have announced significant investments in other fields since then. The question always raised is why did they give it away instead of selling it? Who knows and perhaps it was because the strategic investors pulled out. However, now that Tullow owns 100%, it changes any future negotiations which is what really matters.

What is interesting to me is that last year during India Energy Week we saw all the Tullow, Kenyan and Oil India and ONGC Videsh keys players all together smiling like a deal was done. However, at this years India Energy Week, Tullow are not even exhibiting and so far no sign of the Kenyans their either. So does this mean the deal fell apart last year or that it is so far progressed that it just needs the Kenyans to finally approve the FDP. I’m probably leaning towards the former rather than the later, however if that is the case why have we seen articles subsequently stating the Kenyans want 20% and why have EPRA engaged consultants. All very puzzling indeed and I hope we get some kind of clarity sooner than later.

I do think that those who think these share price dips, swings and spikes are news or oil price driven are very much mistaken. Tullow has become a money making machine for the MM’s and they just direct the price up and down to where they want it. Just look at the historical share price chart. I’m starting to see myself as a Long Term Dreamer (LTD) rather than a LTH.

Could also just be that I'm too cynical and we've dropped with the sector, however just been hit a little harder than most......

https://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1755207594090594378?t=eYduy3A0l5aiy7FceCz2BQ&s=19

I was chatting to a friend who has been invested in Tullow in the past and knows I'm still in. He asked my what's happening with Tullow l, as he sees they're stopping drilling? He had the impression there was a problem. So my view is this is an orchestrated drop and fueled by misleading headlines. Social media and news is flooded with headlines saying Tullow is stopping or pausing drilling in Ghana. This sounds scary and most just read the headline and not don't the article. In the meantime this is simply a negative spin on the positive news from the update that the 2024 drilling program is 6 months ahead of schedule and will be stopped till 2025 once complete.

https://twitter.com/Graphicgh/status/1755170877094633874?t=PO6LKNDnLQLZ2sW_XMtnbg&s=19

https://twitter.com/TheGhanaWeb/status/1755146086576988456?t=IgePhJtEMCD3YLRz8QQnPQ&s=19

https://mobile.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Tullow-Oil-to-halt-drilling-operations-in-Ghana-1915503

https://twitter.com/thegbcghana/status/1754943051305279882?t=Qg7jAiVGDrpGZBUHPyegiw&s=19

Just a few examples....many more like this.

Not sure if they accidentally let slip that they are short, however jm0205 is the first deramper on here to admit they are short in a very, very, very, very, very, very long time. Long or short is everyone's personal choice and they have to live with the consequences, however shorts tend to hide their position and deramp pretending they are long or have no skin in the game. So you'll probably all be surprised to hear me say this, but I find it quite refreshing to hear them admit to being short. Do I think we'll get to 25p....well I hope not, however what has changed since we were 38p .... not a lot, so I'll just wait it out I guess.

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plethora-projects-boost-kosmos-energy-150000543.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALGPscNSC_IgmRgn25Qla7HwvF4LD1tTHxpm3BOW8V0_vjXpPAtzvfusLVQeN5UT1u9M-wBbGkpu3DRGChXDD7-oksFONldfF-SFvR9YNfAqD1sDoX8adjUwNWYVZ9Bv7xQQ10NEpSR0ZpYs0cIXvAoix04lvK05JYN83VPTXbXl

Kosmos Chairman and CEO Andrew Inglis said the company had set a goal in the second half of 2022 to increase production by 50% by the second half of 2024. To do so, Kosmos is relying on three developments: Jubilee Southeast, Tortue Phase 1 and Winterfell.

“In the third quarter, we brought the first of the development projects, Jubilee Southeast, online, which increased Jubilee gross production to around 100,000 barrels of oil a day, up almost 50% from the production levels seen in the first half of the year,” Inglis said.

The strategy is starting to pay off, as quarter-over-quarter revenue grew to $526 million from $273 million. Capex rose by about $20 million in the third quarter to $193 million.

Jubilee South East’s robust production offshore Ghana allowed the first meaningful step up in third quarter production, raising Kosmos’ volumes by 17% compared with the previous quarter. Jubilee averaged a gross 95,900 bbl/d, an increase of more than 30% over the second quarter as three producer wells came online across the South East and the main fields.

Also in Ghana, Kosmos’ TEN Field averaged 15,000 bbl/d. Production dipped from the second quarter, but was in line with company expectations. Kosmos had planned a two-week shutdown for maintenance.

“While working on the maintenance of the FPSO, we modified the gas train, and the rerouted gas is now being re-injected into the Entome Field to support reservoir pressure and maintain production levels,” Inglis said. “This has resulted in around a 75% reduction in flaring, a major step towards our goal to eliminate routine flaring by 2026.”

Less than 3 weeks till the Kosmos results. Will probably get some kind of update on Jubilee and TEN production.

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-host-fourth-quarter-2023-results-and-webcast

Well they've fleeced the longs who lost their nerve on the way down to 29p and given the shorts the impression we're going back to 20p, so time to start fleecing the shorts on the way back up to 35p. Must be great being in control of this little money spinner.

Https://www.af.mil.gh/social-board/news/tullow-ghana-limited-pays-a-courtesy-call-on-cas

I have been ignoring him/they/it/their/whatever for a little while now and not taking the bait when they post. It is pointless responding as him/they/it/their/whatever always know better and never disclose him/they/it/their/whatever position or are truthful. Whatever happens with Tullow him/they/it/their/whatever will always have gone long or short at exactly the right time and called it in hindsight. They're just looking for the attention him/they/it/their/whatever never got as a child. Anyway that's enough about him/they/it/their/whatever. I'm still positive about the future of my Tullow shares and so are the directors, which is all that's all that matters to me.

Supercooper if this dip is caused by the January trading update RNS which resulted in a 10% rise on the day, care to explain the reason for the other 3 times since October last year that we've dipped to 30p or just under?