Member Info for antonvb

"Please read the disclaimers at the base of this report. The author has a short position in Tullow. "

Says it all really. Funny how they don't quote the August production at Jubilee where production was 97k ..... hmmmmmm

Https://africaoilgasreport.com/2024/01/in-the-news/ndwestern-led-consortium-wins-the-purchase-of-spdc-shels-signature-subsidiary-in-nigeria/

"It has been a drawn-out process, Four Nigerian companies (Seplat, Heirs Oil & Gas, Sahara Energy and NDWestern) were in the running as of end of 2021, when Shell asked parties interested to put in firm bids by mid-January 2022. As of June 2023, only two entities: the Rennaisance Consortium and the Heirs Oil & Gas/Tullow 0il Consortium remained in contention."

This article certainly gives more context to this tweet from last year and probably explains why Tullow were invited:

https://twitter.com/OlaniwunAjayiLP/status/1707424903912157228

That is what I was referring to earlier, however the articles I saw didn't specify petroleum or palm oil. That article very clearly states it's a petroleum refinery and not for palm oil. Excellent news..... thanks for sharing

It is just one article. However, we do have to bear in mind that last year Kenya signed a trade deal with Indonesia that included petroleum and an agreement that they would build a refinery. I posted details and links of this at the time. The one thing that isn't clear when reading all of it is whether the refinery was for the petroleum or palm oil that was also mentioned in the trade agreement. The point of me posting these articles on Kenya is not necessarily that I believe the article is spelling out exactly what is going to happen, however the more articles we see the more it shows Kenya is not dead. After all, there's no smoke without fire.

I've also seen a lot of posts on here about why we've dropped from 39p to 32p in a week. The oil price is blamed, the shorts are blamed, production is blamed, debt is blamed, etc. However, there's not necessarily any reason for it other than "manipulation" by those that can. We've seen this countless times over the past few years. In fact on most days this share will swing 5% just for the fun of it at some point during the day. Unfortunately we're at the mercy of the powers that be and with shares nowadays the fundamentals often have nothing to do with the share price. Destitutebroker has made several very good posts in this regard. This is the reason why I ramp as sentiment is everything. You can see it on here .... we dip and the negativity starts on this BB till we're down 10 to 20% and we hit a level where posters say that's "bottom" and start buying again. 30 to 32p seems to be that level now, we've seen it happen multiple times over the past 6 months or so. I do however think that at some point the fundamentals will improve to the point where we see a significant rise I share price, however the games will always continue, just hopefully in a higher price band.

My 2 cents worth for today.

That the best you can come back with? Whether you're making money or not (whichever way I don't really care) you've been found out. The only one on here who believes your BS on here is yourself.

I'll take that as you're telling porkies and you are NSVPatel.....

JMAX care to elaborate on who this major player is who reduced, as when you go through the RNS's there isn't one. So either you're telling porkies, they forgot to file an RNS or this is the special information you've alluded in the past when posting as NSVPatel....

Https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2024/01/09/ruto-calls-on-tullow-oil-to-build-a-refinery%2C110135883-bre?cxt=PUB&utm_source=AIA&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AUTO_EDIT_SOM_PROS&did=110087002

Unfortunately need to subscribe to read the full article.

I'll answer for him/her/it/they/them/NSVPatel as he/she/it/they/them/NSVPatel rarely post on here....

What?

JMAX you are so full of bs it is ridiculous. You're not fooling anyone here, except maybe a few of the aliases you post under.

POWER why don't you actually read it rather than just post negative speculation. Oh wait, that doesn't suit your agenda.....You post something negative about this share at every opportunity without any factual basis to back it up. You're really are a fool holding a share that you're so negative about.....or are you really holding long. Hmmmmm

JMAX you're bipolar....one minute you're the world's greatest trader and next minute you're a LTH. Have you been holding since this was £14????

POWER ..... the EU deal has been in the making for years and nothing to be particularly concerned about if you're long or short.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/12/19/the-eu-and-kenya-sign-a-landmark-economic-partnership-agreement/

J no FAX .... just TROLL

So in light of no production figures for Jubilee or TEN since August I put on my Sherlock Holmes hat and came up with this....

https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/production-operations/article/14301198/kosmos-increases-production-17-over-years-second-quarter

"Jubilee (Kosmos 38.6%) averaged 95,900 b/d of oil gross in this year’s third quarter—up 32% over the previous quarter—however two water injector wells online post-quarter end were delayed due to operational issues and downtime of the water injection pumps was longer than anticipated, leading to slower ramp up in the quarter which may defer one Jubilee lifting into first-quarter 2024"

Now we know that in July and August the production figures for Jubilee are as follows:

https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/#

July, 2023 2,760,625.00 0r circa 89 kbopd

August, 2023 3,036,877.00 or circa 98 kbopd

So using these figures and the average for Q3 2023 mentioned in the article, this means that in September Jubilee produced an average of 101 kbopd. Unfortunately I can't do the same for TEN as don't have the average for the quarter, however production at Tullows biggest producer is up over 32% and that is before the water injection issues are sort and the Q4 wells are bought online.

Believe what you will and post what you want, however I think the update on 24th of January is going to be very very interesting.

JMAX ... last reply to you and then I'll ignore you, as it's futile engaging with you. You know nothing about me or how much I've made or lost in the last 4 years. Also, I really don't care how much you've made or lost in the last 2 days. It is utterly meaningless to me and has no relevance in my life, so I've never given it a moments thought.

Https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/mps-fault-noc-revival-plan-over-sh8bn-debt-load-4481724

"The Cabinet had given NOC up to the end of September last year to onboard an oil firm to be its strategic partner but the deadline was later pushed to end of October due to delays from the Treasury to give the corporation a go-ahead.

The government has since gone mum on the process even after NOC sounded out the three top oil multinationals in Kenya, Vivo Energy, TotalEnergies and Rubis Energy Kenya to gauge their keenness on a possible deal.

Officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said NOC was nearing a deal with one of the multinationals by November last year."

JMAX ... I hate to burst your bubble of delight in others misery, however there's a fundamental flaw with your comment "More easy cash as the longs get pumped again ;)" that you're missing. That is the fact that yes the share price is a bit down today, however no one long has sold told. So what really matters is the price on the day the LTH sells, small short term swings are irrelevant. As for Kenya we'll see what happens, however there is more evidence of something happening then nothing happening. Either way, everyone expects Kenya no to happen, so if not the effect on the share price will be muted. However, if it does, we'll probably see the biggest daily gain in TLW share price in a very long time.

POWER .... your logic is flawed. If you're expecting bad or very mediocre news in the update, how are you hoping for 60p. If you think the news isn't going to be bad then sell now while you can get nearly 40p. You also need to take another look at the graph, as mid December we were 32p and this BB was full of chatter about going to 20p again. Now despite oil being under $80 we're around 20% up since then and the chatter is about us going over 40p. That to me certainly doesn't look like a downward trend.

As to news in the update, production numbers will be very interesting. The Ghana Petroleum Commission haven't updated the production numbers for Jubilee and TEN since August. In august Jubilee produced around 97bopd despite some water injector issues (we were told these were easy to rectify) and new wells due to come online. An update on Kenya would also be nice, however not holding my breath on that one.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Biden-Administration-To-Purchase-More-Oil-For-SPR.html

14 million bought so far, 3 million now for April and then only another 283 million barrels to buy back. Oil should be back under $50 a barrel in no time at all...... errrrrm

That's only because I don't have your special information......or post from multiple users till they all get blocked by admin. But the good news for you is all my opinions are provided to you free of charge....so enjoy.

Exactly 3 weeks left to lift off .... should see the share price rise up to the trading statement and blast off from there if we have good results, an improved production forecast for 2024 and the oil price holds.

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/november-trading-update-6/

"Tullow’s next scheduled update will be its Trading Statement on 24 January 2024."